Monday's Quick Hits
by David Coleman on Oct 12, 2009 1:28 PM CDT
in Houston Astros Hot Stove News
Not much going on besides the managerial search, but there were a couple of stories that caught my eye:
- Could Tony LaRussa be out in St. Louis? Tony will retire rather than accept a job elsewhere, but it's interesting to think through the possibilities his leaving would potentially have. First off, would the Cards job be more enticing than the Astros job? Will that limit the managerial pool in Houston's search? Second, does that make Dave Duncan available? Could the Astros land someone like Duncan if they threw enough money at him? Just one of those stories that could create potential ripples that will affect the entire off-season.
- R.J. Anderson over at D.Ray's Bay wonders if J.R. Towles makes sense as a trade candidate for Tampa Bay. Obviously the Astros don't have much faith in Towles and special advisor for the Rays Gerry Hunsicker has proven to be a fan of guys he drafted with the Astros (see Zobrist, Ben). Does it make sense for the Astros? Jason Castro will get a chance to win the starting job sooner rather than later. I don't think Houston wants to break in a young backstop before breaking in another in Castro, so I could see them taking a one-year flier on someone like Benjie Molina before giving Castro a chance to win the job by midseason. Tampa Bay also has a surplus of pitching, so maybe a swap of Andy Sonnanstine or Jeremy Hellickson would be enough to get it done.
- Since we've already discussed some potential deals, would the Astros think about trading for Matt Gamel? The 23-year old is a year younger than Chris Johnson, and has a better minor league record. Gamel flashed more power in the minors, with an career minor-league OPS of .862 compared to Johnson's .726. They're apparently looking for pitching, but would they be happy with Yorman Bazardo or Polin Trinidad? Putting together a bigger deal with Wandy and J.J. Hardy might be more appealing, but an under-the-radar deal for Gamel might make the most sense long-term.
- A couple of managerial notes: This report out of Boston shows the Astros have gotten permission to interview Red Sox third baseman Tim Bogar and bench coach Brad Mills. Add them to the confirmed list that includes Manny Acta, who will probably get the first interview this week. I'll have a post later today on Acta going over his background and managerial career. UPDATE: McTaggart added a couple more confirmed names in Bob Melvin and Al Pedrique, while also running down how the hiring process will shake out.
Gamel is one of the top hitting prospects in the baseball; so, yes, I would think most teams would be interested in trading for him. However, one downside to Gamel is that he isn’t a very good fielder at 3d base. I don’t know how bad he is; maybe ol’ Pete or someone can tell us.
R.J. Anderson’s article was written with the view that Towles is a “buy low” candidate. I get the impression that the article envisions substantially less trading value than Sonnastine for Towles. I don’t have a problem with trading Towles—given that the Astros’ front office seems to be down on him—- but I would hate to see the Astros trade him at too discounted a value. Anderson also suggests that maybe Ed Wade would throw in Felipe Paulino. (I think that was supposed to be “ha, ha”.)
clack - October 12, 2009
Gamel's fielding
He can make all the plays at 3rd. He has pretty good hands and a strong arm. But he is inconsistent. To me that means he could stick and become an above average fielder, but the standard blogosphere evaluation is that he is a butcher. He has been trashed by the likes of Keith Law and has a really high error total in the minors and I think he has 5 in the limited time he has played in the majors.
You know, you watch him play and its wow, nice, great, ohhhhhh…
ol Pete - October 12, 2009
now that you mention it, I recall a Brewers-Astros game in which Gamel made a spectacular play at 3d base (maybe two even), but then made a bad routine play.
clack - October 12, 2009
I always wonder how much the error statistic cause fielders to lay off difficult plays entirely just so they don’t wind up looking like they botched them. That’s why I have such great distaste for the statistic. Watch a ball sail by and act like you had no chance to get to it, and you probably won’t be charged with an error. Dive at the ball and accidentally knock it aside while doing your best to make the play, your fielding percentage takes a hit.
OremLK - October 12, 2009
Gamel's strikeout rate is really terrible
In just 128 ABs this season he already struck out 54 times. At AAA he struck out 32.6% of the time this year.
OremLK - October 12, 2009
better than hitting into a DP
Timothy De Block - October 13, 2009
Being able to put the ball in play is never a problem. Striking out more is not the solution to staying out of GIDPs. The Astros’ GIDP problem resulted from two things—too many over-aggressive free swingers and too many slow guys not hustling to first base. The cure to staying out of GIDPs is fixing those problems, not trading for a guy who strikes out a third of the time.
