Joe Sheehan is at it again, full of words of advice for Ed Wade. Moves he suggests the Astros should just try out, and see what happens:
See if J.R. Towles, now 25 and two years removed from being loved here, can bring back an upgrade in the infield, maybe Jhonny Peralta or Freddy Sanchez.
Keep in mind that he offered this suggestion before Lance Berkman landed on the DL, so consider that before you give him the benefit of the doubt.
Next up in his bag o' tricks:
Jordan Lyles might be the organization’s best prospect now, but his main value is probably as the centerpiece of an offer for Victor Martinez.
?? Maybe, for the future draft picks we could get if Martinez turned down our arbitration offer, but I still don't know if it would be worth it. I would hesitate to trade a top fifty prospect like Lyles for Victor Martinez. Especially considering that Lance Berkman is our first baseman for the foreseeable future, and that Jason Castro is moving swiftly through the minor leagues. But, wait! That last "roadblock" is solved by Sheehan's next sentence:
Throw a bunch of B- and C-level prospects—the system lacks A-level guys—for Jarrod Washburn. Find out what the industry thinks of Jason Castro
Yes! That's it, Joe! Trade for this guy. Someone who is playing so far above his head, it's mind-blowing. Baseball Prospectus always throws that at the Astros- they play above their heads, they're lucky, blah, blah, blahhhhhh...So why add another one of those supposedly blessed players?
He finishes up by throwing out a Hunter Pence for Matt Holliday and a pitcher from Oakland trade. Bottom line, the Astros must be buyers.
At this point, does Sheehan even research when he writes about the Astros? Or does he just rely on his own subjective opinions and perceptions about the team? I'm gonna go with the latter....
Speaking of Mr. Holliday, the Cardinals are interested in obtaining the Athletics' OF. They're dangling top prospect Brett Wallace to get him. I'd be wary if I were St. Louis- the last time they traded with the A's, this guy got away.
Mr. Bill James weighs in on the steroids controversy. When he talks, we all should listen.
Beyond the Boxscore bumps the Astros up to 24th in their power rankings. Hooray!
I'd be remiss if I failed to mention Mark Buehrle and his perfect game. Perpetually underrated, he sent 27 Rays down in order.
0 recs | 22 comments
Strange morning wakeup read
2 responses: First someone named AndyLever wrote a nice response to Joe Sheehan:
The perennial refrain about the Astros is that they don’t have a good farm system and they’re overly fond of veterans. And yet your advice is to trade some of the younger stars under team control (Pence, Castro, Lyles) for veterans and push for a pennant. That’s what got the Astros into the mess they’re in now. Continuing to do so won’t get them out that mess anytime soon. The most conservative thing for them to do at this point, actually, is to not be splashy and pray that Oswalt, Berkman, Wandy, Pence, and Lee still have some juice left in the tank when the fruits of the 2008 draft start filtering into the big club.
Second, the BTB rankings – How much faith can you put in a rankings that puts forth Arizona Diamondbacks as the FIFTH best National League team?
Joe in Birmingham - July 24, 2009
that was my thought as well
it’s almost like sheehan was thinking: “hmmmm, if they actually do some of these things, they’ll get worse and then we can harp on them for another five years!”
as for the btb rankings, it’s the eternal sabermetricians’ prerogative to discuss the “what should be” rather than the “what is”. It’s like studying econ, at least in my experiences- the “rational” minded individual isn’t always so rational minded, by the same token a baseball season doesn’t play itself out on computers and projected run scored/run allowed totals…
Evan Hochschild - July 24, 2009
yeah, that was me
AstroAndy - July 24, 2009
nice job!
Joe in Birmingham - July 24, 2009
If the Astros could trade some combination of their AAA prospects (say, Norris, Bogusevic, and Towles) for Lee, I would do that. But I wouldn’t trade Lyles, Seaton, Castro, etc. Of course, I realize that the AAA prospects aren’t rated highly enough to acquire a pitcher of that quality. But, I’m just saying I would do it if for some reason the Indians were to bite on that trade (hey, the Indians liked Jeriome Robertson at one time).
It would be nice if the Astros had a AAAA slugger who could bat lefthanded at either 3d base or 1st base, which allow a platoon with Coste or Keppinger while Berkman is out. But I don’t see any possibilities. If Carlos Lee could play 1st base, then putting Bogusevic in LF would be a possibility.
clack - July 24, 2009
i agree
i dont mind giving the Norris, Towles, Bogusevis, Lo, Manzella, etc. for Lee or Halladay…just not the lyles, Seatons, Castro, etc.
EveryHoustonTeamRox! - July 24, 2009
No No No
Don’t trade away what little youth we have. I understand Berkman being out with his trip to the DL but we have just begun to rebuild the system and we shouldn’t be tearing down
We need to hold onto the future like Castro, Lyles, Norris and the other select prospects in our still razor thin minor league system
Don’t sell the farm! Let’s play ball and continue the 2nd half surge
Bagwell5 - July 24, 2009
I'd be surprised if second tier prospects net a big fish
Maybe something will happen right before the deadline, but I doubt it. The brewcrew have lots of “solid” prospects and would do a deal for Lee instantly if they could keep top guys. The Mariners might not want to give anyone up just because of the dynamic of being in a pennant race, but if they did, Jack Z knows the system and could assemble a package for Washburn.
