[UPDATE] I think Zach Levine has it best at trying to find a silver lining:
At the end of the day (quite literally at 11:30PM) this feels like a classic Ed Wade move, but just not one that seems like it'll really ever come back to bite us too hard. Will he catch a lot of flack for it yes. Could it prove to be a decent enough signing in hindsight? It could. He's proved the pundits (myself included) wrong many times.
It's been a long day, with a lot to digest. Maybe tomorrow I finally have gained my bearings on today's transactions. Can you get a hot stove hangover?
[UPDATE] Rosenthal has the deal at $15 million over three years. The section I've added at the end about cost-effective now has to be amended. I don't know why Ed Wade overpaid for Lyon's services. He could have just gone an extra year on LaTroy Hawkins and come out top. Mike Gonzalez is still on the market and would have been a better fit (I'm just bitter the Gonzalez deal didn't come to fruition in the end, I guess). Yes, Lyon is only thirty, but it's not like he's got a closer's repertoire.
But, because there always is one, it's not like Lyon will kill us at this price, so I think my points below still kind of apply (just lessen my adulation of Wade and sort of turn my overall feeling back to relative indifference).
[UPDATE] Apparently FOX 26 is way ahead of the curve on this one. They have it as a three year deal. This deal is edging closer to getting a big thumbs down.
This one has come kind out of left field. There was literally no news of this until FOX 26 popped up in my RSS feed (those things are like the dinosaurs now). There's no news yet on the amount or years, but it has been confirmed that we have reached an agreement with Brandon Lyon. The deal is, of course, pending a physical.
Lyon is actually rated as highly as Jose Valverde is by CHONE. Not that means too terribly much. Lyon posted a 4.06FIP/4.24xFIP in 2009. He is pegged by Bill James to post a 3.88 FIP in 2010. Last year he struggled with his control (1.84 K:BB) after having a career year in that department in 2008 (3.38 K:BB); but Bill James has him as posting a 2.11 K:BB and CHONE foresees a 2.23 K:BB; he also has a career GB% of 42.5%. He's not exactly your protypical closer, but he definitely fits the mold of what Wade was looking for: someone who closed out baseball games before.
At the very least, this deal gives us competition for who takes the ball in the ninth inning during spring training, and gives us a plethora of fringe closer-candidates to eventually develop into a strong enough back end of the rotation.
Costs will be the key for this deal, but I imagine Lyon couldn't have raked in too much. More to come when the amounts and years are released.
********
I still don't know the dollar amounts on this, but if it's cost effective, I have to give Wade credit for today. The Matt Lindstrom trade didn't really force the Astros to give up anything that they couldn't live without, and I have to imagine that Lyon, even at three years, will provide reasonably costs service during that period of time. So that's two relievers for three years, all at a reasonable price. Even when Arias, Sampson, and Fulchino start qualifying for arbitration, the bullpen will not be the expense that hamstrings us.
In all, I think I have to say I'm pleased with the gambit of Wade's. He's positioning us nicely for the clubs—hopeful—turnover in 2012-2013. There seems to be some real foresight into today's moves. Nothing flashy, but definitely serviceable. We'll be a bullpen of Honda Civics, but that's not a bad thing to be in our current state as franchise.
0 recs | 56 comments
You only lose picks on Type A’s.
Vesper - December 9, 2009
Crap
You’re right.
Stephen Higdon - December 9, 2009
Arrgghh
I hope this is wrong. Rosenthal says one source told him Lyon was offered $15 million over three years.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10496890
If that’s true it entirely erases any good will I had for Wade for the Lindstrom deal.
OremLK - December 9, 2009
Too much.
I hope he is wrong, but probably isn’t. The BrewCrewBall posters were upset with the Hawkins salary, believing that Melvin mistakenly fell for an ERA two runs lower than his FIP. I could say the same thing here. If Wade pays him $5 million/year, he probably relied upon a 2.86 ERA which is 1+ run lower than his FIP.
clack - December 9, 2009
It boggles my mind
For $15MM/3 you might be able to pick up an Adam Kennedy, Pedro Feliz, Joe Crede, etc. Why blow it on middle relief?
