In yesterday's Houston Chronicle, columnist and TCB friend Zachary Levine had a question and answer session with the Astros' president of baseball operations, Tal Smith. I know Zachary reads our blog at least from time to time, so let me say that it's really cool that those of us who love the Astros have Zachary as a resource to ask the kind of intelligent questions that we all would if given the access to the front office. So a hearty "thank you" goes out to Mr. Levine.
The Q & A gave us answers to some pretty important questions about Minor League ace Bud Norris. In conversations DQ and I have had in the past few weeks, both of us wondered about Norris' innings pitched so far this season, and whether or not the organization was going to put him on an innings limit or something similar. Norris was limited to only 80 IP last season due to injury, and has already amassed a total of 120 in 2009.
Before we delve into the answer from Tal Smith I wanted to be more specific in what I meant by "innings limit". With the rash of pitching injuries that have occurred in the past 10-15 seasons, baseball organizations are more careful than ever when utilizing their young, promising pitchers. It has gotten to the point where a hitting prospect is as valuable (or moreso) than their pitching counterpart because the chances of a hitter staying healthy and producing consistently for a number of seasons is greater than a pitcher.
That being said, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustraded has laid out this rule of thumb when discussing the limitations on young hurlers:
The unofficial industry standard is that no young pitcher should throw more than 30 more innings than he did the previous season. It's a general rule of thumb, and one I've been tracking for about a decade. When teams violate the incremental safeguard, it's amazing how often they pay for it
To build upon that theory, Verducci lists the names of pitchers that, entering the 2008 season, were potential victims of being bitten by the injury bug:
Ian Kennedy
Fausto Carmona
Ubaldo Jimenez
Tom Gorzelanny
Dustin McGowan
Chad Gaudin
Yovani Gallardo
Hmmmm...looks like he was right about a number of these players, most notably Kennedy and Carmona. The former was ineffective in 2008, while the latter was injured. Tom Gorzelanny's rate stats and ground ball ways betrayed him, and he too had a sub par 2008 season. For what it's worth: Dustin McGowan will miss the entire 2009 season, Chad Guadin has been used extensively as a reliever since 2008 (though he has ventured into the rotation for San Diego this season), Yovani Gallardo missed most of 2008 with a knee injury. The only pitcher to escape the "Verducci Effect" has been Ubaldo Jimenez, who is looking better and better as time progresses.
Fast forward a year to 2009, and three of the most prominent pitchers in baseball, Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester and Cole Hamels all seemed susceptible to being felled by this rule of sorts. Here is a mini breakdown of their careers (in some cases a season's IP total consists of both minor league and major league innings) since 2007:
| Player | 2007 IP | 2007 FIP | 2008 IP | 2008 FIP | 2009 IP | 2009 FIP |
| Tim Lincecum | 31 MiLB/146.1 MLB (177.1 total) | 1.39(AAA)/3.63 | 227 | 2.62 | 148.2 | 1.98 |
| Cole Hamels | 183.1 MLB | 3.83 | 227.1 | 3.72 | 110 | 3.92 |
| Jon Lester | 77.2 MiLB/63 MLB (140.2 total) | 3.87(AA)/3.93(AAA)/5.24 | 210.1 | 3.64 | 128.1 | 3.10 |
What can we take away from these three? Well, as a caveat, these are three of the best pitchers in baseball and it's tough to compare them to Bud Norris. Norris, while a talented player in his own right, is most likely never going to be a #1 starter for a major league club. He's good, but these guys (especially Lincecum) are outliers. From 2007 to 2008, all three of these young starters surpassed the 30 IP increase mark by a wide margin. Additionally, Hamels and Lester both had deep post season runs to add to this total. Lester pitched roughly 27 more innings in the playoffs, while pitched another 35 or so.
Tim Lincecum is a freak, and Tom Verducci knows this better than most, since he was the writer who wrote the excellent story on Tiny Tim for SI. Keeping in line with that theory, Lincecum in 2009 has been even better than in his 2008 Cy Young campaign. Jon Lester has been brilliant since the middle of May, but he got off to a very slow start in April. Finally, Cole Hamels missed time in 2007 with a left elbow strain and had a similar injury this season as well. He, more than Lester, and much more than Lincecum has seemed to be effected by the innings increases that he has seen occur during the course of his career. His numbers are down this season, but much of it is due to luck/the HR/both.
Getting back to Tal Smith, when asked by Zachary Levine about whether or not Bud Norris would be placed on an innings limit for this season, Smith responded:
They're all individual situations. It depends upon the age and the body and how long he's been pitching. Bud's been around a few years now. He's more seasoned, he's more mature, and I don't think it's a consideration there like it would be if he were in Lexington in his first year. We are trying to monitor the work load there, because it's such a transition for players in their first and second years of full years of service.
