So here we stand at the All Star Break, the Astros a level 44-44. Eighty-eight games the Astros find themselves tied for third in the NL Central with the Chicago Cubs and a scant 3.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals. I doubt that there are many out there who would have seen this coming in March, but nonetheless, the Astros find themselves in the middle of a division race in which there is no favorite. All these teams have battled underperformance and injury, and none seems to be the complete package.
The question, obviously, is what does this portend for the Astros chances to find themselves in the top of the NL Central or the NL Wildcard (where they are 5.5 games back with four teams between them and the Giants).
The last time we did this, June 16th, the Astros were 4.5 Games out of the Central and 4 out of the wild card, and things have gotten better:
| Model | Odds |
| BPro Unadjusted | 5.25729% |
| BPro Schedule Adjusted | 10.43277% |
| BPro PECOTA ADJUSTED | 6.07269% |
| Cool Standings | 11% |
| SCS Weighted |
4.4% |
| SCS 50/50 | 17.7% |
The odds kind of bounce around from model to model, but in every instance, there is improvement:
| Model | Delta |
| BPro Unadjusted | o.531% |
| BPro Schedule Adjusted | 2.17459% |
| BPro PECOTA ADJUSTED | 1.97474% |
| Cool Standings | 5.5% |
| SCS Weighted |
1.9% |
| SCS 50/50 | 5.4% |
No matter how we decided to look at it, the Astros have managed to keep themselves in a position to make things interesting for us in the second half. A lot of emphasis has been placed on the first month after the break, and perhaps it will be make or break, but for now the Astros sit on very manageable odds at providing us with some second half excitement. I, for one, can't ask for anything more than that from this team.
After the jump there are explanations for what the various models are doing for anyone who is new to my postseason odds posts.
The BPro Unadjusted model uses a standard monte carlo simulation and runs it a million times. When the Astros have enough wins to make the playoffs, they are credited with with a 1, and when they're not, they get a zero. While I have placed a percentage in front of it the BPro numbers, they could be read as the Astros made the playoffs x (remove the decimal point and percentage) times over 1,000,000.
The BPro Schedule Adjusted model utilizes Nate Silver's (now primarily of 538.com) interpretation of the popular soccer odds making model, ELO. It takes into account the strength of teams schedule by looking at their performances between teams to weight the monte carlo. PECOTA adjusted just means it uses the PECOTA prediction of a team's talent to weight its probability for success later. Since we all vociferously disagreed with PECOTA's assessment of the team's true talent level, I say screw'em.
Both Cool Standings and Sports Clubs Stats have excellent explanations at varying degrees of technical proficiencies, and I'll leave the truly curious reader to delve into them. Just know that the SCS 50/50 model isn't very sophisticated.
0 recs | 15 comments
Labor Day
A .500 team is still in the hunt. Only a handful of teams have bit the dust at this point.
The next critical date is Labor Day. Will Astros be in position to mount a September drive.
The (to me) surprising Giants have a leg up on the Wild Card ; but if they (or the Dodgers) stumble, the Wild card will be a race.
Cardinals live and die on Albert Pujols. Currently they are living high on that hog. Pujols usualy has at least one lengthy health issue each season. As far as I know, he has stayed healthy so far this season. Brewers have lost confidnece lately. Watch out for them if they regain their swagger.
I can only peek at the Astros schedule from here to Labor Day. A full view sends me kneeling at the toilet bowl
Joe in Birmingham - July 13, 2009
starters/bullpen/hitting
Brewers doing a good job of having one of three not performing most of the time. The bats have been coming around (except Braun). The bullpen that had been excellent has given away a couple. Starter performance has been a roll of the dice including Gallardo.
ol Pete - July 13, 2009
do you think the brewers will make a big mid season acquisition?
the Brewers could get themselves in the drivers’ seat by trading for a good pitcher. and the Brewers may be in the best position, among NL Central teams, to make that kind of move.
clack - July 13, 2009
I don't think so
They need Escobar and Gamel to continue to put a good team on the field in future years and Halladay or Lee would cost one or both of those guys plus who knows. After that there is nothing I would call big. The one outlier is Bedard, but he has all sorts of health problems which make it a hard deal to construct as well as a risk.
