#28: Houston Astros (70-92, 731 RS, 843 RA)
You have to feel for Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman, who between them are enough to raise an average or even slightly-below-average team into the playoffs. Here, Oswalt fronts a rotation that includes Brian Moehler, Mike Hampton, and Russ Ortiz....The Kazuo Matsui/Michael Bourn dup at the top of the order could set up Berkman to hit .310 with 32 homers and 71 RBI. There's no internal depth, and no young players clamoring for jobs, which means that if Berkman, Oswalt, Carlos Lee, or Miguel Tejada fail, they could lose 100 games. All this, and they have to try to win now, because there's no base for rebuilding, and they did win 86 games last year. The rebuilding process here is going to be long and ugly.
We're making progress with them. At first the Astros were projected to win 66, now they're up to a whopping 70.
0 recs | 24 comments
Explain this to me.
BP thinks the Astros will allow more than 100 more runs this year than last year.
Yet every starter with an ERA above 5, from last year, is no longer in the rotation (Backe, Chacon, R. Hernandez, C. Sampson—with a 5+ ERA as a starter, Cassel). Otherwise 3/5ths of the starting rotation returns, and the 2 new members probably won’t have ERAs over 5 like the guys who aren’t there anymore. Yes, we don’t have 2 months of Wolf this year…but is that worth 100 runs?
Last year, the bullpen had 3 guys with an ERA above 7 and 2 guys with an ERA above 5, and all but one (Wright with a 5.01 ERA) remains in the bullpen. Some of the guys who are gone, Villareal and Borkowski in particular, really stunk it up. The good part of the bullpen remains, and in place of the those bad relievers, we now have a full year of Hawkins and Sampson in the bullpen.
clack - April 3, 2009
that first sentence of the second graph should read:
“and only one (Wright with a 5.01 ERA) remains…”
clack - April 3, 2009
i would guess....
PECOTA hates older players, and the astros have the oldest roster in baseball
Geary and Hawkins (with the Astros) probably pitched above their heads
We don’t have many strikeout pitchers…a lot of pitch to contact, FB pitchers, perhaps?
thats all i got
Evan Hochschild - April 3, 2009
yeah, it's mostly the rotation
PECOTA thinks Ortiz is crap and Hampton is only slightly better. Same goes for Moehler. It also isn’t too high on Wandy repeating his performance last season.
Personally, I think Wandy can do well this year and that Hampton might still have something left. I have less confidence in Ortiz, and Moehler just strikes me (and PECOTA, I suppose) as a guy who got very lucky last year and isn’t likely to do that again. I guess it balances out in the end, though.
On the other hand, (as Clack and others have pointed out many times) BPro hasn’t done the best job either predicting the Astros in the past or keeping up with defensive metrics. Maybe that adds a few more wins to the Astros, bringing them up to the projections y’all had from CHONE (or was it Marcel?).
Frankly, I kind of expect the worst from the coming season. Yeah, I’m optimistic in that the Astros might be able to pull something off, but unless the rotation pulls off something of a miracle, I think the PECOTA projection will probably be pretty accurate. I think, at the very most, the Astros can hope that they do roughly as well as they did last year, but that seems highly unlikely given the loss of Wolf and Wigginton.
It will be very interesting to see what Drayton and Wade do in July. If things go as BPro and most pundits think they will go, I think the Astros will probably be looking up at quite a few teams in the standings, and it will be hard to see Drayton pursuing the “win or die trying” strategy that he has tried for the last decade – not with the current state of the farm system or the economy. I doubt we’ll see a move for a Huff or a Wolf at the deadline, and it’s probably much more likely that we see guys like Valverde on the move.
Still, we’re all 0 games back on Tuesday, so there’s always room for hope.
Only_A_Lad - April 3, 2009
and, as they note
if Oswalt or Berkman go down, the Astros are totally fucked.