Smith elaborates on the question, and makes a few valid points about not being too conservative with pitchers, and how the magic "100 pitches limit" doesn't always make sense, it's just a round number. I question whether or not his judgments based on the Colt .45s or the minors during the 1960s are even applicable to today's game, though. Obviously something significant has occurred with young pitchers during the past 15 years that has caused them to be more injury prone than in decades past.
The factors are many, but I don't want to go off on a rabbit trail discussing them. There seems to be enough data that indicates young starters often times are not ready to take on the extra innings that Tal Smith seems to believe they are. With Norris, Bazardo, Trinidad and Felipe Paulino all on the cusp of contributing to the Astros cause in the next season, I hope the organization can synthesize all of the information at their disposal, and comes up with a competent plan to insure the health of these precious commodities. If not, the 2010 season may be a long one.
0 recs | 19 comments
Should Norris IP be limited
Hell no! Norris needs to contribute now, especially with Roy’s back hurt. Norris is no spring chicken. He does not have to be handled with kid gloves.
He either has it or he doesn’t. While I do think Dusty Baker ruined his young pitchers like Wood and Prior, that had to do with not limiting pitches thrown in a game not limiting IP.
Go Astros! Go Norris! Win now baby.
mtejadafan - July 29, 2009
Uh oh
Correct me if I read that too quickly.
HLP’s conclusion is that the Astros should be shutting Bud Norris down for the year (or maybe letting him pitch briefly in relief every so often to keep learning) . In fact, HLP copncludes Norris has already pitched more innings than is recommended.
If so, the one thing the Astros should NOT do is bring Norris up to the Astros this year, especially early in the season (say in late July or early August)), where he will probably be overworked (since he’s already been overworked)
Is that the conclusion we should reach from this article?
Joe in Birmingham - July 29, 2009
Joe:
I would lean towards the safe side- i.e. watching his IPs closely. Like Clack noted below, this is just a theory, and for all the guys I named in the article, there are probably 20 more who are fine after not listening to the Verducci rule (Jair Jurrjens, who is on one of my fantasy teams, is one of them).
I apologize for being semi-ambiguous with the conclusion.
Evan Hochschild - July 29, 2009
Anyone other than Veducci addressed this topic?
What does age have to do with it? Tal Smith says somethign like Bud Norris is not a young kid and his body would not be harmed by work ( loosely recollected) .
What woudl Nolan Ryan Say?
Did Billyball address this topic?
Joe in Birmingham - July 29, 2009
Ryan pitched early, often and for a long time. Though, he was also used as a reliever early on in his career (even earning a save in the ’69 World Series).
Elephande - July 29, 2009
Nolan Ryan isn't a good comparison point.
Ryan’s arm was a freak of nature. A medical article was written about the physical difference (as shown on an X ray) between his shoulder and the normal sholder structure.
Also, the issue here is how far you go in extending the pitcher in one season. Nolan Ryan’s approach in Texas, as I understand it, is to build up the minor league pitcher’s annual workload early in his career, so that by the time they reach Norris’ age, they have built up their arm to handle the high workload. No one knows if that approach is right or not, but it is a different from these circumstances.
clack - July 29, 2009
Yes, he should be limited.
I don’t know that Verducci’s “rule” is necessarily the absolute limit. Nobody knows what the right number might be. But there is no question in my mind that extending young pitchers too far beyond their individual historic experience level for innings pitched, during a single season, is a huge risk factor. It’s true that Norris is 25 and not 21 years old, but that is still young enough to be concerned. In addition, Norris has a recent injury history affecting his elbow which probably necessitates more conservative use. I have always felt that the Astros may have caused Troy Patton’s arm injury when they called him up and extended his innings far beyond his historic annual use.
Another factor is how he will be used. Given the circumstances of his call up, I assume that he might be used in the bullpen. Given that he has been used as a starter all season, the change in pattern could be a risk also. On the other hand, a relief role may enable the Astros to carefully control his innings pitched.
clack - July 29, 2009
two added points...
Norris’ age is 24, not 25 as stated above. And Norris’ highest innings pitched during his previous career is 96 innings at Lexington.
clack - July 29, 2009
Good points
Another factor to consider is the throwing motion of the pitcher. Lincecum does not have a big body frame, but his mechanics maximize his effectiveness while not taxing his arm (A Verducci article explains this in greater detail). I know some clubs will send their pitchers to a facility to evaluate their throwing mechanics, hopefully indicating how much stress the pitchers arm can take before injuries come into play.
Timothy De Block - July 29, 2009
Maybe you need to contact Will Carroll, DQ or HLP.
clack - July 29, 2009
DQ has tried to do this
but Carroll hasn’t responded…that was my impression. I will try to contact him via Twitter to find out more
Evan Hochschild - July 29, 2009
I did get in contact with Carrol
Carrol, who knew nothing more about Norris than his career stats that I sent him, threw out 140 IP as the threshold he would hold Norris to. He did want to stress that in order to make a proper assessment, one needs to know all the things that have already been thrown out here (mechanics, etc.). So as to what we make of Norris, who knows? I just hope that the front office is as weary as we are.
