MLB.com is what it is- a source for direct news from the horse's mouth. A lot of the writing that is on their website isn't all that great, but I was really impressed with this article. Very detailed analysis, and what's more, it is full of praise for the change in organizational direction, in terms of our minor league affiliates. Especially important to note is the analysis on Brain Bogusevic, Bud Norris, Jason Castro, Polin Trinidad and Drew Sutton. There has been little to no good news coming out of our minor league system for the past few years. Now, with the addition of proven talent selectors, Ed Wade and Bobby Heck, hopefully the news will only get better.
What really interested me was the fact that that the writer of this article, Kevin T. Czerwinski, had this to say about Jason Castro:
Castro represents one of the best Draft picks Houston has made in years. He was a no-brainer when the Astros expended the 10th overall pick on him, and will provide the club with a legitimate star quality catcher for the better part of the next decade. Castro, who hits left-handed, batted .275 with two homers and 12 RBIs in the New York-Penn League before getting off to a ripping start in Hawaii Winter Baseball.
Wow. What a difference five months makes. As my article above this one details, I couldn't find one projection that had Castro becoming a star. Shows that maybe Ed and Bobby were stupid like foxes back in June, rather than just...well, stupid.
0 recs | 19 comments
I think we have to discount this report somewhat
it loses credibility saying the Castro pick was a “no-brainer” at the 10th pick. Perhaps Castro will be a valuable major leaguer some day, and he’s had some success in his first year of professional ball, but when virtually every commentator said the pick was a reach, how is that a no-brainer? Do we really want to give that much weight to his performance in A ball and the winter leagues, considering he was a polished college player already?
I wasn’t particularly struck by the depth of the analysis. For most of the players they mentioned a few of the basic stats, threw in OPS a couple places where the player had a particularly stellar number and added a few sentences about their bio and performance this year. It seems like media guide filler and I don’t detect much of a critical eye was applied, even to the guys they said slipped a rung.
Like you said, this is an arm of MLB probably published with the aim of keeping up interest in the offseason. I think you could say that the Astros system definitely hit bottom when we didn’t sign any of our top picks last year and bringing in Heck and this past draft are indications that we’re headed the right direction. But we’re not in a position to say we’ve got the next batch of homegrown stars like the Brewers or Rays just yet.
lnewcomer - November 1, 2008
good points, all
maybe it wasn’t as in depth as something you’d find on Baseball Prospectus, but at the same time, it is MLB.com. Again, the Castro pick was widely thought of as a reach at the time, but after Castro has improved seemingly with every AB, some people are starting to come around. again, jr towles was supposed to come in and hit 10 hrs, swipe 10 bags and get on base at around a .330 clip (guess), so obviously, nobody knows whats going to happen. i just thought it was telling that mlb.com (and id guess a lot of scouts, etc) went back on themselves so quickly after completely dismissing the castro pick. also, im an eternal optimist, so if theres something out there positive about our farm system, i will pimp it to the fullest. unless of course, its complete bullshit, which i didnt think about this particular article
Evan Hochschild - November 1, 2008
Looks like the Washington Times called it a no-brainer, too..way back in August!
AstroAndy - November 1, 2008
Good find
What a way to kill time on a Saturday, great research.
Stephen Higdon - November 1, 2008
I accidentally came across it while looking up signing bonuses. Serendipity!
AstroAndy - November 1, 2008
That's an interesting interview:
"Q: What was your reaction when you learned you’d been drafted by the Astros? Did you know in advance that they were looking to pick you?
A: Not until the draft was about 10, 15 minutes away, and I was getting on a plane to go to Cal State-Fullerton for the Super Regionals. I really didn’t know the Astros had much interest at the 10th pick until maybe 10 minutes before the draft, and I didn’t find out until after the airplane landed and it had already happened."
That’s surprising. One would expect the Astros to be in contact with their 1st round pick. So maybe their preferred 1st rounder was taken. I wonder who they expected to take, if that was the case.
Only_A_Lad - November 1, 2008
I wonder who it could have been
Because the board was pretty well known and I can’t recall there being an surprises.
Stephen Higdon - November 2, 2008
Lets put this a different way
From what is coming out of Texas, Smoak is going to start off the season in A+ at the worse with some thoughts of putting him in AA to start the season. Most people see him ready by ST of 2010.
How can Castro be a no-brainer if the guy behind him is going to be MLB ready with GG defense before Castro?
