It's looking like the first part of my theory on the Astros bullpen plans are coming to fruition. Jose Valverde can't find a deal, so his best option is accepting arbitration with the Astros. That probably means his salary will fall somewhere around 9 million. Ken Rosenthal is reporting the possible salary number at 10 million, but from looking at the market, that seems high to me. At the same time, Valverde's salary was 8 million last season, so you can guess where it will end up through this negotiation.
Two points to remember: First, Valverde has until midnight Monday to decide whether to accept arbitration. Certainly, his agent has an idea how the market will shape up to this point. The fact that both Billy Wagner AND Takashi Saito both signed before rumors of Valverde have hit the market. Second, even if Valverde accepts arbitration, it doesn't mean he's locked into an arbiter deciding his 2010 salary. Check out AstroAndy's excellent rundown of the process for a refresher.
I say the first part of my theory looks sound but the second part, bringing Hawkins back, looks less likely. Maybe the Astros could have struck quickly and signed Hawkins to a modest deal a couple of weeks ago. Now, the market seems to be heating up for the soon-to-be 37-year old with the Rockies being the latest team to express interest.
Honestly, I'm less afraid of Valverde returning on a one-year deal than of the Astros working out a multi-year deal for him. Sure, it's probably not the best use of resources to lock up a closer for big money with a limited budget. But, what else were they going to spend money on? Ed Wade has made it clear he's not spending on a starter, that third base is pretty set and that he's happy entering the season with Towles, Q and possibly Castro in the catching mix. Bringing back Valverde will not only give the Astros a more solid bullpen, they won't be able to get a player of his talent on a contract that short. This is better news than it seems.
On to more of the weekend's best links:
- This news is either depressing or somewhat hopeful, depending on how you look at it. Mier appears to be one of the steals of the 2009 draft. Lyles and Castro are both ahead of schedule. No winning records since 2007, though? Is it really important for minor league affiliates to win games? If the system can churn out one to two prospects a season, isn't that what matters most?
- My analytical toolbox has been duly updated. Thanks, Dave Cameron.
- Recent injuries have sidelined both Wesley Wright and Brian Bogusevic. Both might have an impact on the 25-man roster next season, so maybe it's time to shut them down until February.
- Here's Brian McTaggart's take on the Winter Meetings. Not surprising that the Astros won't be movers and shakers. Richard Justice thinks the Astros woes lately are all because of Baylor. Personally, I'd blame that replay official up in Dallas. That game was clearly over. He owes us a TCU-Alabama national championship.
- Worried about Roy Oswalt? Apparently, we shouldn't be. His best buddy, JJO, says he's rested and ready to go. He also is happy with his new pitching coach.
- It's a bit of a stretch to think Bryce Harper may fall to No. 8, but man, can this kid play? This is one of the coolest videos I've seen in a while. As athletic as he sounds, maybe he switches to third base? A man can dream, can't he?
- More distressing news from the NCAA about the draft process. I know there are some who would like to see an international draft, but honestly, do we need to give more power to organizations like this? After the NCAA settled with Andy Oliver, it seemed clear its intent was to move back to the status quo and that's exactly what they are doing.
- A very illuminating profile on Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. All those GMs saying he's the third- or fourth-best pitcher on the free agent market? They probably thought Kyle Farnsworth was also one of the best. I don't know what it is about a lefty with a fastball that makes scouts lose their minds. Doesn't his utter lack of control worry them just as much?
- Boy, this Rangers sale is going to be fun to watch. Plus, there is the added intrigue on whether Nolan is sticking around with the team. Obviously, this worries me more than anything else about that debacle, since I like the idea of Round Rock being the Triple-A affiliate. If they leave, would the Astros bring back the Beaumont Golden Gators?
I agree that it isn’t the worst thing in the world if Valverde accepts arbitration. I would prefer that he go to free agency, because it will uncomplicate matters for the Astros. But a 1 year contract with Valverde will at least fill an obvious hole and he is tradeable in the future, if necessary. The SI report, which mentions the possibility of Valverde signing a contract with the Astros later if he doesn’t accept arbitration, is probably the better of the two outcomes, because it will probably be cheaper.
clack - December 7, 2009
GOD i hope they bring back the golden gators
guess where i live :p
robolundgren - December 7, 2009
Wesley Wright did not put up encouraging numbers
Wesley Wright’s winter ball numbers are discouraging. I had hoped for better. His hits and walks numbers seem worse than his regular season numbers ( I’m working on memory here) (nice strikeout rate though). Per McTaggart :
“Wright was 0-2 with a 3.58 ERA in seven starts for Este. In 32 2/3 innings, he’d allowed 27 hits, 16 runs (13 earned), 20 walks and struck out 38.”
Joe in Birmingham - December 7, 2009
Interesting FanGraphs article on Kelly Johnson
Link
The long and short of it is, they’re equating him with Mark DeRosa, except a younger version, and projecting him to hit for somewhere around .800 OPS. His defense isn’t very good, and I don’t know whether he could play third base; the 2009 Fan Scouting Report says this about him:
-Reaction/Instincts: 2.7
-Accel./First Few Steps: 3.1
-Velocity/Sprint Speed: 3.5
-Hands/Catching: 2.4
-Release/Footwork: 2.9
-Throwing Strength: 3.3
-Throwing Accuracy: 3.5
Which sounds like his arm strength might be enough to handle the position; hard to say for certain. Regardless, his bat sounds like it would play well in our beleaguered infield.
A good trade candidate or bargain pickup if he’s non-tendered?
OremLK - December 7, 2009
I would be shocked if Kelly Johnson is non-tendered....
I knew he had slumped a bit last year (though until I looked it up, I didn’t know his OPS slumped below .700). But only a year or so ago, he was talked about as a “core player” on the Braves. It’s no surprise that Johnson isn’t the best defensive 2d baseman around, because he is really an outfielder playing the infield. His offensive ability is weak as a left fielder, but it is exceptional for a 2d baseman. His offense wouldn’t be so special for a 3d baseman. (I notice that he hasn’t played 3d base in the majors; I don’t if he has in the minors or not.) If he were to come at a bargain in some form or fashion to the Astros… yes he would be better than what the Astros have at 3d base (assuming he can play the position).
clack - December 7, 2009
He did play some third base in the minors, or so I’ve read.
OremLK - December 7, 2009
:p
Perhaps they need to add “Observational Skills 101” to the course curriculum at A&M.
Though, with my experience as a Houston sports fan, I was fully expecting that to be the end of the game. It would have just been so typical.
Only_A_Lad - December 7, 2009
Eh, that was more to appease the wife. She’s from Nebraska and is a HUGE Huskers fan. I thought it was the right call; she disagreed…
David Coleman - December 7, 2009
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