OremLK - December 9, 2009
I’ve never been wild about Lyon as a closer. But I recall reading that the Yankees were interested in him, with their usual desire to stock up on closer-like relievers to use in middle relief. Bill James doesn’t see a huge differential between Hawkins and Lyon..3.29 ERA for Hawkins and 3.88 ERA for Lyon. 3 years seems long, but maybe Wade was determined not to get burned again by falling short on the term.
clack - December 9, 2009
Lyon doesn’t even look like a closer type to me. 5.80 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 42.5% GB percentage for his career as a relief pitcher? That’s pure middle relief. Useful, but not a guy I’d want to rely on in high leverage situations. And certainly not worth $5MM per year for three years!
OremLK - December 9, 2009
His claim to closer-dom is 26 saves after Valverde left Arizona. He strikes me as kind of like a Wayne Franklin type closer. Not really dominant.
clack - December 9, 2009
I watched a lot of Dbacks that year
He couldn’t handle the pressure. They had big expectations of him and he couldn’t deliver. If I remember correctly he did very well in non-save situations. I will look that up
-He does have a cool looking curveball
baggs - December 9, 2009
Silver lining
we didn’t get burned by a bad trade going after Soriano.
Also, now we have a pretty stacked bullpen. Although, it will be funny to see either Arias, Gervacio or Lo closing by August
-So much for that extra cash to go after a SP or some offense.
baggs - December 9, 2009
in 08, he was great the 1st half, awful the second.
He was also great on the road, terrible at home.
baggs - December 9, 2009
I hate to say it, but this is the typical Wade “reliever love” which earned him such ridicule while he was in Philly. He was known to pay too much money for solid, but unspectacular, journeyman relievers.
clack - December 9, 2009
True
But it’s not like this is breaking the bank going after this. At the very least it gives us the depth to whether the season with above average relievers.
Stephen Higdon - December 9, 2009
It’ll be interesting to see what arnsberg will be able to do with him.
Vesper - December 9, 2009
Ken Rosenthal is saying it definitively now over Twitter
Link
Pardon my French, but…. SHIT.
OremLK - December 9, 2009
This is Kaz Matsui part two. A mediocre player coming of the mirage of a good season getting overpaid. At least we’ll still have a player to gripe about in 2012.
OremLK - December 9, 2009
in an attempt to put a positive spin on it...
Paying $6 M for two productive relievers may be more effective than paying $8 M for one very good reliever (Valverde).
clack - December 9, 2009
Good point.
hunterpencefan - December 9, 2009
I was thinking the exact same thing
Timothy De Block - December 10, 2009
For a more pleasant thought...
This article at fangraphs is fairly positive on the Lindstrom trade.
clack - December 9, 2009
Bullpen
Lindstrom
Lyon
Arias
Fulchino
Arias
Sampson
Byrdak
We should have spent that money on a starter and grabbed a long reliever. We have 5 7-8 inning guys. lol
baggs - December 9, 2009
oops. miss typed there
should be gervacio instead of one arias
baggs - December 9, 2009
Add Wesley Wright
in case he’s not a starter
Joe in Birmingham - December 9, 2009
Wright will probably spend a good amount of time at RR if he doesn’t make the team in spring to give him time to adjust to being a starter. the competition in AAA is better than the winter leagues.
Subber10 - December 10, 2009
He did not do well in Carribean
Joe in Birmingham - December 10, 2009
He did very well in his first couple of starts before a few bad and then his injury. The talent is there and they will probably continue to try it out for a season. So he’ll likely get some seasoning as a starter in AAA
Subber10 - December 10, 2009
It'll be interesting to see if we can contend next year.
Wade’s bullpen will be interesting to see in action.
hunterpencefan - December 9, 2009
Apparently the third year might be an option
Which makes this slightly more palatable.
