I went through and calculated the final DIPS for Oswalt, Moehler, Wolf, Backe, and Rodriguez (Wandy). These were the five guys who pitched a significant amount of the season as starters, project to be starters next year who we have decent enough data on, and are all possibilities or sure things for members of the 2009 starting rotation. While they are all possible candidates for the rotation next year, I hope that my analysis of their DIPS presents a compelling argument for Wolf not to be resigned and adds emphasis to our need for quality starting pitching for 2009.
While some of you may remember an article I wrote in my first week at the CFB, I'll refresh your memories and provide a link to the far more detailed explication of why DIPS is the measure I'm choosing to utilize for next year's forecasts. DIPS is calculated by applying league average rates for pitchers balls in play, negating the effects of defense and luck, by adjusting a pitchers' line drive rate and then adjusting the other rates accordingly. The adjusted number of batted ball results are then assigned league average results to determine the number of 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, and outs a pitcher would have allowed in a league average park with a league average defense behind them. It, in my opinion, provides the best inference to the the "skill" a pitcher demonstrated on the mound. It is further useful because DIPS have a large correlation with the pitcher's next year ERA/RA -- more so than FIP or ERA could wish to possess. In essence, it's one of the best tools to analyze a pitcher's season and then forecast the next season's performance.
While I'm uploading a spread sheet with all the numbers and calculations included, I'll go through a quick break down of the aforementioned pitchers' DIPS, and their DIPS-RA allowed difference -- something we can essentially call the luck/defense factor in their performance.
| Pitcher | DIPS | RA-DIPS |
| Roy Oswalt | 4.18 | (-).35 |
| Brian Moehler | 5.03 | (-).29 |
| Randy Wolf | 4.80 | (-).07 |
| Brandon Backe | 5.32 | .84 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | 4.09 | .17 |
(Source: Astros2008DIPS (me) and fangraphs.com)
Interestingly, our pitchers don't exhibit a universal tendency towards having been worse than their ERA or RA indicate, given that our defense was one of the best in the league. I'm not sure how valid Roy's numbers are due to his obvious mechinical issues earlier in the year, but perhaps we can't expect his total dominance during the second half to be the Roy we see all of next year, but certainly he'll still be our ace. For those of you who want to argue about Randy Wolf being signed, I urge you to download the spread sheet I've attached. I calculated Wolf's DIPS and differential for the full 2008 season and his partial season with the Astros. His split for just the Astros gave him a DIPS above 5.00 and he had a over a full run differential from his RA and DIPS. What I'm saying is: dude got lucky. I do not want the Astros to bank a few million on him getting that lucky again. Let's let him walk and take the compensation pick (something which could off-set the compensation pick we could lose if we sign a Type A FA pitcher...the upside on that transaction would be ridiculous).
The person who surprised me was Brandon Backe. He's been awful this year, but a 5.30 RA is both acceptable for a number five starter and above the replacement level ERA of 5.61 for NL Pitchers (Source: Baseball Between the Numbers, "Why Is Mario Mendoza So Important?" pg. 169). If Backe is really pitching at a 5.31 RA level, then we should expect his ERA to be slightly lower, say a 5.20 ERA. For less than a million dollars, I'd take Backe as an insurance policy against the likes of Jack Cassel and the rest of the Round Rock staff.
So what can we glean from our projected ERA's next year? We'll we can make value judgements as to whether or not we should sign these guys or let them go. Given the information I came up with, my rotation, if I were in charge, next year would be:
0 recs | 26 comments
odds
i hate to say it, but i bet randy wolf will be offered a nice chunk of change to stay. just my gut feeling. he was too “effective” while he was here to not be. unless somehow ed sees the light….
Evan Hochschild - September 29, 2008
he was also
too ineffective while not here to offer a lot…. he was pretty damn pathetic while with the Padres if you remember.
