I was inspired to get fancy by BtB and plugged the Astros WAR Projection Project into a binomial distribution function to determine what the probability was that the Astros actually hit the mark our input projected. The actual probability was .531, so I understated the probability, slightly, in the title.
I know this isn't entirely accurate, but I thought it would be fun none the less.
0 recs | 7 comments
::head explodes::
When statistical analysis goes too far….
DbacksSkins - January 11, 2009
Joe Morgan voice:
YOU DON’T PLAY BASEBALL WITH CALCULATORS, DAMMIT!
Seriously though, good job. Can you figure out what the probability is for 90 wins?
Only_A_Lad - January 11, 2009
I got 18%, using DQ's sheet.
Here’s the total:
115 0.02
110 0.08
105 0.69
100 2.22
95 9.09
90 18.7
85 41.2
80 58.8
75 81.3
70 90.9
65 97.7
60 99.3
55 99.9
R.J. Anderson - January 11, 2009
Hmmmmm
I wonder what i did terribly wrong?
Stephen Higdon - January 11, 2009
Nevermind
Like a jackass I put in the cumulative probability. I got 6.26% (I still can’t figure out where the disconnect is, I used 83, 162, .512345679, and 1).
I should really not be blogging at 5:00 AM at the peak of insomnia.
Stephen Higdon - January 11, 2009
My formula is:
=100-(100*BINOMDIST(O23/2,81,0.51234568,1))
With O23 set to 83, or whatever wins total you want.
R.J. Anderson - January 11, 2009
So.. there is a chance we can win 115 games?
Sweet!
entropic soul - January 11, 2009
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