He did it. Yes that's right, Lance Berkman ended an interminable stretch of homerlessness in what was really a really poorly pitched games. I'll just thank the baseball gods for allowing Lance Berkman to drive one out of the park again—finally—because it was negatively impacting me in a facets of baseball life (fantasy included). Even though there was some controversy surrounding the blast, with the wait lifted of his shoulders, maybe the Puma will feel compelled to make up for lost time in the next three weeks; could be fun. It, unfortunately, wasn't enough for the Astros to overcome poor pitching by perennial ace, Roy Oswalt.
Lance helped make it interesting by singling up the middle to start the bottom of the ninth. After Carlos Lee's grinding PA resulting in a free pass from Mike Gonzalez, Miguel Tejada found himself in the drivers seat again. Sadly, his game ending GIDP didn't result in the post game hysterics of last night.
Roy Oswalt struggled. Perhaps the nine runs that the Braves hung on the board didn't give that away. If that's the case, this line should help elucidate it: 2IP, 10H, 6R (6ER), 5K, 1BB. Outside of the aberrantly odd peripherals you can derive, it was clear that something just wasn't right with the Wizard. My gut tells me that it will be many months before I see the comforting image of Roy Oswalt on a mound. As sad as that is, with performances like that—and risks of seeing continual images of grimacing-Roy grabbing his back—there's just no reason to risk 2010 Roy.
Other highlights from tonight:
0 recs | 13 comments
*grumbles*
Y’know, it would’ve been nice for him to end his homerless streak last week for my team, where I lost homers by one, and ended up tying with another team in the standings for the last playoff spot…only to lose on a tiebreaker. Ah well, dynasty league. The Kershawnator!
jonthefon - September 11, 2009
Tejada
accounted for 8 of the 27 outs tonight.
Do one of the advanced stats take into account the double plays a player hits into. I know that Tejada is a good hitter, but I have to believe his value as player takes a hit because of GIDP.
Timothy De Block - September 11, 2009
Base running stats are where the GIDP tendency is taken into account. I don’t know about BP’s baserunning stat, but Bill James’ baserunning measure included GIDPs.
clack - September 11, 2009
In fairness to Tejada, it is also important whom he bats behind....
The Bill James stat is based upon GDP per GDP opportunities. That stat will not take into account the speed of the batter on 1st base for each opportunity. Probably the maximum chance of a GIDP occurs when a batter in slotted behind Carlos Lee, because Lee is so slow and rarely threatens to take out the pivot man. And last night, when Tejada had three GIDP, he was hitting behind Lee.
clack - September 11, 2009
Does the person that hits in front of him really matter?
He’s hit into double plays before when batting behind Bourn. It also seemed like he’d foul of pitches on quite a few attempts by Bourn to steal second to get out of the double play.
I’ll have to see if I can pull some numbers on that.
Timothy De Block - September 11, 2009
It has to make a difference....
The stats indicate that Carlos Lee is one of the worst players in the league, going 1st to 2d and 1st to 3d. I would think it makes a big difference if the runner is never in the picture at 2d base (Carlos usually) or the play at 2d is close (Bourn usually). Over the long haul, you should have fewer GIDP if the play is at least close at 2d.
clack - September 11, 2009
On a GIDP rate base (percentage of opportunities), Hunter Pence and Tejada are virtually the same. I’m sure that Tejada batting behind Lee and Pence batting behind Blum didn’t help…even though both players have been slotted all over the lineup at various times this year.
clack - September 11, 2009
Batting 2nd in 252 PA he’s hit into 11 GDP which is 1 DP every 23 PA
Batting 5th in 197 PA he’s hit into 9 GDP which is 1 DP every 22 PA
The stat I don’t have is the opportunities of a DP in those respective slots.
Timothy De Block - September 11, 2009
The other thing to consider is that Carlos Lee isn’t always going to be the player on ahead of Tejada batting 5th.
Timothy De Block - September 11, 2009
his highest percentage is in the no. 3 slot...
21% of the games he played in the 3 slot vs. 19% and 18% for 1st and 2d slot.
But because it doesn’t control for opportunities, I’m not sure it means much.
Looking at Pence’s GIDP by lineup spot:
3 slot 8% per game
5 slot 25% per game
6 slot 13% per game
didn’t include 2 or 7 slot, because of sparse at bats.
clack - September 11, 2009
what about Tejada's career numbers?
I’m still not convinced that Carlos Lee has a huge impact on Tejada’s GIDP, it probably does have some effect but it’s small. You can also consider that Lee was lifted for a pinch runner last night, so that right there takes Lee out of 1 of Tejada’s GDP.
Timothy De Block - September 11, 2009
I wouldn't argue that it's huge impact.
My point is that it is likely an impact. I think it is possible to mitigate GIDP numbers with the lineup construction….at least, in theory.
I just posted an article on the GIDP issue. Guys like Tejada and Pence, who are natural groundball hitters, probably will always have bad GIDP numbers.
clack - September 11, 2009
wasn't able to catch the game...
but left the gamethread open and read it this morning.
I got excited at the comeback, wished I had watched the game… and then was very glad that I didn’t. I think I’d have screamed at the GIDP to end the game.
BTastros - September 11, 2009
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