Stephen Higdon - December 9, 2009
thats like saying
its only a second degree burn, not a third
robolundgren - December 9, 2009
could be worse
Could be Gregg
baggs - December 9, 2009
Ha!
jmike - December 9, 2009
I’m in general pro- Ed Wade, but this move makes little sense. I don’t see why Hawkins doesn’t deserve two years but Lyon deserves three, especially when Lyon got more money than Hawkins could have possibly wanted.
This stuff about the Astros not having enough money for starters is a bunch of crap. Take Hampton’s two million from last year. Take Moehler’s two or so million. Take Lyon’s 5 million. That’s 9 million dollars (for one year) we could commit to a solid starter. We’re better off biting the bullet and standing put for one or two offseasons if it means saving up for a quality player or two in the future, as opposed to signing these “best of the bargain bin” types and continually putting up 78-82 win seasons.
As mentioned before, though, the bright side of this is that it could have been much worse. We could have signed Gregg to this type of contract, or we could have given up quality assets for Soriano and then paid him much more than he is worth.
He’s an Astro now and as such I want Lyon to perform well. I hope he proves me wrong. As it stands now, though, I don’t like this signing in the least.
roswalt44 - December 9, 2009
I think the difference is age
Lyon is 30 and Hawk s 37
baggs - December 9, 2009
Why not Putz????
hunterpencefan - December 9, 2009
Actually
I would prefer Lyon to Putz. Putz had one great year, but he is coming off gnarly arm surgeries and I would rather have a guy who I can count on to play the entire year.
Lyon has played in at least 60 games the last 4 years.
Putz hasn’t done that in the last 2.
baggs - December 9, 2009
Also, wasn’t Brandon Lyon once traded for Curt Schilling? There’s an Astro connection!
jmike - December 9, 2009
Because Putz is likely to go to the White Sox. Contrary to popular belief, Gm’s don’t have total control over where a player goes. He actually gets to choose where he wants to go. As such, Ed Wade could have made Putz his number one priority, but if he didn’t want to come here there is nothing Wade could do.
Yes, I understand the Astros can’t afford to have every single reliever be really young. That’s why you sign veterans to short term deals. Sign Lyon to 1-2 years. If he won’t take that then move on to a Will Ohman, Joe Biemel, J.J. Putz, or Chad Bradford and sign one of them to a contract. Then you address the current issue. Justifying Lyon being on the team in 2011 and especially 2012 because in 2010 our bullpen is young makes no sense. Would you be for the Astros signing Bengie Molina or any other catcher to a three year deal for multiple millions because Towles and Castro are currently young and inexperienced?
roswalt44 - December 9, 2009
Are Astros better off?
I know very little about any of the recently named payers.
All things considered, Which is the preferred combination?:
A. Jose Valverde (Astros could have retained him if they tried IMO) + Robert Bono +Luis Bryan + Rule V pick
B. Brandon Lyon + Matt Lindstrom
Joe in Birmingham - December 10, 2009
Don't forget the + 2 draft picks
and I think that’s what makes me want B and pray to God that Lindstrom develops into a dominate or adequate closer. That was probably one of the only ways we could make a trade this year is by knowing that we’re getting a couple draft picks more anyways.
Astrosws20 - December 10, 2009
I meant to include the 2 draft picks
but in my haste I left them off.
I had been thinking that even though Bono and Bryan were not first round draft picks, they survived their time in pro ball and putp some good nu8mebrs. That movs them up the list of potentialmajor leaguers . While first rounders have great potential they bring risks too.
Joe in Birmingham - December 10, 2009
Bono and Bryan weren’t even in the Astros’ “top 30” prospects, according to BP (or BA, I can’t remember), and given that the Astros’ farm system is so lowly ranked, that is quite low.
clack - December 10, 2009
I said earlier this off-season that 2 good relief pitchers at substantially lower cost is more valuable than 1 great relief pitcher (Valverde). My point was that you get more high leverage (8th and 9th) innings covered and at a lower cost. At the time, I was envisioning something like Hawkins plus Sherrill. In theory, Lindstrom plus Lyon has the same effect. However, Lyon is probably more near “average” than “good.” Lindstrom is higher risk, but has good upside.
clack - December 10, 2009
Hawkins and Sherill would of also cost a lot more.
