So has Ike really destroyed the Astros? The Astros started off September on a roll winning 9 of their first 10 games and scored an average of 6.1 runs per game while allowing just 2.6 runs per game and had 4 shutouts. The Astros were on a roll and looked like they were destined to take over the Wild Card lead which looked like an impossible feat just a month before... The Astros were making up games by leaps and bounds with the Brewers going on a dry spell winning just 3 of their first 11 games in September.
Then along comes Hurricane Ike... Hurricane Ike devastated the Houston area taking power from a majority of the season, destroying homes and buildings and evidently... any chance the Astros had at making the playoffs. In an attempt to get the games played, Bud Selig moved 2 of the Astros home games against the Chicago Cubs to Milwaukee, just 92 miles north of Chicago in what was supposed to be neutral ground, while the Astros flew 1,272 miles north, leaving their broken homes and families behind to play 2 baseball games in front of 30,000+ Cubs fans.
And so the devastation sets in. The Astros are immediately no hit by Carlos Zambrano in a 5-0 shutout and then turn around the next night and get 1 hit by Ted Lilly and friends in a 6-1 loss. After getting destroyed by the Cubs 2 games, they then fly 1,469 miles to Miami to face the Marlins at Dolphin stadium and put up an equally pathetic effort as they are beat 5-1, then 14-2 and then 8-1 in 3 straight games by the Marlins.
Since Ike, the Astros have managed to score 5 runs in 5 games; 1.1 runs less than they were averaging before Ike. They also managed to give up 7.6 runs per game over that 5 game stretch; 5 runs per game more than they averaged the 1st 10 games of the month.
So the question is... what do you think happened to the Astros? Do you think it was just time for them to get off their pedestal of being the best team in baseball since the All-Star break? Or do you think that Ike is the reason for their sudden downfall... what about the "neutral field" games played at Wrigley North? Maybe it was just the 2 game break that threw the Astros off... Or maybe some combination of them all.
0 recs | 9 comments
I think it is a combination of factors....
Undoubtedly, pre-Ike, the Astros were winning at a pace which is impossible to maintain over the long term. It’s only a question of when you have some kind of correction. You hope that the momentum of winning continues for another month and into the playoffs, but the correction is always susceptible to being triggered by some bad luck type events, such as injuries or in this case a huge disruption in their season. The way the first game back occurred, the Astros were almost guaranteed losses in Milwaukee, and now the momentum has been broken and is swinging back the other way. It’s sad, really. The Astros had a golden opportunity in the Wild Card race this week, with other teams faltering. But that’s just the way it is.
At this point, I’m sure this has started to get into the heads of the Astros’ players, and they just need to concentrate on playing competitive games (which they are NOT, right now) and then see where they stand when the season is over. As fans, we just need to be happy that the Astros gave us a much more exciting ride than we would have expected one or two months ago.
clack - September 19, 2008
BTW, I avoided the term "perfect storm" in the post above....
but really I think that is a good description of what happened to the Astros.
clack - September 19, 2008
I really don't think we can chalk this one up to Ike, Milwaukee, or even the delay caused by the two.
The fact is that the Astros were playing ridiculously well in August. Guys like Geoff Blum and Mark Loretta were making up a great deal of offensive production. Brian Moehler continued to “dominate.” Wigginton was the best hitter on the roster.
We can’t expect that type of production to continue longer than a month. Blum and Loretta are just bench players, and Moehler has gotten lucky.
Wigginton might be able to maintain this production in coming seasons. He’s posting a 133 OPS+, and that’s largely due to a substantial increase in his BA, a moderate increase in BB, and a healthy amount of power. Oddly enough, his BABIP has actually decreased over the past few seasons, so that gives me hope that he’ll be good in years to come.
But, eventually, hot teams have to cool off. And that’s as easily attributed to “natural” causes as it is to the hurricane and Bud Selig.
Only_A_Lad - September 19, 2008
"correction" comes from the stock market...
and it’s a good analogy. The market can get ahead of itself, i.e., a momentum gathers which pushes prices above underlying fundamentals. The momentum might go on indefinitely until some event or “news,” causes the correction. You can have a huge disruptive event like 9/11, for instance, which causes a plunge in prices. Did 9/11 cause the plunge or was the market ready for a fall? Probably a combination of both.
I think it’s similar for the Astros situation. As you say, the Astros had some overperformance, like the Blum and Moehler examples (or relying on Abercrombie and Newhan). On the other hand, the momentum was strong and the winning might have continued longer (after all, the momentum was strong enough to overcome otherwise crippling injuries). But the hurricane and afermath became an event which unleashed the Astros’ correction. During the win streak, the Astros had been doing just enough to win, and when the obstacles pile up against you, it tips the balance. So I think it’s a combination of factors.
clack - September 19, 2008
A market correction
can’t be postponed forever, so it’s best to get it over with.
We only needed to hang on to momentum for a few more weeks.
Xan - September 19, 2008
true.
clack - September 19, 2008
Are we forgetting....
the first 60% of the season? Before Ike, before August, the Astros had lots of games they could have used to be in a much more competitive position so that they then could have let their “August miracle” set them up as a competitor for the division championship. The season is 162 games long and the Astros seem to take the first half of each year as vacation.
No whining allowed about Ike. In fact, I really lost interest in baseball, something I never thought could have happened, as Ike came into our lives.
P.S.: About 3 weeks ago a friend attended a luncheon where the inestimable Drayton spoke on the topic (I kid you not) “Finishing Like Champions”. By his count, he used the word “champion” or a derivative thereof once every 43 seconds during his speech. The first question asked during Q&A was: “Finishing like a champion is wonderful, but how about playing like a champion for the whole season?” The audience applauded. Drayton was clearly pissed, scowled, and simply said, “Next question!” The audience reportedly roared with laughter and there were only 2 more questions before the session ended.
bwhite2323 - September 19, 2008
INCREDIBLE
Stephen Higdon - September 19, 2008
I didn't expect
“something else” to be so high on the list…
Stros Bro - September 19, 2008
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