OremLK - October 13, 2009
Strikeouts
Mat Gamel struck out 22% of the time through out his minor league career, so that 32.6% by all indications will come down.
My belief though is that strikeouts are over rated as an evaluation tool for hitters. Given the choice between someone who hits into more DP’s or someone who K’s I’ll take the guy that K’s more often than not.
Looking at the roster the top 3 hitters that K are Bourn, Pence and Berkman. The top 3 hitters that hit into DP’s are Tejada, Pence and Lee. Which set of hitters would you take? Personally I’m going Bourn, Pence and Berkman who have an avg OBP of .366. Tejada, Pence and Lee have avg OBP of .343.
They key to a good lineup is to not make outs you accomplish that by having guys with high OBP and maximizing your lineup. Often times strikeouts come with a guy who has a high OBP, Adam Dunn being a prime example. Don’t get me wrong strikeouts are bad, but I don’t buy into them being as bad as some people make them out to be. I consider double plays to be worse than strikeouts and so I gravitate away from high DP guys.
Timothy De Block - October 13, 2009
I agree with much of what you say. However, I would say that a high K rate is of more concern if the hitter does not have a lot of power. Gamel has pretty good power, based on both ISO and HRs, and his brief ML experience projects to about 25 HRs over a full season. For most hitters, Ks are part of the HR power package. Berkman’s K rate was 22.6% during his rookie season and was 21.3% last year. This is the reason I am concerned about Chris Johnson’s K rate (about 22.5% in two RR seasons). Johnson hasn’t shown the same kind of HR power and ISO as Gamel. Also, Johnson is much less likely to take walks than Gamel. Although Gamel and Johnson seem similar in the propensity to strike out, Johnson doesn’t make up for it with a lot of power and a good OBP.
clack - October 13, 2009
Ala Preston Wilson contact hitter who doesn’t take the walk and strikes out a lot.
Timothy De Block - October 13, 2009
I agree that strikeouts are overrated and OBP is the most important stat for building a strong lineup. However, there is a certain point when K rate becomes a huge red flag. Even though Gamel struck out less (though still a lot) earlier in his career, last year’s performance is one of those gigantic red flags.
By the way, I don’t agree that strikeouts come with a guy who has high OBP. I don’t see much correlation there either way, and if there is one, it’s probably the exact opposite… striking out more = worse pitch recognition and less plate discipline = lower OBP. But, as I said, I don’t think that necessarily follows.
As clack said striking out a lot may correlate better with power. But if you ask me, OBP is a lot more important than slugging.
OremLK - October 13, 2009
I guess I should clarify I don’t think that high strikeouts come with high OBP guys all the time and isn’t a requirement for a guy to have a high OBP. However you can point to a lot of hitters who have a high strikeout total but get on base more than someone who hits for a .300 avg.
Striking out more doesn’t necessarily mean worse pitch recognition, because you have to factor in the umpires and the fact that hitters with good pitch recognition will wait for their pitch.Umpires tend to have different strike zones, and hitters with good plate discipline will get rung up for what they think is a ball and the umpire calls a strike.
Mat Gamel had a 128 AB’s this past season, I’d consider that a small sample size, compared to his 1983 AB’s in the minors. at AAA in 294 AB’s he struck out 99 times for a 33.7%. At AA in 508 AB’s he struck out 111 times for a 21.9% clip. At the lower levels it ranges from 20% to 24% so it could be said that yes at each level his strikeout % goes up, but only slightly and it’s going to take about 450-500 AB’s for him to “figure” it out and at that point i’d take what his strikeout % is at face value. 128 AB’s at this point is just to early to determine what his true K % is going to be. I don’t think it’ll be as low as 22% a the MLB level but I can say for sure it’s not going to stay at that 33% clip.
Timothy De Block - October 14, 2009
If you want a power hitter, you usually have to accept high strike outs—the correllation is that high. Pujols is viewed as a freakishly good player because of his combination of OBP, SLG, and low strike outs. Lee is unusual as a low K slugger, but his walk rate is also poor.
OBP isn’t as strongly correllated with K rate. However, there is a definite profile of high power, high OBP, high K hitters. with the most extreme of those hitters called three true outcome players. Ensberg, Berkman, and Adam Dunn are among those who fit that group. Mark Reynolds, the 3d baseman, is becoming a leading name for that group (38.6% K rate—yikes!).
