In case you're wondering, I won't answer the question in my headline.
However, I will examine some Astros' rankings on ways to make extra outs. A frequent topic of Astros discussion--sometimes raised by manager Cecil Cooper--is why a team with a good overall batting average can rank so poorly in scoring runs. The usual stats for answering that question are found in various runners in scoring position (RISP) hitting rates, but I won't go into that, since it has been hashed over quite a bit. I will look at some rankings we don't talk about very much, like making extra outs. If you are having trouble turning base runners and hits into runs, it makes sense that giving away outs doesn't help the cause.
I started this exercise while watching the Astros' extra inning win on Tuesday, and getting increasingly frustrated when it seemed that the Astros should score more runs than what they put on the scoreboard. After an Astros hitter ground into a double play, I consulted baseball-reference.com. And, I was pleasantly surprised by the array of team stats (though not alway pleasantly surprised by the Astros' rankings). All of the rankings below are for the National League.
Ground into Double Play
The Astros' hitters are second in grounding into double plays, behind only the Dodgers. Astros GIDP: 50 vs. League average 38. But that ranking doesn't tell the whole story. The Dodger have well over 100 more opportunities than the Astros to hit into the GIDP. The Astros are second in GIDP, but below league average in GIDP opportunities (about 20 fewer opportunities than average). That means that the Astros have the worst GIDP rate (13%), with the Giants and Braves just below the Stros.
Walks
Usually, when we think of players who make too many outs, we think of players who are allergic to walks. Walks generally mean that a team is better at preserving its outs. The Astros rank poorly in walks, 14th out 16 teams. (Only the Giants and Pirates are worse.) You probably know that the Astros swing away, as a group, and frequently make contact as batters. The Astros are 13th in pitches/plate appearance. (Not good.) Opposing pitchers throw the second highest percentage of strikes to the Astros (ranked 2d in strike percentage). The Astros are 2d best at putting the ball in play. The Astros are 3d in the rate of swinging at pitches. The Astros are 3d worst at seeing 3-0 counts.
Baserunning Outs
The Astros rank No. 1 in the league in caught stealing with 21. The Mets are next worst at 18. This looks even worse when you realize that the Astros are league average in the number of base stealing opportunities (for example, the Mets had about 20 more opportunities). This looks even worse when you realize that the Astros have the second worst stolen base percentage (60%). Milwaukee is worst with 54%. The Astros have been caught stealing at 3d base (4) more than any other team. The Astros are 6th in outs made while base running (excludes SB attempts and pick offs). (The Reds and the Mets are the worst, 1 and 2.)
Sacrifice Bunts
A sacrifice bunt, by definition, is an example of giving up an out. Sacrifice bunts are bad percentage plays in many situations. However, I am not as "anti-sac bunt" as many writers. I think the context is important, and in the right time and place, the sac bunt can be a good play. Also, keep in mind that many sac bunts are made by pitchers, which is more frequently a good play. The Astros have attempted the 4th most sac bunts. The Mets and Reds, by far, outpace the rest of the league in sac bunt attempts. (Baker and Manuel have their prefered style of play, apparently.) Unfortunately, the Astros are 12th in sac bunt success rate. The D-Backs and Cubs have the worst rate of success. A good ranking for the Astros: they are No. 1 in productive outs. That is a double edged sword. A productive out is normally good, but it is related to the Astros' high ball in play rate, which probably means that there is a trade off with walks.
Pinch Hits
This isn't strictly a "making extra outs" stat. But I throw pinch hitting in there, because I think it helps explains a lack of runs. The Astros are 6th in most at bats taken by pinch hitters. The Astros are next to last in number of pinch hits (9). The Brewers are worst with 8. The Astros are 13th in RBIs by pinch hitters. The Astros are tied for last in home runs by pinch hitters (0).
Comments
The manager's decisions and style of play are partly responsible for the rankings. Cecil Cooper embraces aggressive base running, and that surely factors into the base running stats. Cooper says that he doesn't mind outs on the base paths as long as they result from aggressiveness. However, the construction of the team also has a lot to do with the rankings. Put together a lot of free swinging contact hitters who aren't particularly fast, and you will get GIDPs. Based on the Astros' team makeup in the Wade years, I have to conclude that the Astros don't put a lot of emphasis on walks. And, of course, the players' base running judgement and approach at the plate also bears responsibility.
4 recs | 19 comments
Just
Wow
Well written and terribly illuminating as to how many things this team does wrong. The good news, is that most of things are pretty easily correctible, should managerial tactics change.
Stephen Higdon - June 3, 2009
I think this is an excellent analysis of the causes
of the Astros’ lack of scoring. Nice article!
There is an overall measure of offensive efficiency – plate appearances per run scored – that illustrates just how much trouble the Astros have scoring runs. The Astros have to send 9.22 batters up to the plate for every run they score, third worst in the NL (behind SF and SD, each at 9.4). The league average is 8.3 and the leaders are LA (7.0) and Philly (7.4).
I think overall team efficiency is the direct responsibility of the manager, as he is responsible for the lineups, strategies, and situational decisions which are the components of efficiency. So I think you are being very easy on Cooper when you say “The manager’s decisions and style of play are partly responsible for the rankings”. Looks like the individual batters are pretty well doing their jobs, and I think the manager is not putting the pieces together very well at all.
bwhite2323 - June 3, 2009
Thanks for the numbers
Very illuminating.