The Astros would be nuts for letting Pence go. I’ll agree with clack, find a AAAA guy who rakes. Cubs are getting use out of Jake Fox, Reds have Gomes (expletive!) – I’d think one would be available somewhere.
ol Pete - July 24, 2009
And I got laughed at for my trade suggestions?
IF the Astros get the fever and decide to become buyers, starting pitching is the only position they should consider. No way the Astros should be buyers unless it nets a starting pitcher that they can count on as a #2 or #3 in the 2010 rotation. We can get by on what we have for IF with Berkman being out for just 15 days (or less depending on retro) between Coste, Keppinger, and Maysonet. I like Maysonet and think he should get a shot going into next year for 2B competing with Matzui (even if Matzui has a bigger contract). However, if anything, I still don’t think we should preclude ourselves from being sellers if someone comes at us with unbeatable offer for Tejada or Valverde. Heck, MLB sites have the Angels going after Sherrill from Baltimore? The Angels system is stacked and we could get something very nice for Jose, who probably won’t be back next season, while not taking huge steps backwards at CL for the rest of the season. AND I still stand by my assertion that the top AL East teams will be clamoring for a big bat to add to their lineups as their playoff run tightens & Tejada would fit the bill. Again, only Randy Johnson circa-1998-type trade offers should be considered & I think there is one to be had if the Astros keep the door cracked. I’m just sayin’….
Robertpz - July 24, 2009
I agree
I think there are a couple candidates that can step into the CL role if Valverde were to be traded see Hawkins, or Arias and I would support a trade of Tejada if it netted some nice prospects.
The problem with moving those two guys is Tejada’s big contract and the fact that both would only be 2 month rentals for teams, thus the quality of players/prospects the team would receive in return wouldn’t be as high.
Timothy De Block - July 24, 2009
Selling off Tejada when the team is one game out of the division? That would be crazy. The fan base would revolt and Drayton would have to find a spot to hide. I would be so angry that I would probably give up watching this team for awhile. And I’m one of the more reasonable type fans.
Now if the team is in a tail spin on July 31, I might view it differently.
clack - July 24, 2009
Oh definatley
There would be rioting in the streets and it would be an unpopular move, but I’d support it as long as it brought in a piece for the future. Tejada is peaking right now at age 35 I don’t think he’ll sustain this high level of play.
Timothy De Block - July 24, 2009
Mark Buerhle
Is Buerhle a pitcher who beats DIPS? And does it mean anything? Baseball Prospectus has projected in the past that Buerhle would fall off a cliff. The player forecasting systems generally tend to be wrong in their predictions for him. He has a 4.21 FIP this year, vs. an actual 3.75 ERA. ZIPS projected his ERA at 4.50. His FIP seems to consistently be higher than his ERA each year.
clack - July 24, 2009
what are the Cardinals thinking?
We’ve been hearing ever since he was drafted year before last that Wallace is the best pure bat in the minor leagues, even if he may be defensively challenged. They’re going to let him go along w/ two other minor leaguers for Matt Holliday?
I’m guess Holliday will be a Type A, so if they offer him arb they get another draft pick back, but the deal still doesn’t make sense to me.
I guess they think that Holliday puts them over the top in the NL Central (and he probably does, but not for sure) and then hope to go for broke in the playoffs.
link to ESPN story on possible trade
lnewcomer - July 24, 2009
yeah, Cards may regret it if they trade Wallace for Holliday...
The Cardinals’ farm system will take a big hit if Wallace is traded. But, to me, the trade doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Cardinals, given that Holliday will be a 2 month rental in exchange for 6 or more years of Wallace. But, maybe the Cardinals have concluded that Wallace will never play 3d base adequately. If that is the case, he will be blocked by Pujols.
clack - July 24, 2009
I wouldn't regret it though!
Please bleed your system dry, St. Louis.
AstroAndy - July 24, 2009
I imagine
that the Cards think they can sign Holliday to an extension.
Only_A_Lad - July 24, 2009
I was thinking the same thing
Timothy De Block - July 24, 2009
maybe TLR thinks he can sell Holliday on the team...
however, according to one of the blogs at Vivaelbirdos, Holliday supposedly prefers to play in California…and he rejected an extension offer from the A’s before he was traded.
clack - July 24, 2009
I figured that
Holliday’s main suitor this offseason was going to be the Mets. The California thing’s interesting… Giants, maybe?
Only_A_Lad - July 24, 2009
maybe Giants or Angels….
At BBTF, someone said that the Yankees probably are already preparing a pinstripes uniform with his name too.
clack - July 24, 2009
Well, I doubt they'll be signing Damon to another contract
so I suppose there’s a place for him there.
Only_A_Lad - July 24, 2009
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