The year is 2011. Our world of sports is a very different place. For instance, NASCAR and MMA have skyrocketed in popularity, and threaten the supplant baseball as America's third most popular spectator sport. The 2010 Winter Olympics has passed, and nobody noticed. Ok. Some things are still the same. Our local baseball squad is nearing another one of those "Franchise Defining Moments".
This is the season where Lance Berkman is 35, and on the club option year of his contract. Roy Oswalt is playing in his last pre-club option year. Carlos Lee (sadly) is still two seasons away from having his contract be off the books. I will wager a guess that Oswalt and Berkman will be here until the very end. Lee's contract will prove tough to move, but maybe, just maybe, an oh-so-very-close-to-contending team will lessen the Astros financial burden. So, for purposes of this post, assume that another town's fans will have to come up with a Los Caballitos chapter.
Our own farm system, once the laughingstock of the blogosphere is now respectable. Three straight seasons of solid to good drafts, as well as the improvement of talent pre-Wade/Heck. Our scouting of Latin America has been re-emphasized after a decade of neglect. We stuck with the team through poor scouting, poor management, and meddling by Drayton McLane, Jr. (yes, he's still the owner).
Who makes up the Astros' roster? Make a trip to Minute Maid Park at Craig Biggio Field, and this is who you could be watching, if the Astros were to swear off free agents completely:
C: Jason Castro, J.R. Towles
1B: Lance Berkman
2B: Albert Cartwright
3B: Chris Johnson
SS: Edwin Maysonet
LF: Colin DeLome
CF: Brian Bogusevic, Michael Bourn
RF: Hunter Pence
SP: Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Ross Seaton, Polin Trinidad, Jordan Lyles
RP: Bud Norrs, Alberto Arias, Felipe Paulino, Chia Jen Lo, Wesley Wright
Brad Dydalewicz, Andrew Locke, Koby Clemens, Ebert Rosario and Jose Capellan should figure into the equation as well. Throw in Brad James and Sergio Perez, and the Astros will have a nice mix of veterans and young players. If, that long time owner will keep his mits off of things. Or at least keep his hands in his pockets a little more.
0 recs | 7 comments
What if Yordany Ramirez is as good as he has hit so far in AAA?
That may not be likely. But I was thinking about this outfield which could be ready by next year: Ramirez, LF; Bourn CF; Pence RF. That outfield would be so good defensively that teams practically would have to rely just on HRs to score. The Astros could face a situation next year where Ramirez, who will be out of options, and Bogusevic are both ready for the majors. But the Astros won’t have room for them—particularly with Carlos Lee’s bags of money sitting in LF. What will the Astros do if that scenario arises?
As for your 2011 lineup, I suspect that the Astros’ front office view would put Manzella at shortstop rather than Maysonet. I think the Astros view Maysonet as a utility player, particularly given Cooper’s opinion that Maysonet is not a “pure” shortstop.
clack - May 14, 2009
It's certainly a good problem to have
but I’d imagine one of them will have to get moved, right? If they’re both the real deal, we should be able to snare some pitching prospects in a deal.
Is this Bogie’s first year on the 40-man?
littlevisigoth - May 14, 2009
Fun to speculate
But your lineup includes 11 guys that would most likely be 1st or 2nd year players (figuring that CJ, Bogie, Norris, and Trinidad don’t get meaningful playing time this year). That only happens in the state of Florida. To say that we’d have 6 of those guys on the roster would be about as good as you could hope for if what you’re looking for is young, homegrown talent. Add to it that Towles, Bourn, Pence, Arias, Paulino, and Wright will all still be in their arb years, and you’ve only got two guys (Berkman and Oswalt) that will be pulling down large dollar contracts. Granted, you’ve only got 20 names listed, but if Tejada, Matsui, Valverde, and Lee are all off the books, there’s no way we wouldn’t be going after a big name or three in FA or trade. The fan base wouldn’t stand for such a low payroll.
