This is it people. The last week without baseball. If we're this excited imagine how the Astros feel. Especially someone like Chris Sampson, who missed a great deal of playing time last year due to a sore throwing elbow. After having surgery to repair a torn tendon, he is finally pain free for the first time since 2006. Which is perfect, considering how the bullpen will be relied on just as much in 2009 as it was in 2008.
Sampson represents the one true "innings eater" of the pen that the Astros have at their disposal. Perhaps if Alberto Arias makes the club, he can fill a similar role, but as it stands today, his right arm will be important in keeping games close.
While there are bigger names in our bullpen, Sampson was our best arm in terms of Pitching Runs Above Average (pRAA). A lot of the time, its difficult to ascertain who is pitching well in relief, and who is taking advantage of lucky situations and park effects. The middle innings reliever often gets the short of end of the stick in terms of luck, and pRAA neutralizes situational pitching, park effects, and expected outs. Doing so allows us to get a more objective view of a particular pitcher, regardless of their role on the pitching staff. What we can see is that Sampson has flown under the radar. He pitches in some of the most difficult situations conceivable, and does the kind of work that allowed this team to succeed despite their run scored/runs allowed differential.
If he can continue to rehabilitate his elbow, and everything stays on schedule, Sampson should be in line for another solid, if unspectacular season. Bill James expects fewer innings this season due to fewer starts. One difference we could possibly see this year as compared to recent seasons, is an increased number of sliders thrown. With his elbow issues in 2007 and 2008, Chris relied more heavily on his cutter and his curveball. In 2006, his last healthy season, his slider was thrown nearly 15% of the time. Last season it amounted to only 6.1% of his total pitches thrown. His ability to keep hitters off balance as a relief pitcher is a skill that is very valuable, and one that the Astros will take advantage of quite a bit this season.
0 recs | 3 comments
I am concerned about how well he comes back from surgery.
But, if he can keep the groundballs coming, he should be alright. He has the best groundball rate on the team.. (If Arias makes the team….and if Hampton is right, they could challenge Sampson on the GB rate.)
Another under appreciated area of Sampson’s ability is his defense. Pitcher defense is more important than people think (just look at Greg Maddux) and this is particularly true if the pitchers aren’t strike out artists. Sampson, a former shortstop, has the potential to be one of the best fielding pitchers in baseball. Backe, a former 2d baseman / OFer, is also a good fielder. Hampton was always well regarded as a fielding pitcher. Wandy is a good fielder too. So the Astros have quite a few good fielding pitchers.
clack - February 6, 2009
I concur on the worry about the recovery
But I think HLP makes a good point, that if recovered, Sampson could be even more effective than he previously was. If he really can mix his pitches more effectively, 2010 could even see him with the arm strength enough to try his hand at starting again?
Stephen Higdon - February 6, 2009
surgery for a torn elbow tendon...
that is the same thing Ben Sheets faces. Others with the same kind of surgery: Andy Pettitte (04); Billy Wagner (2000); Jason Jennings (2007). I’m sure that recovery has a lot to do with how severe the tear turned out to be, once surgery began. Wagner and Pettitte were impressive in making fast recoveries from the surgery and coming back better than ever. Jennings didn’t do so well; supposedly the first surgery “didn’t take.” It’s good to hear Sampson say he is throwing without pain for the first time in a long time. Maybe he can be like Pettitte and Wagner.
clack - February 6, 2009
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