Stros Bro - September 29, 2008
Well
offering Wolf arbitration is a no-brainer. he’s probably going to sign with us or somebody else for more than he’d get in arbitration. i’d be okay with having him back, so long as he’s not our “high impact” FA signing, but more like 4/5 quality depth. i’d also be fine with him walking and getting some picks to off-set our high impact FA signing.
littlevisigoth - September 29, 2008
In a recent interview
He sounded pretty open to staying in Houston — stating something to the effect that the West Coast is no longer his priority. My hope is that he fields some good offers from the Brewers or the Phillies, perhaps even some of the big East Coast power houses. To say that I don’t want him to come back in an understatement…I just hope the arbitration gambit works for us.
Stephen Higdon - September 29, 2008
My guess is that the odds are good he will be back.
Wade likes him. Berkman says the players want him back and I suspect they are trying to talk him into staying. He will look cheap by comparison to other starting pitchers (e.g., Lohse re-signng for $10 million/year). It may or may not be a good result, but it seems likely.
clack - September 30, 2008
Backe
He hit .277 this year. Keep him.
Caradoc - September 29, 2008
Why Sheets?
I don’t understand the fixation on Sheets. There are tons of FA pitchers out there. What the Astros really need is for Drayton to open up the checkbook and get top talent (Sabathia? Lackey?) to lead the staff.
Others that you might get at a lower cost: Paul Byrd, Orlando Hernandez , Randy Johnson (!?), Derek Lowe, Horacio Ramirez, Brett Tomko…
Caradoc - September 29, 2008
Sabathia is going to get a max deal
Do you want the Astros giving him a 6 year 130+ million dollar contract?
Lackey is interesting… the others just don’t really interest me too much.
Stros Bro - September 29, 2008
Lackey is interesting
And someone I had totally overlooked.
Stephen Higdon - September 29, 2008
Sheets for two reasons
1) Before the injury, we definitely had him as our number one guy to go get. So it inspired the inquiry.
2) Now that he’s hurt, we have to ask ourselves, how much has changed because of this later hiccup? While the market is likely to over react and undervalue him, we might be able find ourselves an absolute steal. That is, if we can understand what value he presents us given the risk.
There are definite merits to focusing on Sheets right now, but don’t worry, I won’t ignore the other options. I just want to give Sheets a good thorough inspection before we label him “bunk.”
Stephen Higdon - September 29, 2008
I don't think you'll get an absolute steal
but I wouldn’t be deterred by his health.
Assuming that his elbow is non-significant he really hasn’t had any critical injuries. This year IMO he was mishandled. Example: in the beginning of the season he started in cold, damp Wrigley, sat out for an hour or so after it started raining, and then was allowed to pitch again. A sore triceps followed not long after. In the core of the season he pitched too many games with high pitch counts. Yost seemed to be obsessed with complete games for him and CC. Referring to CC and the Pirates CG in a blowout, he said in the NYT that it would have been a benefit in free agent negotiations if he got a no hitter. They appealed to the official scorer in the 6th inning IIRC – he should have been pulled then.
I think the constant complaining of the fan base over the years about his “mangina” or whatever as well as references in the media that he was injury prone, made him push too much and Yost was an enabler. I think the notion that it was a fear of the bullpen is wrong – I won’t go into that or this will turn into a novelette.
Getting back to his elbow, he made a comment just recently about being done for the year, but balancing that with what the team said about it, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up on the playoff roster and actually pitches some if (when!) the Brewers get past the Phillies.
ol Pete - September 30, 2008
Good stuff Pete
And good luck in the playoffs.
Stros Bro - September 30, 2008
speaking only for myself
you and clack and rastro and the rest of the crew should cruise through the good BCB once in a while. I know I’ve been the interloper down at the end of the bar around here.
Maybe even push the beer bottles and pizza boxes out of the way of Entropic and bring him along.
ol Pete - September 30, 2008
I probably will during the playoffs if I'm around a computer and watching baseball
Stros Bro - September 30, 2008
Sheets done for the season
A muscle tear in the flexor muscle. Sounds like something that isn’t a big deal for the future, but I haven’t stayed at a Holiday Inn in quite a while.
ol Pete - September 30, 2008
I'm so happy to hear that
It just validates me pouring over the PAP data. Nothing structural…just over use and abuse.
