The Astros have had a poor first week in the season. Understandably, Astros' fans here and elsewhere are upset, even despondent. This is just a reminder...it's still very early. A 1-5 string in mid-season wouldn't be suprising for any team. But it gets enlarged out of proportion, in the minds of fans, when it begins the season.
One might rightfully be concerned about potential issues surrounding the Astros' offense---but concern for those issues (like plate discipline and lack of OBP) are largely unaffected by the season so far. By that, I mean, the concern is based on the players' offensive history, and remains the same as we could foresee before the season began.
So far the source of the Astros' poor offensive results has been the inability to drive in runners on base. But this, itself, demonstrates the problem with drawing conclusions about the future from a small sample. The Astros are hitting .357 with bases empty, 4th best in the majors. The Astros are hitting .188 with runners in scoring position, 4th worst in the majors, and ..167 for RISP-2 outs, 6th worst in the majors. This kind of differential is unsustainable over the long term. No matter whether one thinks clutch hitting exists as a skill or not, the differentials in these situations tend to be on the order of 20 to 30 points. (In 2008, the Astros hit .291 with bases empty and .262 with RISP.) The Astros haven't been very lucky in their distibution of runs.so far in this early season. The fact that the middle of the order hasn't produced in RBI situations underscores the small sample size, since Berkman, Lee, and Tejada are proven run producers.
If you want something to be optimistic about...may I suggest the Astros defense. Obviously, this is all subject to the same "small sample / it's early" caveat. Coming in to opening day, we knew that some key players needed to produce good defense this season for the Astros to succeed. Despite a few errors, overall the defense looks good. Kaz Matsui had a poor defensive year in 08, which was unexpected , given his great defensive season for the Rockies in 07. I suspected that his movement back and forth to the DL had something to do with that. So far, Matsui's defense has been outstanding. Matsui's fielding was the highlight of Sunday's game. We wondered whether Tejada could maintain his good defensive performance of last year. So far, he looks fine, showing both range and a strong arm. Blum has continued his good defensive performance at 3d base. We haven't seen Keppinger at 3d base enough to draw conclusions, but he looked good on the few chances he was given. So, maybe there is a glimmer of light.
So, it's not time to get upset....yet.
0 recs | 5 comments
My concerns
What concerns me is that the Astros are performing just as the so-called experts predicted they would , whereas I expected a stronger start, especially stronger pitching.
I worry because half the games are “Negative Outlier Games” (games where the opposition score 9 or more runs or the Astros are shut out (I may add one-run games to this group but let’s leave it at shutouts now)) and no Positive Outlier Games.
I could have accepted a 2-4 record against the Cubs and Cardinals going into this week; but the Astros were not truly dismal in at least three games.
I’m concerned because Roy O was hammered in both his starts. We can blame his pitching in the WBC and hope he regroups. but I’m still concerned.
Wandy has has two decent outings. Hampton one (expcept for a toss to first that still haunts my dreams). Anybody else?
I’m concerned because the two Jasons (Smith and Michaels) are dead weight so far.
I’m concerned because I’m an Astros fan and it’s my calling in life to be concerned about them.
Joe in Birmingham - April 13, 2009
This is a concept my wife hasn’t seemed to grasp. She just doesn’t understand how I can make time for baseball when I have so many “more important things” to do.
AstroAndy - April 13, 2009
Well
I certainly wouldn’t have guessed that offense would be a problem. Oswalt and Moehler’s starts didn’t help, but COME ON! They didn’t even score a single run yesterday!
I can only hope that the hitting will pick up in Pittsburgh.
On a side note, I almost threw up when I saw Roy throw a pitch right down the middle that Pujols could send to the next galaxy for four runs.
Go Astros. (Redeem yourself Moehler!)
astrofan91 - April 13, 2009
I wish I had time to list all the reasons I’m concerned.
I’m concerned because this looks a lot like the Astros that finished with one of the worst records in spring training.
I’m concerned because I was really hoping that failing to make the playoffs last year would break this notion that we can rely on being a second half team.
I’m concerned because we don’t really seem to have much of a farm system and I really don’t believe Ed Wade is going to fix that.
The list goes on and on, but most of all I’m concerned because we can’t have it both ways:
“The Cleveland Indians reached the Panic Number on Monday.
This is not some nebulous figure. The Panic Number is serious business. It portends doom for those unlucky enough to tumble into it. A sub-.500 record is almost a given. Playoffs? Say it like Jim Mora, because the chances are that slim.
And the thing is, because teams reach the Panic Number roughly a week into the season, there’s a natural inclination to scoff at it, to laugh it off as some kind of reactionary hokum not worth discussing.
So before burying the Indians with more than 95 percent of their season to play, allow us to present a few facts: Over the past 25 full seasons, 45 teams in Major League Baseball have begun their seasons 1-6 or worse. Of those 45, eight have finished the year with a better-than-average record. And of those eight, only one – the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies – made the postseason. In which they were promptly swept…"
Jeff Passan
Dwight72 - April 14, 2009
seven games is not a sufficient sample size to make a conclusion...
about the final season record. There is no reason that the first seven games of the season are any different than any other seven game period in terms of statistical valdiity.
The first Astros’ team to get my rapt attention as a young fan was the 1969 Astros. That was the first Astros team to truly be considered in “contention” for the new NL West division. That team started April with a record of 4-20, and ended the month of April by being no hit in a 10-0 loss. The ’69 Astros rebounded with 10 straight wins in May, and were only 2 games out of 1st place on Sept. 10.
We all know about the only World Series Astros team, the 2005 “tombstone” Astros, which stood at 15-30 on May 24.
clack - April 14, 2009
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