More of an Astros fluff piece than anything else.
laxtonto - November 1, 2008
i dont know if it was a complete Astros fluff piece
it’s not like Allison Footer wrote it…and yes Smoak is doing well.
Evan Hochschild - November 1, 2008
If Footer wrote it
Castro would have been described as the organization’s worst mistake in years. She can’t write anything without being excessively negative. I like that she’s willing to go against the “company line,” but she’s way too pessimistic about everything.
It’s not really a “fluff piece,” but it’s a tad hyperbolic – particularly about Castro. Nothing about him screams “star player.” He really seems like more of a solid regular player, and there’s nothing wrong with that.
Smoak is an impressive hitter. But the Astros really needed up-the-middle prospects, and they’ve acquired solid hitting prospects at 1B elsewhere in the draft. If drafting Castro early allowed them to shift money and create a better draft class overall, then Castro was the right choice. Smoak would have cost them another million in signing bonus. Presumably, that money was spent on signing better talent further down.
Seriously, we need to stop trying to evaluate the class less than six months after the draft. It’s a little premature. Thinks look good right now, but it’s going to take another year to see anything definite.
Only_A_Lad - November 1, 2008
I don't think we're generalizing about the draft class
I think we’ve been keeping tabs on players who are performing well right now to emphasize that all is not dead on the farm. It certainly is too soon to say meaningful things about Castro, but it’s refreshing to see that he’s performing well after his less than stellar start to his professional career.
Besides, what else would write about? Though we could have a series on who the worst beat writer is (but would it really even be a contest…RJ).
Stephen Higdon - November 1, 2008
Not even close.
Footer’s take is refreshing, compared to the sort of bullshit and cheerleading spewed by the Chronicle. Justice is in close competition with JdJO, though. They’re both awful.
You’re right, though – there’s very little else to right about right now, as far as the Astros go. But it can only be retread so many times; we’re essentially saying the same things today that we said a week ago – Castro is impressing everyone in Hawaii, and the rest of the class isn’t doing so poorly, either. The Smoak vs. Castro thing keeps being argued, and it won’t ever be settled. Even if Castro has an awesome career, pundits will say that the Astros just got lucky.
Only_A_Lad - November 1, 2008
Because Smoak
Runs into a postional long jam which has also been prominent feature in the unraveling of our farm system — young talent over ripens in the farm system and never gets a chance to produce. I’m not saying I wouldn’t love to have Smoak, but Castro’s performing at a level right now that justifies the chance the Astros took with him. Whereas, two months ago, the baseball world was telling everyone in Houston how dumb they were.
I remember sitting at my desk watching the MLB Draft Tracker tick by and praying for Smoak and the good fortune we had in having him fall to us. I was shocked, but at least now I don’t have to feel as swindled, because it appears that Castro might just pan out or give us cause to believe as much right now.
Stephen Higdon - November 1, 2008
Well, if you take Smoak
and he develops into a great 1B, it’s not really an issue even if Berkman blocks him. You can either trade or release (as in, don’t pursue him as an FA) Berkman when his time comes (blasphemy, I know), or trade Smoak for something good.
As I said, this was in all likelihood a signability concern. And if the money saved on Castro allowed the Astros to take guys like Disher and Lyles and Seaton, then it was worth it. Drayton won’t commit 12 million to the draft, and there’s really very little reason you have to. Just pick well in the later rounds. And the Astros appear to have done that.
Only_A_Lad - November 1, 2008
consensus?
so is it safe to say that:
1) the mlb.com article wasn’t THAT great. or at least as good as i made it seem. i was just surprised they didn’t mention one guy.
2) smoak vs. castro will continue to be debated
3) we’ve over saturated the market, as far as minor league/castro stories. point taken. we’ll limit them to the once a week AFL/Hawaii updates
Evan Hochschild - November 1, 2008
Since major leaguers aren’t playing right now, and trade news will be pretty slow this offseason, minor league stories don’t bug me much.
But then again, I have an Astros addiction.
AstroAndy - November 1, 2008
Polin Trinidad
Was someone that I had barely heard about, so it was useful for that. He’s someone to be excited about because he’s young and potentially good.
Stephen Higdon - November 1, 2008
got added to the 40...
to protect him from the rule 5… Nice arm, has a chance to be a above average bull pen arm.
laxtonto - November 2, 2008
We'll need
All the bull pen arms we can find with the cast of characters we have in our starting rotation. Sampson and Geary need to make full recoveries.
Stephen Higdon - November 2, 2008
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