The last time I did this (on month ago, today), the Astros were hot. Like hot with two t's hot. They had just marched into the All-Star break an even .500 and were right on the tails of the Cardinals and Brewers. One month later, even after their second half opening sweep of the Cardinals, the Astros have fallen apart at the seams (terrible pun intended). Injuries, injuries, and more injuries have been hampering this team just as much as bad starting pitching and management have.
Instead of being tightly in contention—as they were one month ago—the Astros find themselves here:
Seven games back of the Central leading Cardinals, with the Cubs still to be leapt over and the recently shook-up Brewers only a half game back. This is not a great place to be. However, if I recall correctly, HLP and I decided that if the Astros could just be 3 games out by the end of August, life would be good. That's not totally infeasible, but also just our subjective conclusion.
Let's see what the numbers have to say:
| Model | Odds |
| BPro Unadjusted | 1.73045% |
| BPro Schedule Adjusted | 2.44840% |
| BPro PECOTA ADJUSTED | 0.58991% |
| Cool Standings | 2.2% |
| SCS Weighted |
0.6% |
| SCS 50/50 | 5.9% |
Here's the difference a month makes:
| Model | Delta |
| BPro Unadjusted | -3.52684% |
| BPro Schedule Adjusted | -7.98437% |
| BPro PECOTA ADJUSTED | -5.48278% |
| Cool Standings | -8.8% |
| SCS Weighted |
-3.8% |
| SCS 50/50 | -11.8% |
It's apparent that the Astros have not helped their cause too much in the last month, but this time a year ago, the Astros were also facing worse odds than they are now. Is all hope lost? No. Do the Astros need to get their proverbial s#%t together? Yes. Hopefully Vitamin Puma will give us the necessary boost. If the Astros do pull it to within three games by August's end, I'll check back in on this subject to let you know if HLP's and mine subjective mark holds up to objectivity.
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It doesn't look good for the Astros
It’s down to a matter of simple counting now – it looks like 89 games will be needed to win the Central Division and perhaps 90 (but more likely 89) to win the wildcard berth. So it comes down to: what are the Astros chances of winning 89 games by season’s end? To do so they must win 34 of their remaining 49 games (.694 winning percent).
It could happen, I wish it would happen, but it’s not likely. As a simple binomial probability – optimistic because it ignores the various combinations outside of the Astros direct games – the odds are almost 100 to 1 against, using the assumption that the Astros are in reality a .550 team, which is the best percentage they’ve been able to sustain for any 4 week period this season.
But, as mentioned above, the easiest way to keep track is to start counting the losses from today forward. When that number hits 15 – it’s over. I project that will now happen sometime during the Cincinnati series at Minute Maid beginning on September 25.
bwhite2323 - August 13, 2009
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