Regardless of what you think of Drew Sutton's potential to be a viable contributor to the Astros, he was clearly the best hitting middle infield prospect the organization had to boast in their minor league system.
Now that we know he is no longer an option, who are the other second base prospects the Astros have to offer?
First, let's take a look at what Drew Sutton has done in his career as a minor leaguer:
| Games Played | ABs | HR | R | AVG | OPS |
| 554 | 2085 | 61 | 359 | .282 | .818 |
Those numbers include his AA season in 2008 where he OPS'ed .931, and was a 20/20 man to boot. He's a switch hitter, and was showing signs of becoming a nice player to have on your club. His projections for this season are extremely respectable for a guy who hadn't yet sniffed AAA.
That's what we gave up. Here's what is left in terms of players who could still legitimately be called prospects:
Edwin Maysonet, 27 (Round Rock)
| Games Played | ABs | HR | R | AVG | OPS |
| 602 | 2062 | 36 | 319 | .257 | .716 |
Craig Corrado, 24 (Lancaster)
| Games Played | ABs | HR | R | AVG | OPS |
| 187 | 747 | 4 | 87 | .268 | .639 |
Felix Molina, 25 (Corpus Christi)
| Games Played | ABs | HR | R | AVG | OPS |
| 707 | 2431 | 31 | 314 | .264 | .700 |
Marcos Cabral, 25 (Lancaster)
| Games Played | ABs | HR | R | AVG | OPS |
| 292 | 1001 | 14 | 137 | .255 | .701 |
Albert Carwright, 22 (Lexington)
| Games Played | ABs | HR | R | AVG | OPS |
| 57 | 170 | 3 | 30 | .282 | .770 |
That about sums it up. If I've missed any players, I apologize. The point I'm trying to make is that beyond Sutton there is really nobody else that looks like an obvious candidate to be a successful major leaguer. Either these guys are too old to be regarded all that highly, or they're too young to say one way or another.
What irked me about this move was this was another example of the Astros sacrificing any potential for a low cost alternative, for an immediate gain. True, the loss of Aaron Boone left a pretty big hole on the infield, and the Astros were desperate. Cincinnati was in a position of strength, in that Jeff Keppinger probably would not have even made the Reds' opening day roster. Still, while the Astros do not have a good farm system, it does not make any sense to trade away from little remaining talent is available.
Think about it in terms of personal banking. Everyone works in order to earn income to dispose of in any way they so choose. Basically, when you receive a paycheck you can either:
All three options have their advantages, all three options have their drawbacks. The more you spend initially, obviously the less you have in reserve in case of emergency. If all you do is deposit your paychecks and spend none of your income, you'll end up living the life of a miser. The third option, spending and saving, seems to be the most prudent choice. Spend wisely, and have enough money in case you need to make a withdrawal.
Baseball teams operate in much the same way, but here players act as income. The off season is when teams earn their "income". The regular season is when teams will spend this income. Each team has a different manner of spending, allocating and evaluating their scare resources
In essence, when injury or poor performance occur, most teams have the luxury to dip into their minor league systems and pluck out a player who can play on the major league level, at least for a short while. At this point, however, it's painfully obvious the Astros can't make that kind of withdrawal- the screen at our ATM would read: Insufficient Funds.
I don't think anyone will debate that the Astros couldn't have gone into this season with just Geoff Blum manning third base. If Chris Johnson had won the job outright from Blum, that would have been a different story. We saw glimpses of what Johnson can do, but we also saw that for the most part he's still extremely green. More time is needed in the minors, and hopefully in 2010 the job will be his. For the time being though, a stop gap was needed, and Jeff Keppinger was the choice. Time will tell if this trade works out in the Astros advantage, but regardless, the philosophy of this organization seems inherently flawed and any chances of future success will be hindered if these flaws aren't corrected.
0 recs | 17 comments
I think our organizational philosophy could be labled as:
Slash and Burn
natrix964909 - April 17, 2009
Analogiizing players to income...
has one flaw. The value of players isn’t universally agreed upon, unlike money. Wade puts much greater weight on scouting evaluation than statistics. (Not saying that’s good…just that is their view.) I think the Astros performed their own evaluation on Sutton’s value, and came up with a different conclusion than some of us did. Maybe they concluded he didn’t have much possibility of usefulness at the ML level, who knows. In any event, they concluded that Keppinger has greater value than Sutton. In that light, the trade from the Astros’ perspective isn’t consuming income, but rather exchanging a lower value asset for a higher value asset.
Whether the trade is good or bad likely comes down to the reliability of the Astros’ scouting evaluation, like most baseball decisions.
I think this all comes
clack - April 17, 2009
continued (accidently hit post button)
I have no idea about the Astros’ evaluation of those other players in the system. They may feel that one or more of them has better potential to Sutton. They may feel that none of them, including Sutton, had the potential to be major leaguers. Maybe they think Keppinger is a long term solution after Matsui leaves. I think those are all things which could might give the Astros’ front office a different view.
In the short term, Maysonet is probably more useful as a call up than Sutton, if injuries occur in the middle infield, becaue he has more defensive versatility. His ceiling probably is as a utility player, though. If the Astros have a long term vacancy to fill at 2d base, they have a year to figure it out.
clack - April 17, 2009
The Astros Organizational Philosophy
can probably be summed up as follows:
1. “Pitching, speed, and defense up the middle,” that phrase that we heard so often last year.
