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The Crawfish Boxes

Thursday Morning Astros, etc Round Up and Triva Question

Trivia Question Answers:

Question #1: Jose Cruuuuuzzzzz

Question #2: Phil Nevin

Good guesses, all. I need to raise the difficulty of these questions, still...

In a move that is probably in his best interest, Roy Oswalt has pitched his last inning of 2009. The degenerative disk in his back is not improving, and rather than have the issue linger on into 2010 the prudent move is sit Roy for the duration of the season. Surgery, Oswalt noted, is an option, but the team is going to try to avoid it by putting Roy on a strengthening regimen involving swimming and other activities. Yorman Bazardo is tentatively the man to take Roy's slot in the rotation, and Wilton Lopez is another candidate to make a start if need be.

Speaking of injuries, Mike Hampton is the unluckiest man alive, apparently. I can't really argue.

Jerry Crasnick gives us his top nine emerging star outfielders, and guess who's number one?:

"He's been our most valuable player," Houston general manager Ed Wade said of Bourn, who is turning out to be everything the Astros hoped for when they acquired him from Philadelphia in the Brad Lidge trade.

Baseball America released it's list of the top 25 college and high school prospects heading into the 2010 draft. (Yes, I realize there is a long way to go before the draft, but come on- we just got swept by the Reds!) Worth taking note of is, the first high schooler on the list- Jameson Taillon, a pitcher for The Woodlands High School. DQ, I'm sure, is happy to read that...

TRIVIA TIMMMMEEEEEE

Ok, people. The past couple questions I've shelled out have been too "easy", apparently. Only a Lad basically mocked my question about 1970 Astros' MVP Joe Morgan. That's cool, that's cool. I'll step my game up to another level.

I like two part questions, because...well, as co-manager/writer of this here blog, I gets to do things like make up the trivia questions on Thursday. So, without further adieu:

Part One: Who is the Astros' career leader in triples?

Part Two: A former Astro was named Most Outstanding Player of the 1992 College World Series. Like the first question, the number three has significance with this player in some way.

0 recs  |  62 comments

Comments

Answers: For triples, I was going to say Metzger, but instead I’ll go with longevity and pick Jose Cruz. For 92 WS MVP, I’ll go with Phil Nevin.

Good job there. Metzger holds the single-season triples record for the Astros, which is probably why you thought of him. Cruz is career triples leader.

Phil Nevin

Geez – What a bust for the Astros. He did straighten up his act and have a decent career with the Padres I believe .

We’ve talked about this before, but the Astros’ scouting director quit in 1992 because the Astros’ selected Nevin over is recommendation of Derek Jeter. The Astros opted for the “quick fix” draft pick, getting a college guy who could get to the big leagues quicker and whose name was well known to fans. Nevin made it to the big leagues before Jeter, but Nevin was immature and showed an anger management problem. After he tore up the clubhouse, Bob Watson had seen enough and shipped him off to Detroit.

I don’t know if there is a lesson for our current Astros or not. It’s interesting that the Astros’ misjudgement in that draft had to do with player character. Scouts loved Jeter’s “make up,” which was off the charts. Sabermetric oriented fans often make fun of scouts and GMs who rely on “character” traits to judge players. However, even Jeter’s critics would admit that his character has a lot to do with his HOF-in-waiting career. The Astros executive who quit over the Nevin decision had comments about Jeter that sound a lot like the things that Heck said about this year’s first round pick, Miers.

Mier is getting a ton of priase

most believe he’ll be a top 100 prospect for next season, along with castro and lyles

From who?

MLB’s scouting report says Mier has below average speed, an average arm, a free swinger that “might” be a 10-15 homer player at the MLB level. He hit .276 in his rookie league this summer with an ops around .800 (ho hum).

I’m wondering what’s so “first round” about him. The Astros (Drayton McLamebrain in particular) ran off Drew Stubbs a couple of years ago because Stubbs wanted $900,000. Stubbs declined and was drafted by Cincy the next year and is about to be their starting center fielder. So what’s the deal? McLamebrain rejects a prospect (Stubbs) whose arm, speed, defense, and bat were all rated exceptional to outstanding, who wanted only $900,000 signing bonus. Now he signs an 18 year old for $1.4 million who is rated with below average speed, average arm and a “maybe” decent bat. No wonder they haven’t made the playoffs 4 straight years. Looks like its going to be at least 4 more before any of these high school “studs” can produce.

MLB’s scouting report is ancient in baseball scouting terms…from early February 2009, which doesn’t give you any information about most of his senior year of high school, nor does it give you any information about his first summer on the farm.

Your ho-hum OPS of “around .800” is actually a .864 OPS and is made up of a .380 OBP (which is excellent), and a .484 SLG (not too shabby). But stats are far less relevant at that level. What matters is how a guy works and how he approaches becoming a better baseball player. Those are development leagues. I just wanted to show that your version of his stats are a bit misleading.