Only_A_Lad - April 3, 2009
I understand that BPro doesn't like Hampton and Ortiz...
but my point was that Hampton and Ortiz can be bad, but still better than the pitchers’ innings they replaced. Suppose Hampton and Ortiz have ERAs in the 4.9 – 5.2 range, that is still bettter than the 6 – 7 ERA range for pitchers they are replacing. I probably agree that Moheler overperformed, but most of the projection systems have him pegged in the high 4’s ERA, as opposed to the mid-4’s ERA he achieved…not a big enough deal to account for the huge increase in runs allowed.
Yeah, Hawkins and Geary may have overperformed with the Astros’ last year, but most of the projection systems still have them with ERAs in the 3’s…. And a full year of that kind of ERA by Hawkins will be an improvement, when it is compared to innings by Villareal.
Now maybe BPro doesn’t like the Astros’s minor league depth in pitching, and I can understand that….but again how does it justify more than 100 more runs allowed.
clack - April 3, 2009
it's only
a little over half a run per game (.617). I’d buy that.
But take a look at their depth chart for the Astros’ pitching corps. It’s reasonable, with reasonable predictions, I think, but the problem is predicting playing time. How much time will Hampton put in? 80 innings is safe, but we have no idea – he could put in way fewer than that, but he could put in way more. Same goes for Ortiz. And Wandy. And all those guys would be replaced with Capellan and Backe. And after them, who pitches? Paulino? Arias?
The pitching situation is a mess. And Wade’s doing a decent job trying to cover for that, but there’s only so much that you can do with projects and reclamation jobs. But that’s pretty much all the Astros have after Roy and Wandy, so I think their prediction makes sense.
This is a team that, if everything goes right – Roy is great, Wandy pitches well and stays healthy, all the other starters stay reasonably healthy, Hampton and Ortiz and Moehler put in solid efforts, and the bullpen doesn’t regress too much – could be contenders. But that’s just too much to reasonably ask. Depth is the issue (though the starters aren’t great, either).
Essentially, starting pitching is decent enough that I can believe a prediction up to a .500 winning percentage. But there’s such a significant depth problem that I can also believe a prediction of a 100 loss season.
Only_A_Lad - April 3, 2009
I'm not saying the pitching situation is great.
But I think the rotation and bullpen looks better now than it did going into the start of last season.
clack - April 3, 2009
true
it certainly wasn’t any better last year. The bullpen was a problem, and neither Chacon nor Sampson were expected to do much.
You never know what the hell’s going to happen – which veteran will suddenly regain his stuff, which prospect will suddenly explode.
Only_A_Lad - April 3, 2009
and Ben Sheets is still available
Depth is a problem – both pitching and battting depth – and there will be injuries. Injuries and no rest for the weary may kill the Astros.
I JUST WANT THE SEASON ROLLERCOASTER RIDE TO START !!!!!!!!!
Joe in Birmingham - April 3, 2009
for what it's worth...
Based on the 31 major league teams, the Astros were 15th in ERA and 15th in Ks….just about the median. The Astros were 7th best in BBs.
clack - April 3, 2009
And
they’ve got Berkman pegged for 71 RBIs. Really? ‘Cuz last year, he knocked in 106. The year before that? 102. In fact the last time he had that few RBI’s was in his first two years in the majors.
I know RBI’s aren’t the world’s best metric, but if they’re going to use them to support their rankings, I’m going to point out that they’re not even close to consistent with recent history.
AstroAndy - April 3, 2009
well
RBI doesn’t really factor into the rankings. They have PECOTA figure out median WARP projections for everybody on the team, estimate playing time, and then just do the math. PECOTA spits out RBI, Wins, HR, and other counting stats, but that’s pretty unreliable and it was never intended to estimate that. Berkman will probably get something around 100 RBIs, as well Lee, but it doesn’t really matter too much.
Only_A_Lad - April 3, 2009
They were being sarcastic
BP was just pointing out that the guys in front of Berkman won’t be reaching base too often.
natrix964909 - April 3, 2009
That's 28 with a bullet
I know I’m misguided but I would not be that surprised if Astros finished second in the division. I can’t see this team losing 90 games. They may not win 90 games, but they’ll be closer to 90 wins than 90 losses.
