The Crawfish Boxes

While I agree that there’s no way we should expect Wolf to put up a full season with numbers like he put up for us in the last half, I don’t think he’s going to implode next year, so this news makes me nervous rather than excited. There is a reasonable price for Wolf’s services, but with six other teams in the running, I have this nagging feeling that Wade is going to severely overpay for one of “his” guys.

Also, if we don’t sign Wolf, Wade had better have some kind of backup plan to get us a starter. I will feel sick if we have to replace Wolf’s spot in the lineup with some kind of Alberto Arias/Jack Cassel/Runelvys Hernandez type revolving door. Say what you will about Wolf, but he was better than those guys.

I don't know

I’ve got a good feeling about Arias for some reason.

My hope is that this will signal to Drayton that he has to let Wade spend some money to get another pitcher and we sign some worth the dollars and feign competitiveness at least.

Just to clarify, I consider the “line in the sand” on Wolf to be 3 years @ 8mil each. Anything more than that is, to me, severely overpaying. If you go for 2 years, $8mil each seems like reasonable market value. For three years, think $7mil-ish. The numbers I’m seeing thrown about the internet most often are 3 years at $10mil each, in which case, I’d rather the Astros take their draft pick and try to sign someone else. I’m sure entropic soul has a candidate in mind.

As for Arias, I was perhaps a little hasty in dismissing his possible contributions. I agree with you that he has potential, but my gut tells me he won’t find his polish in 2009…my gut says he’s a Wandy-style late-bloomer.

Dierkes, at MLBTradeRumors

Thinks 3 years/$30 million. If Ed Wade does that….

Unfortunately I concur with you all to heartily on your Arias take.

On the other hand,

Rotoworld:

Randy Wolf (Astros) – Wolf’s improvement after leaving San Diego — his ERA went from 4.74 in 21 starts prior to the trade to 3.57 in 12 starts for the Astros — figures to land him a multiyear deal, very likely with Houston.

Previous prediction: None
New prediction: Astros – two years, $12 million

I also meant to say that 2 yrs. at $6mil each seems like a good deal to me, but I also wouldn’t buy the “he broke the bank, so we can’t get anyone else” line from the front office.

I'm with clack

I don’t think that’ll happen. I’m kinda shocked that rotoworld went with that.

Though, I’d do that deal for some innings eating insurance — no doubt.

Wolf was paid $9 million last year (between both Astros and Padres)....

He had a $4.35 million base salary plus $175,000 bonus/start up to 30 starts. That is why he likely will be paid more than we may have expected. Given his nice ending performance for the Astros, it’s natural that he might look forward to a salary “raise” over the $9 million he was paid in 08. And it is unlikely that the Astros could realistically expect to sign him for less than he was paid last year. Maybe Wolf might accept some trade off between annual salary and more guaranteed years on his contract…but that opens up a new set of issues. So, yes, the concern about Wade overpaying for Wolf is real.

If the Astros intend to pay Wolf $10 million/year…then why not pay the extra few million to get Sheets? Sheets’ upside performance is much greater than Wolf, and the downside collapse possibility is lower. As I pointed out in a previous post, Sheets’ history indicates that he is less injury prone and more durable/reliable than Wolf. Just check their respective innings pitched over the last 4 or 5 years.

clack - November 12, 2008 reply

In that case, I think we have to differ to the chant below you.

Ah, the world of baseball...

…where if one person decides to overpay you, and you don’t f—- things up in a major way, you can legitimately expect a raise from someone else who wasn’t stupid enough to overpay you earlier.

BEN SHEETS BEN SHEETS BEN SHEETS

entropic soul - November 12, 2008 reply

I hope that for the remainder of the Off-Season

That’s the only thing you comment with.

It's going on every new post talking about acquiring pitching

until we get him. :)

entropic soul - November 12, 2008 reply

fans opinions don't really mean anything

but with possible trades and competition between the Brewers and the Red Sox and Yankees, I’ve been reading their blogs/forums a bit. The majority think Sheets is a great idea.

ol Pete - November 12, 2008 reply

Hopefully the allure of lots of off-season hunting expeditions

With Roy and Lance is enough to seal the deal. I mean, who else can offer that?

He seems like a good ol' boy to me

I have a hard time picturing him as a Yankee or Red Sox. I’m not so sure I want him in the NL Central though.

ol Pete - November 12, 2008 reply

is that to the tune of the Yao Ming song?

Only_A_Lad - November 12, 2008 reply

Now that you mention it

It does sound like it. I hadn’t caught that.

You guys are all stupid.

We all totally know that he’s going to win 20 games and the CY award next year if we sign him.

Seriously though, what should we offer Sheets? Something like two years, base contract of 5 mil plus incentives which could max out to how much?

jonthefon - November 12, 2008 reply

I'd offer

2 years/$28 million
+ 5 million incentives for IP and Cy Young balloting
An extra $2 million per year if he reaches 170 IP
An extra $1 million if he’s in the top three in Cy Young
An extra $2 million if he’s 1st or 2nd.

A lot better way to spend $30+ million than on 3 years of Wolf.

I'd offer

an all you can eat buffet,
a Roger Clemens autograph session,
two (2) tickets to any Rockets game of his choice
whatever cash Drayton has in his wallet,
the love and adulation of the city of Houston and south Texas (until he screws up).
The moon and the stars

or, you know, three years at about $10 million/year. Probably with some escalators.