Ben Badler from Baseball America said less than a week ago:

Castro, Lyles and Jio Mier are all top 100 candidates. I saw Tim Beckham in the Appy League last year and saw Mier there this year. Beckham had more bat speed, but Mier had a better approach at the plate, was a better defender and a faster runner than Beckham.

As a reminder, Beckham was the #1 overall pick of the Devil Rays in 2008.

The Stubbs draft situation is old news…2003…and Drayton has since shown signs of change.

As for your “wondering what’s so "first round" about him”, here are some more recent updates and evaluations of the guy:

BaseballAmerica back in July:

The top prep shortstop taken in the draft, Mier has gotten off to probably the hottest start of any of the ‘09 first rounders. The Astros dispatched him to Rookie-level Greeneville of the Appalachian League afer signing him for $1,358,000, and Mier, whose bat was his biggest question mark, has handled the transition to pro ball nicely, hitting .323/.425/.516 through 62 at-bats. His four triples are tied for the league lead, while his 13 RBIs are good for the team lead.

Baseball Prospectus in July:

The Astros’ first-round pick was supposed to be a slick-fielding shortstop who was expected to struggle a bit with the bat, but nobody told Mier. With two-hit efforts in each of the three weekend games, he’s now batting .308/.386/.538 in his first nine professional contests. With three triples and a pair of stolen bases, Mier’s speed is evident in the statistical line, and the glove is reportedly every bit as good as advertised.

And Jim Callis in July:

As for Mier, he’ll probably rank around No. 5 on our next Astros Top 10. He was the best defensive shortstop in the draft

Your writing style is nice, your content needs work.

great minds think alike, andy

There is nothing misleading about a .276 batting avg. in a rookie league where the pitching is less than stellar. Anything below .900 ops in a rookie league does not, personally, draw my interest. I really have no opinion about Mier except that there exists another view than the way overly optimistic view you and those of your disposition relate.

Badler said he was faster than Beckham. Being “faster” than “slow” doesn’t tell me much. Badler said he didn’t have Beckham’s bat speed but had a “better approach at the plate”. The bat speed comment should be a concern and the “better approach” is about as clear as mud.

The rest of your quoted Mier critics were early in the rookie season. As I said he eventually finished .276. But I agree. Rookie stats are meaningless. But that does not deny the truth that Houston should have drafted Gibson or Arnett before Mier. Houston badly needs to start building a pitching staff. Otherwise we’re going to see Hampton and Ortiz (or their equivalent) again on the mound in 2010, 2011, 2012 and maybe 2013. Mier doesn’t fill the need. The other 18 year old college drop outs they signed are at least 6 years away. Houston has missed the playoffs 4 straight years. I, for one, have no intention of buying yet another box seat until management shows a committment to winning on the field instead of winning on the income statement.

Batting average alone, no matter the level, is not exactly the best measure of a player’s offensive ability. The other rate stats are better, but below AA, statistical output generally isn’t a good indicator of how good the prospect is.

Setting a .900 OPS as one’s low-water mark is pretty harsh. Jeter didn’t get above .900 OPS until AA. His 18-year old season in the rookie league, he OPS’d .611.

I understand the desire to take college-level pitching early in the draft in the hopes that they help the big club sooner, especially when the big club badly needs consistent pitching. But very few ballclubs draft for need. Most of them take “best player available”. Plenty of honest debate could be had about who the best player available is at any given spot. That’s a lot of the fun of the draft, right? But I don’t think many people had Arnett higher on their boards than Mier. As for Gibson, the injury scared off a lot of teams.

As for building up pitching in our system, we’ve got a pretty good little corps that just finished up the year in Lexington.

You say “Mier doesn’t fill the need.” But the system is threadbare in more than just the pitching department, and middle infield was no exception. The 2009 draft looks like it might have gotten some decent middle infield prospects into the system finally. Quality defense up the middle helps every pitcher.

as for Drew Stubbs...

According to Richard Justice, the Astros had a deal in place for him. But Bud Selig intervened and persuaded McLane to withdraw the offer because it was far over slot (he was a lower round pick who was committed t UT). At the time, McLane and a lot of other owners were trying to follow Selig’s slotting system for the draft. Since that time, more and more teams have ignored Selig’s draft guidelines, which means that it will probably become meaningless at some point.

Can't blame them

since it’s just going to force them to spend more money in the future… much like higher and higher priced free agents.

