So here's how the season stats break out for the two teams vying to make Joe Maddon's new math become 9=1:
| Stat | Phillies | Rays |
| OPS+ | 103 | 103 |
| ERA+ | 115 | 114 |
| RZR | .821 | .836 |
| IF | .788 | .773 |
| OF | .879 | .919 |
It looks like a pretty evenly matched series. Both have capable and powerful offenses and though the Rays have the advantage in Starting Pitching, the Phillies have their bull pen set, where as the Rays appear to be in flux. Although, if David Price can do what he did on Sunday night then who cares? The defense breaks down to give the Phils the advantage in the infield, but the Rays outfield is just ridiculous. It's a really closely matched series at the macro level. Of course the micro level analysis leans towards the Rays primarily because of three men: Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, and Scott Kazmir. The latter who really had to labor in extra innings to earn the AL home field advantage and the formers who are just liabilities in Citizens Bank Park's friendly dimensions.
0 recs | 11 comments
surprised me
that their OPS+’s were the same. I figured the Phils would be higher, given that i’d heard over and over that their offense was a lot better than the average NL Club (i think they were pretty high up in runs scored). The opposite seemed true for the Rays, given the offensive superiority of the AL and my assumption that a team like the Rays which “struggled” during the regular season (says the ESPN and TBS people over and over). i remember a stat that was mentioned during one of their games in the alcs- the rays were 29th out of 31 teams at hitting with runners in scoring position, or something like that….maybe this is why caray, mccarver and their ilk are criticized so widely. for all their experience, they just don’t get what wins baseball games.
Evan Hochschild - October 21, 2008
Excuse my ignorance
But help me out here. What are those numbers and what do they mean?
Joe in Birmingham - October 21, 2008
They are the Team OPS and ERA adjusted for park and league.
It’s set to a scale where 100 is league average. Over 100 is better and under 100 is worse than league average.
Stephen Higdon - October 21, 2008
Thanks
That means both teams are slightly better than average hitters but both excel in pitching?
Wht does RZR mean ? and what looks like infield and outfield references?
Which teams should have been in the World Series based on those statistics?
Joe in Birmingham - October 22, 2008
Revised Zone Rate = RZR
It’s the Hardball Times’ defensive measure. Higher ratio means teams’ players got to more batted balls in their zones. RZR is mostly used to compare the defensive performance of individual players, but Hardball Times does aggregate RZR scores by team for both infield and outfield.
clack - October 22, 2008
Superior pitching and defenses for both teams
and only slightly above average hitting for both teams
bodes for a series of low scoring games.
Joe in Birmingham - October 23, 2008
I'm curious as to who thinks the Phillies sweep or win in five
That means that either Blanton’s match-up against Sonnanstine or Moyer’s vs. Garza end up as wins for the Phillies. That’s just ridiculous to think about.
Stephen Higdon - October 21, 2008
I didn't pick the Phillies in 4 or 5 games...
but I did pick them in 7 games.
Baseballmusings.com has a good comparison of the Rays’ and Phillies’ offenses.
http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/029832.php
He gives a slight edge to the Phillies’ offense.
I don’t think that Moyer and Blanton are that much of a liability. They may not be the favorites in their pitching matchups, but they have pitched well enough to think that their chance of winning their games isn’t outlandish. Blanton had a 4.20 ERA with the Phillies, and his 3.55 ERA at Citizens Bank Park was even better. Moyer had an ERA of 3.71 on the year, and his ERA since the ASB was 3.39. Sometimes the most effective pitchers against young hitter are soft tossers…so who knows?
clack - October 21, 2008
sort of along that line
I was listening to Chicago radio today and they had Scott Eyre on as he is a former Cub (now Phillie). He talked about how Moyer was thrown for a loop because the Brewers weren’t their usual hacktastic selves. I wish I could remember his description of the dugout exactly, but he said something like “the whole dugout was going whoa, what’s going on.”
Anyway, you may be right, but I don’t expect much from Moyer. Blanton and Myers have really been clutch. They have to keep that up. I’m not sure they will.
ol Pete - October 21, 2008
Rays in 6
Trever Miller and JP Howell neutralize Ryan Howard and for the most part Utley.
It just makes no sense that the Rays should get by the Red Sox, and then fall to the Phillies.
If Lidge blows a game as I (continue to) expect, that right there could cause the Phils to collapse.
Are the Phillies really going to use Moyer? With the rest they’ve had they should go to a three-man rotation . . .
But I guess the Rays ain’t complainin’—Look for the State of Florida to move to 9 – 0 in postseason series.
rastronomicals - October 22, 2008
your mention of Trevor Miller made me look up his career stats vs. Howard.
He has done well against Ryan Howard….286 BA and .660 OPS. But not much of a sample size (7 AB), which surprises me….I thought the Astros would have used Miller against Howard more than that.
clack - October 22, 2008
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