Really? You think he’s worth $14 million.

Only_A_Lad - November 12, 2008 reply

I do

Tango Tiger’s FA value estimator has him pegged at that and so does Beyond the Box Score. I think he’s due for at least 160 IP and with a RA of 4.15. That would be about 1 RA less than Wolf.

Also

Add in Marquee value and that’s a least another $1 million to his total value (not just his performance value). Plus, he pushes the Astros closer to the playoffs, etc. So I don’t think the base of $14 is too far away from the mark. Perhaps my escalators are a too little generous though.

I'd do it.

I’d even tack on a third year if I needed to.

entropic soul - November 12, 2008 reply

As an option, certainly

and possibly even as a guarantee

Only_A_Lad - November 12, 2008 reply

Man

Why don’t we run this team?

I don't know, dude

I mean, it’s not like Ed Wade doesn’t hear fans. Sports call-in shows get trade ideas all the time. Brilliant ones: like trading Michael Bourn for Torii Hunter, or Backe for Santana. Fans could clearly run this team better than the GMs, and it’s a shame that Wade and the Astros don’t listen to us.

Only_A_Lad - November 13, 2008 reply

While I would like to see the Astros pick up a No. 1 draft pick...

for Brocail, it’s hard to believe that teams would be willing to pay Brocail more than the Astros PLUS knowingly give up 2 draft picks for him. However, who knows? Teams do strange things. I wonder if the current interest by other teams in Brocail is premised on the hope that the Astros won’t offer him arbitration.

I like this quote from Wade:

“If it doesn’t get done by Friday, then we’re going to have to be there looking in the market for other alternatives, we can’t allow this to drag out to where we can’t find viable alternatives to fill our needs.”

I’m glad to see that he isn’t going to sit around and wait on players to make their decisions. You sometimes can end up screwed by that approach.

clack - November 13, 2008 reply

I’d love to see the Astros pick up the compensatory pick, too, and like you, I think that the majority of teams will see his salary demand + draft pick and say no thanks.

But there is a little bit of hope. It’s possible that a team with an ailing bullpen needs him, and they are snagging other people’s draft picks because FA’s are leaving their team…I don’t know about Milwaukee’s bullpen, but if they lose Sabathia and Sheets, they’re going to have an abundance of draft picks and may be able to afford picking up Brocail. I’m not saying they’re a match or anything, just using their situation as an example.

AstroAndy - November 13, 2008 reply

another possibility arises if a team already plans to sign another Type A player....

Once you sign a Type A player, you can sign more without any more draft losses. I suspect that a team like the Yankees expect to sign other Type A players, and they might not be bothered by Brocail’s status. Maybe the same might be the case for the Red Sox.

clack - November 13, 2008 reply

Money has him with the Brewers

After their joke of a bullpen in 2008, they’ll do what it takes to had some consistency to it. And, like you said, they’re not going to be worried about draft picks.

That was supposed to be "My Money"

That’s an interesting situation, then, if we sign Sheets and Milwaukee takes Brocail. We’d basically switch places in the draft, with the Astros taking the Brewers’ 27th spot and the Brewers moving up six slots to the 21st choice. And then we’d both get picks in the compensation round.

I should seriously be writing a paper right now instead of thinking about these things.

AstroAndy - November 13, 2008 reply

Yeah...

Me too.

nah

Brewers had a bunch of guys who usually performed well and a couple clunkers. Yost would just run the clunkers out there. Clunkers gone – Yost gone.

Joke guys include McClung, Villanueva (gotta love him just for standing up to Pujols), Riske (bum elbow but good track record), Stetter the LOOGY, Coffey who has been up and down in his career but costs little and was great at the end of the year plus some guys who are on the cusp between AAA and MLB.

Melvin has said he won’t spend a lot on the bullpen including the closer and that’s what the Brewers need. If he were cheap and could close there might be a chance but 3/30 or that neighborhood – no way.

ol Pete - November 13, 2008 reply

Randy Wolf wasn't even that good for you guys last year.

Sure, he had a 3.57 ERA, but ERA depends on a lot of things besides pitcher skill, like fielding, ballpark, luck, etc.

He had nearly the same K/BB ratio for Houston and his tRA* dropped from 5.10 to about 4.70, mostly due to some line drives turning into flyballs (but with a lower HR/FB%)

Sky Kalkman - November 13, 2008 reply

I would think that Minute Maid would be a hitter's park

ol Pete - November 13, 2008 reply

surprisingly, it isn't.

It’s always been fairly middle-of-the-pack in park factors.

Only_A_Lad - November 13, 2008 reply

Almost

Perfectly neutral.

His DIPS 3.0

By my calculation, was 5.00. All of his success came from the fact that his FB didn’t go for HR and that he had one of the better defenses helping him out (LOB%). It’s infuriating that Ed Wade can even consider Wolf as a viable solution because if he just had anyone around him dissect the numbers, he’d realize how dumb of an idea that it is.

His Marcel, from Colin Wyers, looks terrible. It’ll be embarrassing if Wade pulls this deal off and lets Sheets, or someone of his caliber, walk away.