Stephen Higdon - July 29, 2009
I had been thinking that I would start to get concerned...
around 150 innings, which sounds similar to Carrol.
clack - July 29, 2009
I've found Russ Ortiz minor league stats are comparable to Bud Norris
Russ Ortiz was good in San Fran and Atlanta for a few years but eventually his workload caught up to him and his arm fell apart. This doesn’t mean that Bud Norris will follow the same path but I am a bit concerned that he is a strikeout pitcher that has control issues, and will be throwing a lot of pitches just to get through the 5th-7th innings.
In contrast Roy Oswalt in 1998 threw 86.1 innings in 1999 he threw 151.1 while that’s a big jump, Roy tends to be more efficient with his pitch counts, thus he can go more innings with less pitches. Roy Oswalt over his career has thrown 14.98 pitches per inning, Russ Ortiz 17.55 pitches per inning. Over 200 innings that’s a difference of 514 pitches. There’s a lot of variables to consider when increasing innings which is why 30 innings is an unofficial standard, some pitchers can handle the increase others cannot. I am in favor of drastically reducing innings for Norris and moving him to the bullpen.
Timothy De Block - July 29, 2009
Nothing scientific here...
But to reply to you Timmy, I think putting a guy who has been a starter into a bullpen role does a lot more harm than good. Perhaps they should limit his innings, by holding him to 5-6 per start, but the constant up and down and warming up of the bullpen takes a lot of getting used to, (if you would like for me to expand my thoughts on this I will). In my mind that is what has hampered Paulino’s development. If a pitcher is a starter in the minors and has been for a few seasons, he should stay in that role until he proves he can not handle it. If Norris is not going to be a closer or 8th inning type of pitcher, then he should be a starter. Reserve those middle relief and spot starters roles for the Ortiz’s, Moheler’s and Sampson’s type pitchers. It is a waste of a young arm, IMO.
jano4 - July 29, 2009
In the minors you can put him on a schedule out of the bullpen, the majors I agree it’s a little more random. I’m saying stick him in the bullpen and leave him there for the rest of the year, not as a spot starter or a long reliever you put him there and leave him there. Johan Santana I believe started in the bullpen, and so did Joba Chamberlin, both those guys seemed to of turned out pretty good.
What has hampered Paulino’s development is him moving from starting to bullpen to starting to bullpen to minors. That I don’t agree with nor should he be put into those situations if he’s struggling as a starter you send him back to the minors not to the bullpen.
Timothy De Block - July 29, 2009
Some more thoughts on lmiting Norris
Here is a Baseball Prospectus article on “pitcher abuse points,” which is another system for evaluating pitcher workload associated with injury. The article has some nice background on the issue too.
The article references a previous study (from book, “Diamond Apprised”) which concluded that a pitcher facing more than 30 batters per start before the age of 25 was much more likely to crash and burn. Here are Norris’ batters faced divided by starts for Lexington, Corpus, and Round Rock (so far in 09):
Lexington 19
Corpus 18.5
Round Rock 27
Obviously, Norris faced a lot more batters per start in Round Rock than his other minor league starts. His very high walk rate probably has a lot to do with that. On the other hand, he didn’t reach the 30 batters faced per start referenced above. I would say this looks like a warning flag, but not reason to shut him down; if he starts, I think the Astros should exhibit caution if he issues a lot of walks and has to throw a lot of pitches. Also, keep in mind that pitching in the majors is probably a lot more stressful than the minors, and the pitches thrown at the higher level, initially anyway, probably have a greater risk impact. (For one thing, the rookie pitcher is more likely to reach back and throw harder.)
Just to complete the comparison, Norris has thrown 50% and 25% more innings so far in Round Rock, compared to Corpus and Lexington, respectively. Norris has faced 44% and 22 % more batters in RR, compared to Corpus and Lexington.
The impact of using him as a reliever is an interesting question, as shown by the differing views in posts above. I worry about Cooper using Norris as a reliever. In the Troy Patton situation, the front office acknowledged that his innings should be limited. After a couple of starts, the front office ordered the new manager, Cooper, to remove him from the rotation and only use him in relief. Cooper used Patton in relief for several innings on short rest from his last start, and Patton had to be shutdown with a shoulder injury after that. That is my recollection anyway.
clack - July 29, 2009
for the Patton comment above,
when I say used in relief “for several inings,” I mean “mulitiple innings in one game”; I think it was two games after his previous start. Back in 07, I wrote several posts on this subject, but I’m not taking the effort to retrieve them.
clack - July 29, 2009
More Norris stats
Nice info clack…I went back and looked at Norris stats at RR, and this season he is averaging 15.36 pitches per inning. Which I am sure will increase when he gets to majors. He averages about 60% strikes, which in my mind is not a high enough ratio. If he stay at the 15.36 he probably needs to be limited to 5-6 innings per start. Has any one seen any more info on Roy’s back?
jano4 - July 29, 2009
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