nice comment...and I hate to muddy things up with stat geeky stuff...
but fangraphs has an article on the supposed HR Derby slump effect. the article looks a the worst cases (which includes Berkman) and suggests that it is really regression to mean. Players who are having very good first halves are invited to the HR derby. Therefore, it makes sense that those players are likely to see some regression in the second half. The explanation makes sense to me.
maybe this means that Pujols will have a regression in his performance in the second half anyway. unfortunately, I’m not sure that Pujols ever regresses to the mean.
OT...why do people have to "dis" Pence when they something nice about Kemp?
This quote which was re-printed at BBTF (from this article):
42. Matt Kemp
Kemp is doing a good job in ‘09 and giving solid 5-tool production. Nicknamed "the Bison" he had better start hitting a few more home runs. Overall, he just looks like a good ballplayer which is half the battle for some guys (Yeah, that means you Hunter Pence. You’re goofy as hell, figure it out.)
26. Lance Berkman
Lance is struggling a bit in ‘09, but he has one of the sweetest swings in baseball and is a tremendous switch hitter. I would love to see Lance get traded to a contender because I think he’d be a great postseason player for a title contender. Also, Lance looks like he might have one of the biggest heads I’ve ever seen. Maybe it’s the chubby cheeks. Maybe it’s the hair. We need a ruling on this.
Since when was a 147 OPS+ “struggling”? It’s not even “struggling” for him. It’s perfectly average for him. Yeah, he got off to a tough start, but that was over about six weeks ago.
Oh, and to be fair, Pence does look goofy. Everything he does looks goofy and awkward, and yet it is very effective.
Whoaaaaaa
First two votes go to A-Gonzalez? Awesome. He seemed like a nice dark horse candidate to me.
Evan Hochschild - July 13, 2009
Brandon Inge
Ham Fighters represent!
Only_A_Lad - July 13, 2009
0 homers
See, this sort of clutch performance is why the Ham Fighters are in 5th place in the CB American League right now.
Only_A_Lad - July 14, 2009
That and my stubborn belief that Giambi would eventually turn it around.
Only_A_Lad - July 14, 2009
I hope it's Pujols
Alyson Footer said on her blog that she has observed a post-Derby slump too many times for it to be coincidence.
Go Prince Albert!! = )
Danyah - July 13, 2009
comment of the season
Evan Hochschild - July 13, 2009
Nothing you could say would ever make me root for Albert Pujols.
But this comes darn close.
AstroAndy - July 13, 2009
This one could
Stephen Higdon - July 13, 2009
For me
At least
Stephen Higdon - July 13, 2009
I will root for him to get second place in the HR Derby
AstroAndy - July 13, 2009
That's as far as I'll go
AstroAndy - July 13, 2009
Fair enough
I think I’ll go that route too.
Stephen Higdon - July 13, 2009
nice comment...and I hate to muddy things up with stat geeky stuff...
but fangraphs has an article on the supposed HR Derby slump effect. the article looks a the worst cases (which includes Berkman) and suggests that it is really regression to mean. Players who are having very good first halves are invited to the HR derby. Therefore, it makes sense that those players are likely to see some regression in the second half. The explanation makes sense to me.
maybe this means that Pujols will have a regression in his performance in the second half anyway. unfortunately, I’m not sure that Pujols ever regresses to the mean.
clack - July 13, 2009
No please
Muddy things up with stat geekery as often as possible.
Stephen Higdon - July 13, 2009
As we might all recall
Berkman’s “post-HRB slump” last season began several weeks before the ASG.
Well, he does. But his mean is most other players’ peaks.
Only_A_Lad - July 13, 2009
FML
Stephen Higdon - July 13, 2009
OT...why do people have to "dis" Pence when they something nice about Kemp?
This quote which was re-printed at BBTF (from this article):
42. Matt Kemp
Kemp is doing a good job in ‘09 and giving solid 5-tool production. Nicknamed "the Bison" he had better start hitting a few more home runs. Overall, he just looks like a good ballplayer which is half the battle for some guys (Yeah, that means you Hunter Pence. You’re goofy as hell, figure it out.)
clack - July 13, 2009
because writers are lazy
and nobody wants to do their research anymore
Only_A_Lad - July 13, 2009
for instance,
later in the article:
Since when was a 147 OPS+ “struggling”? It’s not even “struggling” for him. It’s perfectly average for him. Yeah, he got off to a tough start, but that was over about six weeks ago.
Oh, and to be fair, Pence does look goofy. Everything he does looks goofy and awkward, and yet it is very effective.
Only_A_Lad - July 13, 2009
I noticed that Chip Bailey, who has the Chronicle’s fan blog, awarded a tie to Oswalt and Berkman at the mid-season for “most disappointing players.”
clack - July 13, 2009
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