I think the Astros have too many high contact rate hitters in their lineup…thus the huge number of GIDPs. The Astros could use a three true outcome hitter at 3d base, IMO—-if he is good.
clack - October 14, 2009
I didn’t want to make that post too long, but one of the reasons I brought up Sonnanstine is that he’s sort of a buy-low guy himself. His ERA has never really settled down and though he has good upside, the Rays have good depth on their pitching staff and may want to upgrade the roster that way.
David Coleman - October 12, 2009
i would have rather
traded towles, with paulino for kazmir
EveryHoustonTeamRox! - October 12, 2009
Hardy - Wandy???
You aren’t really suggesting that we would want to deal Wandy for J.J. Hardy, are you?
A burgeoning #1 starter with a 3.02 ERA and 193Ks for a ham-handed SS who has never shown good plate discipline and hit .229/.302/.357 last year? Don’t understand how anyone could find that deal “appealing” in any regard, unless your name is Tim Purpura.
astrosfan55 - October 12, 2009
Hold on there, hoss. All I meant was that to do a bigger deal with the likes of Gamel and Hardy, the Astros would have to give up something significant. Wandy is old for an emerging top-flight starter, and if the Astros could get value for him before he heads to arbitration and FA, they’d flip him in a big deal. He and Pence are the two most tradable chips on a roster that needs work.
David Coleman - October 12, 2009
Wandy is a FA after next year right?
Hardy has 2 years left. I don’t think you’ll find anyone who agrees with your description of him, but if that is what he was, then yeah, nobody would want him. He’d just stay in AAA then and be the emergency backup SS for the brewers.
ol Pete - October 12, 2009
Obviously any deal sending Wandy to the Brewers would have to include more than just Hardy, but I also think your description of him is unfair. His career BB% is 8.3%, and his career K% is 15.8%. Yes, he’s coming off a bad year offensively, but it’s worth noting that his BABIP was a measly .264, suggesting that he had some bad luck at the plate. He’s also a great defender by the way. 10.2 UZR/150 for his career with no signs of slowing down.
That said, yeah, there’s no way a straight Hardy for Wandy trade would be good enough. Maybe if they threw in McGehee, but then again, maybe that would shift things too much the other way. Maybe a two-for-two deal if we threw in somebody like Wesley Wright with starter potential?
OremLK - October 12, 2009
And no, I don’t think Wandy is an FA next year… I think he is just eligible for arb.
OremLK - October 12, 2009
Here is what Cot's says - not sure how to decipher but maybe you're right
Wandy Rodriguez lhp
1 year/$2.6M (2009)
1 year/$2.6M (2009)
re-signed by Houston 1/26/09 (avoided arbitration, $3M-$2.25M)
1 year/$0.451M (2008)
re-signed by Houston 2/28/08
1 year/$0.406M (2007), re-signed 2/07
1 year/$0.327M (2006), renewed 3/06
1 year/$0.316M (2005), re-signed 3/05 (split contract)
ML service: 3.105
ol Pete - October 12, 2009
Checking B-R maybe you're wrong
Next year will be his 6th year, unless there is something I’m missing. So its 2 years of Hardy for one of Wandy. Regardless it probably has almost no chance of happening.
ol Pete - October 12, 2009
trades
i do not trade ace pitchers….they are rare…… oswalt…wandy….norris….a good start…for the rotation….reallly 3 aces… bullpen is good…resign valverde and 3 or 4 of the others who did well…. trade…matsui…a .250 hitter can u put lipstickon a pig?…lee is way overpaid…a clown…does he think losing 88 games is funny..i would ask him for 6 teams he will agree to a trade with and see if i can move him and his big salary.??… there are some hot dog AAA players available…do research..fill your need… towles me be ok…he needs a better tryout…to see if he adapts… we need a 5 tool leftfielder and a good 3b…i think tejada would be good at 3rd…he is a good hitter and prob has another good yr in his tank…but he has no speed…and little power…hits a lot of doubles…so i would offer him 2mil 3mil or maybe 4…..it is what he is worth….let him test free agency…he has tons of baggage…a proven liar…roid boy…etc…old…. a lot of pitchers are on market.. marquis…zito…harang….if astros get rid of tejadas salary..or most of it…and get lucky and get rid of lee’s….they could go shopping for a 4th solid pitcher…remember astros needed to win 16 more games…only…. and remember all the snafus with pitching in early season…with ortiz…hampton… and that guy who tried to strangle the mgr…and sampson and geary..overworked and then blew some games.. magnus
Mike HJALM - October 14, 2009
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