Joe in Birmingham - April 3, 2009
Since they're finishing 28th, let's speculate the 2010 draft situation...
Assuming Valverde is not traded he in all likelihood will be a type A free agent next offseason. He’ll be looking for a big multi-year deal so, Houston will be offering him arbitration, and he will be denying. In return Houston receives a first round pick + a first round supplemental. Next is Tejada who would likely be a type B free agent, Tejada is more of a gamble in arbitration but, I think he’d decline too. That would give Houston a second first supplemental pick.
So, Houston would receive the number 3 overall pick, a first round pick, and two sandwich round picks, not to mention the third second round pick, if they don’t sign a type A player.
I hope Houston competes, and makes the playoffs this season but, if Houston does perform poorly, they are setting themselves up for a very good draft.
byronlhsdrmr - April 3, 2009
Astros don't exactly have the best record at offering arbitration.
I like your point about arbitration…and I wouldn’t be suprrised if Tejada is an A player….but I’m not betting on the Astros offering arbiration to their players.
clack - April 3, 2009
Elias gives out some crazy ratings every year
An A rating is very possible.
Don’t forget Pudge, either. If he has a decent showing, I wouldn’t be surprised by a B (or even – hey it’s possible – an A) for him.
The Astros are going to have a lot of cash available this offseason, though. So it’s possible they go after some big free agents.
Only_A_Lad - April 3, 2009
Tejada could be risky for the team
What if he accepts arby? He’d be in line for a big number. Also the 1st might actually be a 2nd.
ol Pete - April 4, 2009
I think you are right.
I think Tejada will have a nice year. In that situation, there is a risk that arbitration would give him a lot of money. My tendency is to take those kind of risks, but the Astros seem scared—let’s call it a nice term, risk averse—of arbitration, and I don’t see them taking the risk. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if the Astros re-sign Tejada at the end of the season. He wants to stay here, and if the Astros could get him to sign a reasonable deal (obviously less than his current salary), I wouldn’t be shocked if that happened.
clack - April 4, 2009
You're right it's a risk
and because it’s a risk Houston probably would not offer him arb. like they didn’t offer Roger Clemens, Pettitte, and Randy Wolf arb. However, he is going to be looking for a multi year deal, and may turn it down. There is also a chance, if he has a good season, that he is signed before the arbitration process, automatically giving Houston the pick.
Valverde is an easy 2 picks though, hopefully a top 15 team picks him up so, Houston gets a first rounder and supplemental, rather than a supplemental, and second rounder.
Great point about money coming off the books. Both Valverde and Tejada, likely, will not be returning next season, and should give Houston 20 million ish to play with (unless Drayton wants to drop payroll a little), which means free agent starter! Plus Houston’s first round pick would be protected, in this situation — we’ve been discussing if they finish 28th, so it won’t hurt them to sign a type A free agent.
byronlhsdrmr - April 4, 2009
it's a lot more than 20 million, possibly
Backe, Blum, Boone, Brocail, Byrdak, Erstad, Geary, Hampton, Hawkins, Michaels, Moehler, and Pudge also come off the books. All together, that’s a little over $41 million. Tejada and Valverde make up more than half of that, though. Obviously, a lot of that money would have to go towards replacing some of the departing players (Bud Norris and Paulino could probably take over two spots, but the Astros would still have to replace essentially the whole bullpen), but the Astros would still have plenty of space left over.
And maybe Drayton will decide to expand payroll, too!
Only_A_Lad - April 4, 2009
I'm giving you props...
based on your blog (nice work)…
but mostly based on the fact that you’re a Packers fan
Evan Hochschild - April 4, 2009
Honestly?
I don’t see them as worse than 25th or 26th.
Austin Astroholic - April 3, 2009
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of The Crawfish Boxes to post a comment.