The nice thing about this list is that it appears that there may be some legitimate talent on the not-so-distant horizon. If all of these guys pan out, our farm system rankings should shoot up the charts, and mixing some of them in with established veterans acquired in FA or trade and we could be serious contenders again. In reality, we all know that a lot of guys that look promising in A-league, just don’t develop all the way into MLB players. It’ll be interesting to see which of these guys make it.
littlevisigoth - May 14, 2009
tiny bit of good news
I believe Lee’s blanket no trade ends after 2010 & he becomes a 10 & 5 guy for a bit more wiggle room if we can move him (probably involve paying a large part of his remaining salary).
I’m not sure if Cot’s has this or not and I don’t have time to check right now. If I"m wrong, please let me know.
lnewcomer - May 14, 2009
You are correct
Stephen Higdon - May 14, 2009
I still dont understand...
…why everyone wants to get rid of Carlos Lee…since hes been on this team he has outplayed everyone on this roster…everyone complains about his salary but hes the only guy who constistently earns his money…the only players in the majors more consistent than him in the last 8 years have been A-rod and Pujols…everyone loves Lance, as do i, but Carlos Lee is clearly a better hitter than Lance is…when Carlos Lee went down last year, so did Berkmans numbers…Berkman hasnt been playing well all season but Carlos is still getting hits consistently as usual…I guess everyone likes Lance cause he came up on the ’stros but if your talkin about who will benefit the team more than its Carlos…trading Berkman and moving Lee to 1B would be a smarter decision than trading Lee…In 2011 Berkman will not be a presence in this league anymore…and why is Bogusevic starting over Bourn!?!?…Bourn has established himself as a Gold Glove Caliber fielder and he has made major improvements on his hitting and plate discipline…Bogusevic doesnt have as much range as Bourn and will not be a defensive improvement and he doesnt even have the XB power that people think he does…move him to Left and get this Delome character outta there…he def. wont be ready or better than Bourn by 2011…cmon
The Bourn Believer - May 14, 2009
Okay
I’m not going to delve too deep into the numbers, but to say Carlos Lee is “clearly a better hitter than Lance is” is patently absurd. You might be able to make an argument that Lee is more consistent, and he for sure strikes out less, but Lance year after year posts better slugging numbers and the on-base percentages aren’t even close. Lance’s career OPS is more than 100 points better than Lee. Also, Lance is an above average 1st baseman. It’s his natural position. Just because Lee is big and slow, people say he should move to 1B, not because he can actually play 1st base.
Granted, Lance is struggling right now, and he’s shown us that he goes through these patches from time to time, but he also puts up streaks like he did last May where he’s THE BEST HITTER IN THE GAME. It evens out pretty well. Obviously Lee is off to a better start, but even over the last two seasons, which were CAREER seasons at the plate for Lee, Lance posted OPS numbers 50 (08) and 14 (07 – possibly the worst year in Lance’s career) points higher.
Now granted, the only areas in which Lee’s skills are deminishing are in his defense and his running game. Make no mistake about it, he is still an elite hitter at the plate and is about as consistent as they come (and his three seasons with the Astros have been clearly the best three-year stretch of his career). He doesn’t take a lot of walks, but unlike a lot of sluggers, he actually changes his approach to fit the count and more often than not makes good contact and has very low strikeout numbers. A lot of people make the argument that he’s becoming SO much of a liability on defense, that he’s offsetting his contributions at the plate. I’m not sure I’m on board with that just yet. I’m certainly not in the “first step: get rid of Lee” boat, which it seems like some people are, but under no circumstances would I go along with the notion that he’s more valuable to this team than Lance Berkman. I haven’t even mentioned yet that Lee’s going to be making $4MM more than Lance (27.5% more) in 2010 and $3.5MM (23%) more in 2011.
As for the other positions, I think this list is sort of a wish list of who might pan out to be good. DeLome is doing well so far in Corpus, and put up solid numbers in two levels of A-ball last year. If he keeps this pace, he should be playing for somebody’s major league club by 2011. Whether or not it’s ours is another story. We might end up with a glut of major league ready outfielders by the end of this year. Like I said above, that would be a good problem to have. Whether or not any of them will be ready to supplany Bourn is another story.
littlevisigoth - May 14, 2009
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