*The part of Devil's Advocate will be played by Davo.
Is it really that bad that the Astros lost out on Manny Acta?
We've gone over his resume a ton, but let's talk about this one little thing: .385.
That's his winning percentage as a major league manager. No Cleveland manager has ever been hired with a career winning percentage that low, according to Chris Jaffe over at THT. The Indians have only been around since, oh, 1901 or so. The Astros have been around since '62, but still managed to hire someone with a worse record than Acta. That would be Preston Gomez in 1971. Gomez was coming off a disastrous four-year stretch as the skipper of the San Diego Padres.
But, wait, you say...Acta was sabotaged by a terrible Nationals team! He wasn't given a chance to win and did what he could with a bad product. I submit to you this man. Pena not only took a bad Royals team over .500 for the first time since 1994, he did it with Jose Lima playing a prominent role. Jose "Casa Ole" Lima! That the team lost 100 games the next season or that Pena hasn't gotten a whiff of another job opportunity since shows something, right?
Okay, so you still think losing Acta was a big real, right? Because Acta is this informed individual who uses advanced stats and doesn't like small ball. Let me posit another hypothesis: what if the only reason you like Acta's managerial style so much is because he's allowed you to see it? Look at the interviews he's done, how candid he's been with his quotes and how much information is out there on his process. Doesn't that strike you as odd? It's almost like he's running a campaign....go look on Google right now for Brad Mills. Do it, I'll wait...
What did you find? Not a whole lot. The guy's been managing forever in the minors, has been a bench coach on one of the best, smartest run teams of this decade and we have no quotes about his style? No interviews detailing his usage of splits or UZR numbers? What if Acta is just a better self-promoter? What if our whole perception of him is exactly what he intends us to see and is figment of our collective imaginations?
Now you've gone too far, you say. I probably did, yes. But it still strikes me as odd that Acta is as open as he's been about everything. Didn't he have a blog too at some point this season? Was I dreaming that? It should be considered is all. Do we want our local skipper to have a better relationship with Justice than with Drayton?
So what about Garner then? He's reliable, he's been tested. In fact, he's the only manager to ever get the Astros to the World Series. That's got to count for something, right? Except that he was fired once by this same team. The same team that featured Roy Oswalt, Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman. Those guys are the tone-setters and they know Garner. I'd argue that this is a bad thing, but is it? The real problem is that Garner didn't distinguish himself as a tactician back then, making an impact more with his calming influence on the club. This current team needs more than an emotional impact, though. They need new thinking.
Don't feel too bad for Ed, Tal and Drayton. So they have to go to their second choice. It's not that bad. Corporations do it all the time. You think ESPN doesn't turn down their top choice for editorial gigs if they ask for more money? The guy just behind you on the pile can do the job about as well as you for the pay we're offering. How is that a bad decision? Plus, will Mills or Garner really be 'managing for their job' if they get just a two-year deal? Shouldn't they always be managing that way? Winning is what we want, it's what the players want, it's what Drayton wants. Why should his employee not want that same thing right away? Certainly, I'm not advocating firing someone before those two years are up, but there should be some urgency there, regardless if they have a contract or not.
Sure, Acta would have been a nice hire, but him going to Cleveland isn't the worst thing in the world. I have thought all kinds of unkind things about Drayton and the front office's lack of commitment to winning. Lately, it's the draft and international free agent spending that gets me the most. Still, I just don't see this as the case with Acta. Sure, everyone liked him, but obviously Drayton didn't like him enough. I'm sure Wade loved C.C. last offseason too, but you didn't see McLane backing up the wheelbarrow for Sabathia. Find me two starting pitchers and a good hitter for the left side of the infield and this offseason will be considered a success.
0 recs | 5 comments
I admit it: I liked Acta because the information presented about him conformed with my knowledge of the “right” way to manage a baseball team. I am guilty of using empirical evidence to inform my preferences, rather than making random-ass guesses.
Only_A_Lad - October 26, 2009
If we’re going to use Acta’s win/loss % against him we need to take into account Phil Garners win/loss % .483 and that’s with 4 years of coaching the Astros to a .524 % in his time. That’s 15 years of below .500 baseball.
Like it’s been stated I like Garner with a veteran club, the 2010 Astros are not going to be a veteran club unless they decide to go above the prescribed 90 million dollar mark.
Brad Mills is not a google search because 2 other organizations are not trying to get him in for interviews.
Not getting Acta is not the end of the world, but this trend of not wanting to go that extra mile is frustrating. Maybe that’s why Andy Pettite wanted to go back to New York. Nolan Ryan he can’t play anymore let him go to the Rangers, he is wearing a Rangers hat in the hall of fame. Randy Johnson, Carlos Beltran, Darryl Kile, and I’m sure others can be named. The Astros have a history of balking when they have the opportunity to go just that little extra, and that is very frustrating considering the time many of us invest in the team.
Timothy De Block - October 26, 2009
1. I wouldn’t be as upset about this decision if I didn’t think that it automatically leads the Astros to pick Garner as the next manager. (Who knows if MIlls or anybody else will accept a two year deal?) Garner is fine for certain situations. But I have a dread about what could happen on a second Garner go around now. I think it could be a set back for the organization, or at least the failure to take an opportunity to change the direction of the team.
2. I’m not a believer in using W/L record to judge a manager any more than I would use W/L record to determine whether starting pitchers performed well or not. If that’s the case, you would have to pick one of the candidates who hasn’t managed, because I don’t think any candidate who was a previous manager had a winning record. Phil Garner’s record is 69 games below .500. Also you would have to conclude that Cecil Cooper is better than any of the candidates because he has a winning record.
3. If the owner and front office believe that the next manager should be managing for his job in his first year, then that is a significant problem in itself. It means that they are out of touch with reality—-unless McLane intends to increase his self imposed payroll budget ceiling. Instead the team should be developing a multi year plan for constructing the team, rather than expecting a winning team next year. That’s not to say that winning is impossible. As Larry Dierker said, a manager with low expectations, because he is given a young team, can sometimes produce a surprise. The evaluation of the next manager in the first couple of years probably should be based on metrics other than W/L.
clack - October 26, 2009
so
“Find me two starting pitchers and a good hitter for the left side of the infield and this offseason will be considered a success.”
so basically we’re screwed?
robolundgren - October 26, 2009
Mills
I think that he could do a good job as manager in Houston. Your comment about being part of the best run organization is valid and it should rub off. That sort of thing often does.
In the end, I think the Astros are going to have to put a huge focus on scouting and player development the next 5 years or so to rebuild. From has been written about them in various baseball related sites, they are bogged down by awful contracts being paid to aging players. Not a very good recipe for adding quality and improving the team.
I think the stros are on a good path right now. Winning may not come in bunches for a few years, but the farm system is starting to build a lot of good talent with guys like Norris, Lyles, Castro and now the new draft picks of Mier and Wickoff will help to turn the corner in the coming years.
The style or type of manager a team has has some influence, but not as great as you might think. It all boils down to organizational philosophy and the talent level on the field.
backtocali - October 26, 2009
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