Timothy De Block - December 10, 2009
Well, Sherrill would require a higher trading cost than Lindstrom. The Dodgers’ picked up Sherrill’s option, and he would require a trade. The total salary cost of Hawkins-Sherrill wouldn’t have been very much higher than Lindstrom-Lyon though.
clack - December 10, 2009
I wouldn't put Lyon in a high leverage situation
OremLK - December 10, 2009
He has been a set up man for most of his career. I don’t mind putting him in the 8th inning. He is seems like a Wheeler-esque type player to me.
clack - December 10, 2009
Sorry, I should have elaborated.
I wouldn’t put Lyon in a high leverage situation over Fulchino, Arias, maybe even Gervacio or Sampson.
OremLK - December 10, 2009
I guess Drayton won't give Wade money to get a good starter
so Wade’s trying to bolster the pen as much has he can, given they’ll be overused and abused once again this year. Sigh…
goingforthecorner - December 10, 2009
I have totally rescinded in positive spin I could put on Lyon in a new post above this one
I feel sick.
Stephen Higdon - December 10, 2009
any positive spin*
Stephen Higdon - December 10, 2009
The 04-05 Cubs bullpen back-end
Lindstrom=LaTroy Hawkins
Lyon=Joe Borowski.
Fun fun.
Horrible deal.
jonthefon - December 10, 2009
Fangraphs: Lyon "Worst Signing of the Winter"
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-worst-signing-of-the-winter/
Joe in Birmingham - December 10, 2009
As I said in DQ’s later article, Cameron’s analysis of value is bad analysis. You can’t analyze relief pitcher win value without taking leverage into account. In addition, the projections of Lyon’s performance by ZIPS, Bill James, and CHONE are all significantly better than what Cameron assumes.
clack - December 10, 2009
To add on to your points about leverage, here are the 2009 WPA/LI stats for some relievers:
Valverde: 0.53 WPA/LI
Hawkins: 0.27 WPA/LI
Lyon: 1.57 WPA/LI
AstroAndy - December 10, 2009
Your point about valuation using leverage for relievers is valid..
..but is generally only applicable in a backwards looking sense. In other words, there is little correlation between outperformance in high leverage situations from one year to the next.
On a going forward basis, it is prudent to assume that Lyon will perform the same in high and low leverage situations, unless you think he has some ability to be clurtch. This is why it is ok for Cameron to disregard leverage – it is largely useless for projection as it is too dependent on usage and luck.
all4tookie - December 10, 2009
No, that really isn’t the issue. Cameron is attempting to estimate how much Lyon should be paid. The salary has to take into account the leverage situations that the team intends to use the relief pitcher. The leverage is integral to the relief pitcher’s value, whether actual or expected. Simply put, the market pays more for relief pitchers who have demonstrated that they can perform well in leveraged situations—that’s why relief pitchers with closer experience and set up experience are able to demand higher salaries. If you leave out any consideration of leverage, in most cases the analysis will come to the conclusion that the market “overpaid” for closers or late inning relievers. The leverage is dependent on: the team deciding to put pitchers in high leverage situations, and the pitcher’s ability to perform well in those situations. If you are going to project a player’s value for salary purposes, leverage information is certainly not useless since it is the best predictor of the pitcher’s future usage.
ln addition, Cameron incorrectly comes to the conclusion that Lyon is almost a replacement level pitcher based on using one year FIP. The projection systems (CHONE, James, ZIPS), however, forecast Lyons as a well above average relief pitcher. ZIPS projects a 122 ERA+ for Lyon in 2010, and 118 in 2011 and 2012. That is a long way away from the 1/2 win or so WAR used by Cameron.
clack - December 10, 2009
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of The Crawfish Boxes to post a comment.