Good news for his suitors and him if he’s approached/marketed the correct way.
Stephen Higdon - October 1, 2008
Gord Ash Brewers exec on the radio today
My paraphrase: no structural damage, no ligament or tendon problems, no TJ surgery – used the word “minute” to describe the tears in the muscle – said that he wouldn’t be available for this series and probably not the next.
So he might be available if the Brewers can get to the WS…
ol Pete - October 1, 2008
question
are you from Milwaukee or Wisconsin in general? I ask because I was born there and my family is from there. We lived in Cudahy, just south of Milwaukee.
Evan Hochschild - October 1, 2008
Milwaukee
the Bay View neighborhood so not so far from Cudahy dere hey!
ol Pete - October 1, 2008
hahah
i should’ve just spelt it “M’waukee” as I’ve never heard someone from Milwaukee pronounce the “il”….well, I’m not a Brewers fan, and my family lost any Brewers fan in them once we moved to Houston (mostly once I became a die-hard Astros fan). but- i will be rooting for ya’ll to win. definitely to beat the cubs (hey, i actually AM a packer fan, so my dis-taste for chicago runs deep). i’ve followed the rays since before the season began, so i hope they make it to the WS as well, but when the chips are down, i have a feeling i’d root for da Beer Makers, if it came to that. which i hope it does. have a Usinger’s in my honor during the game (if you’re not at work..or even if you are).
Evan Hochschild - October 1, 2008
in other news
if someone else has already posted this, or commented, i apologize. i just thought it to be sorta funny, sorta cool and also sorta messed up:
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2008/09/29/brewers-management-thanks-ned-yost/
Evan Hochschild - October 1, 2008
Melvin who seemed to love the guy tried to contact him and was unable. I suspect he’s bumming big time. He probably imagines that he should be in Philly right now, but if he were still in charge we’d probably be hearing the speech about how the team has taken another step forward, blah, blah, blah…
ol Pete - October 1, 2008
Horacio Ramirez, Brett Tomko? Are you kidding?
I’d rather have Backe to tell you the truth. And that’s not saying much. Paul Byrd looks like he is at the end of the line. I don’t see Randy Johnson pitching anywhere but Arizona at this point. Derek Lowe would be OK at the right price and right contract term. But I have my doubts that he will be cheap enough to offset his age.
clack - September 30, 2008
No
Randy wants out of Arizona or Arizona doesn’t want him back…one of those two.
Stephen Higdon - September 30, 2008
Nice Analysis
Quick Point: I think it’d be important to figure out why Randy Wolf’s DIPS is a full point off his real ERA.
The reason I say this is because, if I understand it correctly, the DIPS methodology essentially replaces a team’s entire defense with a league average defense. But it assigns league averages for line drives, as well. One of those things seems like it will trend toward the mean (line drive %), while the other one seems like it may actually stay at about the same level over consecutive seasons (team defense).
So if the big swing in Wolf’s numbers is due to line drive percentage, I’m more inclined to let him go somewhere else. But if it’s due to SS-2B doing a good job at turning a double play, then maybe we shouldn’t expect his ERA to deviate that much if we can expect our SS-2B to continue their good work.
AstroAndy - September 30, 2008
You raise good points
Combing back through the numbers, Wolf’s Astros-split appears to be off because adjusting to league average defense kills him. He had an above average LOB% which reinforces this. His line-drive rates weren’t off league average, but his HR/FB were well below average.
Because there was a lot of defense involved, I guess I have to soften my stance on Wolf, but I can’t too much. Wolf played in the best pitcher’s park in the league and then in front of the best defense (RZR) in the league as well. While our defense will, hopefully, be this good next year, Wolf still has built his house on a precarious foundation. His HR should go up, which is not good for someone with his BB% and all it takes is a misplay or two a game on a BIP and he’s suddenly a number 4-5 pitcher again.
Given that risk, I’ll take a compensation pick and say goodbye.
Stephen Higdon - October 1, 2008
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