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Flawed Logic

Looks like Tim Purpura had a news conference  yesterday.  And it looks like he told the assembled that the Astros have just figured out that OBP Is Good--especially with runners in scoring position.

I wonder why it took the organization this long to figure it out, when they've had a paragon of the virtue in Lance Berkman playing at the major league level since 2000, but never mind that.

We're not gonna argue.  

At least with the premises.

Premise One:

Purpura and his staff spent a lot of time in the offseason dissecting what went badly for the Astros in the World Series. Their conclusion: The team didn't do well enough with its situational hitting.

"That's one area where we failed," Purpura said. "There's no doubt about it."

. . .

[H]e and his top lieutenants held a series of meetings in the offseason and talked about the problem. The question they weighed: "How do we become better situational hitters?"

OK.  Yes, the importance of the AB sure is magnified when the ducks're on the pond.  No question.

Alright, Premise Two:

"Purpura said they want the hitters in the organization to improve their on-base percentage, which means see more pitches, work the count better and take walks, among other things."

No arguments here, either.  Gotta get on base.  Just gotta.

Conclusion per someone called "Justice B Hill"

Bringing in Preston Wilson should help

Rastronomicals' Rebuttal

Wilson's OBP w/ RISP in 2005:  .344
Houston's OBP w/ RISP in 2005: .348

Wilson's OBP overall in 2005:  .325
Houston's OBP overall in 2005 for nonpitchers: .329

Guess they made the decision to pick up Wilson before they rewrote the book. . . .

0 recs  |  3 comments

Comments

I Almost Didn't Write This
Because with what I've written before everyone's gonna think I hate Wilson.

And I don't.  Given his flaws, he can still help the Astros.  Shit, he could hit 25 or 30 homers.

And I do know that he hit .277 with RISP last year and slugged like .804, 16 points of AVG higher than the Astros overall and about 50 of slugging, if I'm remembering right.

But the article was about situational OBP, not situational slugging. . . .

It's like when I get those stupid urban legend emails, stories about how Bill Gates is sharing his fortune or whatever from my second cousin, I always go to about.com find the link that debunks 'em, and Reply All.

Crusader for Truth, that's me.

<sigh>

I don't have anything against Wilson,
but, when you look at his Coors-inflated numbers, I don't think he'll be more helpful than anyone we could have up from the minors.

And it is odd the franchise of Bagwell and Berkman just realizes OBP is kinda important.

I didn't even go there
You have a point though.

Like a dumbshit, I say above that Wilson slugged around .800 but of course that was his approximate OPS. He slugged .478.  It broke down .491 while with the Rockies and .443 while with the Nationals.  So yes, his numbers were inflated by Coors. But he legitimately should be able to do better than that .443 at Minute Maid.  RFK's almost as tough as Coors is easy.  Maybe .465--with that same .325 OBP?

And no, we don't have anyone in the minors ready to slug .465 at the major league level.  The upper levels of our system are devoid of power hitters.  For example, a nonprospect like Mike Coolbaugh led Round Rock in RBI's last year.  

The Astros slugged .40something last year, so in that regard, it's impossible to make the case Wilson won't help us in the raw power components.

And what's with this knee thing?

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