2. If Tim Purpura hired you or drafted you, and the words “All-Star” don’t often hang around your name, there’s a very good chance that Ed Wade is going to drop you and replace you with someone of his own choosing.
Sutton is a victim of both of these, considering he was here when Wade got here, and he made 16 errors in 99 games at 2B last year in AA.
AstroAndy - April 17, 2009
The Astros value pitching?
natrix964909 - April 17, 2009
they spent 3
of their first 4 draft picks on pitchers…
so, since that was what Andy was talking about, yeah.
Only_A_Lad - April 17, 2009
Thanks for the assist, Only_A_Lad
In fact, in the first 10 rounds of last year’s draft, they picked up 6 pitchers, 3 center fielders, and 1 catcher. The only non-up-the-middle players they took in the first ten rounds were Chase Davidson, a 1B who we ended up not signing (but we’ll get a compensation pick in the next draft), and Jonathan Gaston, a RF who is OPSing 1.120 in Lancaster right now.
AstroAndy - April 18, 2009
Albert Cartwright
In the Sutton-Keppinger thread at Spikes and Stars, someone said that they liked Cartwright, the 22 year old 2d baseman at Lexington. Anyone know much about him? Farmstrohs?
clack - April 17, 2009
his Lexington stats
his Greenville stats
He won’t be 22 until October 31st. Not a lot of power, but he walks over 10% of the time and stole 13 bases in 39 games last year. Gotta like that.
Looking around, it seems like he was selected by the Mets in 2006, went to community college instead and was drafted by the Astros in 2008. Oddly enough, BA (as well as a news report) lists his birthplace as Nassau in the Bahamas, but BRef says Florida.
Only_A_Lad - April 17, 2009
Albert Cartwright
He may well be the best second base prospect left in the system. However, being in Lexington he is a few years away.
According to the Astros media guide, he WAS born in Bahamas.
He was drafted by Mets in 2006(43rd Round). Polk CC, then drafted by Astros in 2007. He spent two years in Greeneville with much improvement the second year. He did have 10 errors in those 39 games in 2008. If the comment on Spikes n Stars was from Duman, he sees all the Greeneville games and knows his stuff on the young players.
The point that AstroAndy made about Wade getting rid of Purpura guys seems to be right on target. I especially think of him getting LaTroy Hawkins and Randy Wolf for Matt Cusick and Chad Reineke. Seems he is trying to get something for the stuff that Purpura left in the garage to keep the team decent until his players can make an impact.
Another such deal that may have an impact…Tyler Lumsden for Jordan Parraz.
Other 2B options that make you hope Matsui stays healthy.
Mayonset, at 27, he’d be making an impact already if he were going to make an impact in my opinion.
Sutil and Molina at CC, TRIPLE A players at best
Cabral at Lancaster, he has already been released by at least one team.
farm_stros - April 17, 2009
When I was at the Express game
They’re apparently grooming Maysonet to be our utility infielder very shortly. He’s being played all over the infield so he can work out the kinks.
I agree with the Purpura point, but I think that’s not a very acceptable or logical basis for operating a franchise. It’s going to be three or four years before the first of the Wade guys make a splash at the big league level. What are we going to do until then?
Stephen Higdon - April 17, 2009
what are we going to do until then?
Be mediocre at best and hope Mr. McClane doesn’t run out of patience.
I suppose they could add $20-30 million to the budget but that is not happening. They will lose the Tejada contract after this year, so that will help if it is spent wisely.
I’m not sure if it has been mentioned Keppinger is not a free agent until after 2012(arbitration after this season)
farm_stros - April 17, 2009
Keppinger is a suitable option
But just as a basis of comparison, Sutton would have cost about $500,000 next year, a little more probably. Keppinger, will probably get a $2 million contract, and that’ll just keep escalating until 2012. It’s just a million to a few million difference each year, but that’s what irks me. If payroll is a concern, why not try and minimize costs where attractive substitutes exist?
Stephen Higdon - April 17, 2009
I think it depends on whether the Astros viewed Sutton as a "suitable option"...
McTaggert’s column said that several Astros officials told him that they saw Sutton up close in spring training and they didn’t think he could help the team. Obviously, they could be wrong, but if that is what they believed, then Sutton probably wasn’t considered a future option.
clack - April 17, 2009
I was about to post...
but Clack said about what I was going to say. I think the hope was to not have to decide how suitable Sutton and Johnson were until after this season. However, Boone’s heart forced the issue. Same thing with catching. Hall was there as insurance in case Palmisano, Towles, Santangelo weren’t ready. Of course, Hall is gone. Fortunately, they were able to pull Pudge off of the pile in that case. It would have been nice to do the same at second base. I would rather have Sutton than Maysonet, but apparently so would the Reds.
farm_stros - April 17, 2009
Is it a logical basis for running the franchise?
Maybe…it’s just playing the percentages…T. Purp’s guys haven’t exactly been tearing it up anywhere, have they? You could make an argument for Josh Anderson, but that’s probably a hindsight decision.
AstroAndy - April 17, 2009
Rangers
The Rangers played the game this way for years with the same result. In the past few years, however, they have built one of the best farm systems in baseball and are beginning to harvest its riches. The idea is to bring up a top talent (Teixieira), get a few good years out of them and when the salary demands become unmanageable, move them for a crop of new phenoms (Saltalamacchia, Andrus, Harrison, Feliz, Jones).
Caradoc - April 17, 2009
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