I suppose there is the very long shot that Hardy would be traded for one of the above. That’s one of those things that might work on paper, but I’d be surprised.
ol Pete - July 14, 2009
I think it can be exciting
but the odds seem to be stacked against the Astros. It looks like it will take 90 wins to win the wild card this year (as opposed to 89 the past 5). If the Astros win 90 games, however, they’ll probably win the Central Division. Clearly, the Astros best chance is to win the Central Division, where perhaps only 88 wins will be enough.
To win 88 games on the season, the Astros need to play .595 baseball for the balance of the season. However, as Joe quite correctly points out above, the Astros have a very tough schedule for the balance of the season. What are their chances of winning nearly 60% of those games?
Well, not too good, but not impossible. Since May 25, the Astros have had arguably the easiest schedule in the National League and they have won 26 and lost 19 for a .577 percentage. To win the magic 88, they have to increase their winning percentage against what may be the toughest schedule in the National League.
I project the Astros to have a 50% chance to win at least 83 games and be eliminated from playoff contention in Philadelphia on September 28th. I project a 20% chance of winning 88 or more. They’ll have a much better chance if they stay relatively injury free, eliminate the base running and defensive gaffes that have hurt them so much during the first part of the season, get some decent hitting from the bench, and most importantly start strategizing to score more than one run at a time. I think that depends more on the mangers and coaches than the players. Too bad, because I have much more confidence in the players.
bwhite2323 - July 13, 2009
Well
Then I hope Manny Acta’s phone is ringing.
Stephen Higdon - July 13, 2009
I think there is pretty signficant chance....
that the winning number for the division could be 86 games, or even 84 games like 2007. Assuming that all but Pittsburgh continue to stay bunched together for most of the season, these teams will be beating each other up a lot. All of these NL Central teams have flaws, and not just minor flaws either. I suppose we can only hope that the manager changes some of his costly strategies. Maybe at some point, Ed Wade will tell him to change his ways.
clack - July 13, 2009
According to my stats
there is a 96% chance that at least one team in the Central will win 88 games. The difference between this season and 2007 (when 85 games won the division, not 84) is that every team but Pittsburgh has a credible shot at winning 88. In 2007, only 2 teams in the Central Division finished above .500
Still, probabilities are probable and not certain, and when the difference is only a few games one way or the other, anything can happen. Hope springs eternal, or at least until three weeks into September…
bwhite2323 - July 13, 2009
I doubt
that Coop would change his ways even if Selig told him what to do( dang I can’t stand that guy but that’s a diff topic all together), but maybe that might just push Ed to make the change. Don’t get me wrong I agree to being agressive when the tome is right but with this group of players I believe that the “green light” should turn a very vibrant color of red unless their name is Bourn and on occasion Pence or Matsui( if he was ever on base in a pinch-runnin situation cause God knows he is having hell getting on on his own terms). But, That’s just my own belief about our “every body has a green light” manager. Oh be the whole bullpen overuse, late inning subs( specifically in LF), and no communication skills but WTF don’t they have classes for that? Yea they do speech 101: how to communicate with others!!!
Z-Dub - July 13, 2009 via mobile
In all likelihood
Coop is solidly in place until the end of this season. Even worse, if they start making excuses for him (injuries, didn’t really have all that great a team, helped Pence and Bourn improve, etc.) he will be here at least until the All-Star break next year.
And remember, the race issue is a factor, too. I’m sure Selig wants to keep him in place – and when Selig speaks, McLane becomes a bobble-head doll.
bwhite2323 - July 13, 2009
Every year
I fear the famed Astros second-half run won’t come that year. I’m feeling it once again in 2009. I hope they prove me wrong, they were in worse shape at the break last year. I’ll stop before I jinx anyone.
jonthefon - July 14, 2009
They need one more starting pitcher
Something like the deal made last year with Randy Wolf. The pitcher doesn’t need to be a 1 or even a 2 but a number 3 pitcher. Moehler, Ortiz, and Hampton are either a 4 or 5 starting pitcher. They could even look to the minors at Paulino or Norris for that number 3 starter.
Timothy De Block - July 14, 2009
Ben Sheets?
Wasn’t he supposed to sign with someone after the ASB?
Only_A_Lad - July 14, 2009
I recall reading that he will take longer to rehab than originally anticipated, and that it may be next season before he is pitching again.
clack - July 14, 2009
That's what I last recall reading a few weeks ago too
But I even caught myself thinking today, “What the hell ever happened to Ben Sheets? Could we sign him?”
Stephen Higdon - July 14, 2009
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