I think I’m going to lean with you that this isn’t ENTIRELY damning of Coop, but certainly doesn’t say a lot of good things. It’s unlikely that Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada, and Ivan Rodriguez, probably the free-swingingest, contact-makingest, slowest, double-play hitting into-est bunch on the team will be changing their batting styles too drastically anytime soon. It is nice to see two guys that struggled in this regard last season, Pence and Bourn, making some positive strides. Neither of them have distinguished themselves as superior baserunners, be it with their low stolen base percentages or poor decision-making on the basepaths (Bourn ABSOLUTELY should have scored in the first inning on Monday when he neglected to take 2nd on a passed ball, then got caught stealing later in the AB, only to have Lee single later in the inning which would have easily scored Bourn from 2nd).
Anyway, good nuggets to mull over. We’ll see if this holds all season and if the Astros continue to suffer from an inability to capitalize on baserunners.
littlevisigoth - June 3, 2009
Well done.
JD for manager!!
joeljr - June 3, 2009
Excellent analysis
Submit it to Hardball Times just to see if they will publish it.
Are their numbers on other baserunning outs, such as pick offs and, the Astros curse, runners trying to take one too many bases?
Making the walks numbers even worse, Lance Bekman has about 35% of the walks if I remember correctly.
Joe in Birmingham - June 3, 2009
The “outs on base” stat is what I cited for “other baserunning outs.” The Astros ranked 6th which means they were worse than average. (Outs on base includes attempting to advance on either a fly ball out or a hit, doubled off on a line drive, and attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.) The Astros were somewhat better than average on pick offs, with 4 when the league average is 6. Arizona base runners have been picked off 10 times.
clack - June 3, 2009
In my mind I was thinking of episodes like
Carlos Lee thrown out trying to run from first to third, or Tejada trying for a double, or trying to go from first to second on a fly to center, or Tejada and Bourn (on consecutive days) caught between first and second when a runner (Maysonet in both cases I think) stopped at third.
I bet it would just reinforce the other numbers.
Anyway — Great Analysis and Writing. Someone ought to save this one for the almanac.
Joe in Birmingham - June 3, 2009
Discipline
The biggest problem with this team is the lack of discipline. We are not patient at the plate, do not run the bases well, and do not play good small ball. This is largely a fault of two things coaching and leadership. We have many high effort players in Tejada, Pence, Pudge and Bourn. We have patient hitters in Berkman and Lee. We do not know how to consistently play as a team.
I would really like to see Art Howe as the manager and Jeff Bagwell as the hitting/ baserunning coach. This team has the talent. If Bourn could be taught how to use his speed and Berkman and Lee could improve their hitting this team improves leaps and bounds.
Killer Bee - June 3, 2009
Small edit. By Berkman and Lee improving their hitting, I mean getting out of their slumps.
Killer Bee - June 3, 2009
I think this thread shows that a manager has a lot more influence on a teams wins than most numbers people will agree too.
joeljr - June 3, 2009
This is so good, I’ve read it three times. Great work clack.
AstroAndy - June 3, 2009
Intriguing
And written so that a non-sabermetric person like myself could understand it (well, mostly).
In other news, the Braves cut Glavine.
Danyah - June 3, 2009
Clarification
Very-well written post—the “mostly” above was directed at myself, not the article. = )
Danyah - June 3, 2009
This article has given me a lot of food for thought this evening
This team has no real identity. We’re utter failures at small ball (as your article shows), both because of coaching and because of team makeup.
But we’re not good at being a “big ball” team either (I don’t exactly know what the opposite of small ball is). As of game time tonight, we ranked 23rd in home runs with 42 total (11th out of 16 NL teams). The Rangers have literally twice as many homers.
Your article points to some good short term solutions. Stop playing small ball. No more bunting except for pitchers. When it comes to stealing bases, everyone should have a redlight, except our one or two fastest guys, who then receive special attention from whichever coach is in charge of baserunning. And we’ve got to find a way to strengthen our bench. This is the weakest bench we’ve had in a very long time.
Long-term, it’ll come down to diversifying the team. Having guys who swing away can be a very beneficial thing, but it’s bad to have a team full of them. It’ll come down to drafting and smart free agent acquisitions in an attempt to diversify the major-league-portfolio. Find guys who can work a count. Find guys who can leg it out to 2nd base and beat the double play (this could probably be helped simply by being a younger team).
I said it earlier, but I’ll say it again…great article…it had big picture and it had detail, and I really think you put your finger on a major problem for this year’s team.
AstroAndy - June 3, 2009
I've always felt, ideally, that a team should have a mix of different hitter types.
A lineup full of Adam Dunns would be frustrating just like a lineup of DP-hitting contact hitters. I think a balance of different types of hitters would produce more consistency.
clack - June 3, 2009
I just have to concur whole heartily with this statement
Stephen Higdon - June 4, 2009
So what is the benefit of having free swingers?
(And, yes, this was a great article.)
Caradoc - June 4, 2009
They don’t turn into Morgan Ensberg.
AstroAndy - June 4, 2009
well, there are different kinds of free swingers..
There are free swingers who whiff a lot and rack up the strike outs. Then there are free swingers who make a lot of contact and don’t strike out so much. Carlos Lee and Miguel Tejada fit that profile. The positive for that kind of hitter is that you might get more productive outs (moving batters over). But the downside is you get fewer walks…and if they hit the ball on the ground a lot and aren’t very fast you, then the GIDP numbers rise. I do think that the Astros had kind of an over-reaction to the Ensberg/Lane era, and sought out contact hitters.
clack - June 4, 2009
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