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The Crawfish Boxes

Bad Valverde, Good Valverde, and Pitch F/X: Converting an Astro win into a loss

Most pitches in baseball, besides curve balls, involve the pitcher putting a certain amount of backspin on the ball. Backspin keeps the ball from falling faster than it normally would if no backspin were applied. This can be used to the pitcher's advantage, but sometimes it can be used to his detriment. Tonight, Jose Valverde didn't seem to be his normal self. Whether it was because he just had an off night, or whether his back was bothering him, a greater percentage of his fastballs had  more backspin than in his more successful outings:

Valv5_medium

Below is a strikezone plot of a save he recorded against these same Reds August 28, 2008. Last season's appearance saw his pitches drop much quicker than this season's.

Valv1_medium

Fewer pitches up in the zone usually means greater success. There are a lot of variables that go into analyzing performances, but this was one that I noticed last night.

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Comments

more miscommunication with the manager?

Jose Ortiz at the Chronicle suggests that putting Valverde in the game was another case of miscommunication between manager, coaches and player.

The basis for his suggestion is more surmise than hard evidence, though. Valverde told Ortiz after the game that his back still hurts. He also said he isn’t going to turn his manager down if he is asked to close.

Cooper said there is nothing wrong with Valverde. Cooper said Valverde was throwing 95 mph, and that tells him Valverde is healthy. I recall hearing that comment myself and thinking, “wrong.” Ortiz correctly points out that a pitcher can be injured and still have good velocity. I would add that something like a back injury is more likely to affect control than velocity.

Ortiz says Cooper probably feels like his job is on the line and suggests that, as a result, he may be willing to take chances with an injured closer.

At first I thought it was just Ortiz trumping it up, and making a story where there isn’t one…or at least using a quote from after the game to suggest that Coop should have known something before the game. But then I realized that Coop didn’t play either Keppinger or Matsui last night, probably because of their backs. And apparently he’s considering (publicly, which is idiotic to do) not playing them again today and instead doing weird stuff in the infield like playing Pudge at 3B and Bourn at SS (Wandy bettter get 27 strikeouts today…).

Valverde only admitted to Ortiz that his back was hurting “not too much, a little bit” after “being pressed”. I can see Coop not pressing Valverde very hard to get how he’s feeling. But I can also see how even if Valverde told Coop he was not hurting too much, “just a little bit”, that’s not exactly an urgent, obvious sign that he shouldn’t put his closer in when it’s a one-run game.

Cooper's question to Valverde sounds like someone who doesn't want to know...

if he is still injured. If you really want to know if someone still has back pain, then you ask that question directly, and perhaps with several probing questions. If a reporter can do it, so can a manager.

But here is what Cooper said he asked:

I said, ‘Do you want me to close in the ninth inning tonight?’ And he said, ‘No. I got it.’

That question struck me as odd, when I heard him recount it during his press conference. It’s kind of an obtuse way of asking Valverde whether he wants to play tonight. After thinking about it, that question seems like something you would ask if you want to avoid making a determination whether he is injured or not.

Yeah

That’s infuriating. One would think that Coop had already learned his lesson about mismanaging pitchers when they’re suffering from tweaks and the like.

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