The Cards won their first game with Matt Holliday in tow last night, 8-1 over Philadelphia. The newly acquired left fielder went 4/5 in his debut and has given his club a nice pick me up after a series sweep here in Houston.
How much will this deal matter in the short and long runs? Well, in the short term it is a trade that may provide a little bit of cushion for St. Louis. All of the NL Central teams are flawed, some more than others. The Cards are on top now, but I seriously doubt that Chicago will not make a strong push for first at some point in the second half. They are the team that is able to string high OBP hitters consecutively throughout their lineup, something that will be crucial to winning games against already worn out pitching staffs. Milton Bradley and Alfonso Soriano have track records that indicate they are going to come around and perform as they have in years past. Again, both guys are locked in to big contracts that are probably over priced, but hey- we have Carlos Lee. Pitching wise, Chicago has been excellent. Power arms out the 'pen, and the emergence of Randy Wells have been pick me ups for the offensive challenged North Siders.
Yes, St. Louis made the first big move of the deadline season. Can you blame them? The troika of Chris Duncan/Dick Ankiel/Rick Stavinoha probably wasn't good enough to win even the mediocre NL Central. The previously mentioned Soriano, Milwaukee's Ryan Bruan, and our own Carlos Lee are top of the line run producers and hitters in general. St. Louis can now boast their own powerful left fielder. A return to the NL, and leaving Oakland's pitcher friendly park specifically, should improve Holliday's outlook and performance. His production has slipped in recent seasons, but a .370 wOBA isn't anything to turn your nose up to. Patience is a virtue, but Holliday has seen his aggressiveness at the plate deminish, at least in terms of overall swing percentage. His walk and strikeout rates have improved since his spectacular 2007 season, but that's about it. Taking everything into account, I think Holliday adds about 2 wins to the Cards 2009 total, whatever it ends up being.
Brett Wallace, the centerpiece of the prospect group sent to Oakland, was not a good fit in the St. Louis organization. A pear shaped third baseman is not exactly ideal, and with that Pujols character manning first base from here to eternity, Wallace was probably going to be traded at some point anyways. Like Jason Castro, Wallace was drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft and has sky rocketed to the Cards' AAA affiliate in Memphis. Just a year after using the metal bats, Wallace has developed his offensive game to the point where he seems nearly major league ready. Think of him as Kevin Youkilis-lite.
Whatever your take on the trade is, Matt Holliday makes St. Louis a better team than they were leaving Houston on Wednesday. TLR and crew may regret the move in 2010 and beyond, but for now it's a two month Holliday in St. Louis.
Oh yea: what number is Holliday on this Cards team? Well, he took the number after it had been used in the recent past by another outfielder:
That number alone makes Holliday a formidable foe. Seeing him wearing the number 15 last night reminded me that I still really, really, really hate Jim Edmonds.
0 recs | 14 comments
Can’t stand #15.
Killer Bee - July 25, 2009
That's the number that...
Jason Castro wore in college and is currently wearing at Double AA. So if Cecil Cooper is gone by next year … then we all better start liking that number.
Rhombus67 - July 25, 2009
you mentioned:
Which made me wonder what it would look like to do a position-by-position comparison between the Stros and the Cards, maybe by WAR, OPS+, or wOBA. Pujols is probably going to rank a little bit better than Berkman, and I have a feeling that Holliday and Carlos are going to come out even (until you factor in defense, probably).
I’d be interested to see how their rotations stack up, who has the better OF, the better IF. That sort of thing. I’ll concede manager.
I’d do it myself, but I’m a bit busy at the moment.
AstroAndy - July 25, 2009
Don't forget Julio Lugo
Lugo was a steal. Two hits (including a triple) last night plus a single anf stolen base his first (and only so far) at bat today (Saturday) .
Joe in Birmingham - July 25, 2009
Make that a triple and homerun yesterday
and 2 singles so far today for Lugo
Joe in Birmingham - July 25, 2009
Add a game-tying RBI Double to today's game for Lugo
Joe in Birmingham - July 25, 2009
and a triple in the ninth inning
Joe in Birmingham - July 25, 2009
this article at vivaelbirdos....
quantifies the value of the players in economic terms, and concludes that the trade is very lopsided in the favor of the A’s. The value of the prospects the Cards gave up was more than $10 million higher than the value of Holliday. The article also suggests that the Cards will have difficulty affording to re-sign Holliday, even if he is willing to stay in St. Louis. That assumes that Holliday will demand a 5 or 6 year contract at $15 – $18 million / year, which would constrain the Cards’ ability to extend Pujols’ contract during that time period.
clack - July 25, 2009
ON TV Game of the Week
the Announcers are speculating the Cardinals must sign Holliday (or some equivalent) or risk Albert Pujols leaving when he becomes a free agent (it’s hard for me to imagine Pujols playing for anyone else but it could happen),
Joe in Birmingham - July 25, 2009
if Albert Pujols were on the market, and he goes for the highest contract offered...
can you imagine how much he would cost? He will probably be considered one of the top 5 hitters in the history of the game, when all is said and done. He is worth more than A-Rod.
clack - July 25, 2009
Oops - I hit "Flag' by accident - not sure why or how
Joe in Birmingham - July 25, 2009
He'd add new meaning to the phrase "franchise" player
His contract may be worth more than some Franchises.
I’d think he’d easily get $30 million – maybe up to $40 million a YEAR for five or six years,
Meanwhile I have $85 until payday.
Joe in Birmingham - July 25, 2009
what's crazy
is that something in the 30 to 40 million range wouldn’t be overpaying him, assuming he doesn’t totally collapse over the next few years.
Only_A_Lad - July 25, 2009
it's a very high-risk high-reward gamble.
The problem is that, were the playoffs to start to day, it looks like they’d face the Dodgers in the NLDS (Rockies win the wild card, so the worst division winner faces LA; and if it’s not the Rockies, it will probably be the Giants), and that’s really tough for St. Louis.
It’s a lot to give up just for the chance to make the playoffs.
Only_A_Lad - July 25, 2009
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