Stubbs had agreed to "below" slot money

The amount of money Stubbs agreed to with Houston’s scouts was “below” the slot money at that time. Houston’s scouts were estatic about the possibility of signing him for so little. Why would Selig step in if Houston’s scouts were more than happy with the money involved. I think Justice source of information about Selig being the culprit is a bit suspect at best. According to my sources Houston offered approximately $900,000. Stubbs accepted that amount. When in came time to sign the contract, the amount was all of a sudden $500,000. Stubbs declined, played another year for UT and was signed by Cincy the following year. If you know another story please let me know. Justice relies on the Astro organization for all of his Astros data. He has a vested interest in not relating too much controversial information.

all I know on it is from Justice's columns....

which appeared a long time ago. He could be wrong. However, I don’t think the Astros and McLane were happy with his account; so I don’t think he was stating an “official” Astros line. It is possible that he was getting information from people within the Astros’ organization who disagreed…again, I’m speculating. Justice said the offer was above slot, and Selig complained to Drayton.

here is a column in which Justice recounts the story of Stubbs.

Link here (look midway or so through the column).

Some excerpts:

[reader question]Can you explain what happened with the Drew Stubbs deal. I know the deal was nixed by Bud but not sure why or how that was done.
You’ve come to the right place. I am the foremost authority on that topic. And the Astros are appreciative everytime I explain it again.

“Please don’t mention Drew Stubbs to me,” a club source said. “I get sick thinking about the way we handled that.”

They handled it badly.

Before the draft, Stubbs and his dad, Rick, told any interested team their asking price was $900,000. Otherwise, Drew was headed to Texas.

In other words, he wanted second-round money no matter where he went in the draft. The Astros discussed the matter internally and agreed it was a good deal.

The deal fell apart when a representative of commissioner Bud Selig’s office telephoned McLane and told him the price for Stubbs was too high.

In baseball’s new economic world, the commissioner’s office essentially sets the prices teams can pay draft picks. Some teams such as the Yankees, Dodgers and Angels ignore the guidelines.

What’s strange is that the Astros also ignore them. In 2003, they used the 389th pick on Jimmy Barthmaier, a high school pitcher from Georgia. He was taken in the 13th round but got second-round money ($750,000).

Selig’s office ignored Barthmaier’s deal, but when the Astros wanted to sign Stubbs for second-round money, the phone call came. Stubbs, McLane was told, should be paid $450,000.

“I think Drayton panicked,” a club source said. “He didn’t want the commissioner mad at him. Barthmaier was such a low pick, it kind of flew under the radar. Stubbs was a third-round pick getting second-round money, and I guess they noticed.”

Never heard that about Jeter. Is that really true? If so I hate myself.
well since you asked....

Wikipedia entry for Phil Nevin:

Nevin was selected as the first pick of the 1992 Major League Baseball Draft by the Astros. Derek Jeter was selected sixth in the draft; Hal Newhouser, a scout for Houston at the time, quit the franchise over the decision not to pick Jeter.

A Buster Olney book review about the Yankees has a discussion of the 71 year old Newhouse, who was the AL MVP in 1944 and 1945, and told the Astros that whomever drafted Derek Jeter would play in numerous World Series games. Some excerpts:

Newhouser was taken by the aura that emanated from the teenager, and strongly lobbied the Astros to draft Jeter. There were initially concerns that Jeter — who had been promised a scholarship at the University of Michigan — would hold out for a signing bonus of $1 million or more, a large sum at that time. “No one is worth $1 million,” Newhouser told his supervisor. “But if one kid is worth that, it’s this kid.”

Shortly before the draft, O’Brien talked to Newhouser and explained that the Astros would pass on Jeter and take Phil Nevin, a good offensive prospect from Cal State Fullerton; Nevin had agreed to a $700,000 signing bonus. “It’s an organizational decision,” O’Brien told Newhouser. … Newhouser was devastated. If he couldn’t convince the Astros to take Jeter, he figured, then he could never convince them of anything. The former player who had happily driven hours and sat through cold weather to see baseball quit his job and left the game he loved for good.

O’Brien, mentioned above, is Dan O’Brien who would later leave the Astros to become the Reds’ GM. I think he was Asst. GM for the Astros.

I want to cry
meh

on the grand scheme of silly things the Astros have done (even in the early ‘90s) that’s minor.

Besides, I like hating that smug bastard too much.

And imagine Jeter having to play 81 games on Astroturf.

Ground balls don’t transfer as much energy to Astroturf as they do grass. His horrible range issues would only be compounded in an environment like that.

I hate that the Astros traded away Kenny Lofton, or that they didn’t give Curt Schilling a shot in the rotation (to be fair, he had the prima dona complex even as a young reliever), or that they didn’t protect Bobby Abreu, but the Jeter thing never really bothered me.

When we had that article a couple of years ago asking what would the Astros have been like if Jeter had been drafted by them, I suggested that the Astros might have ended up putting him in CF, where he would have been a HOF worthy CFer, too. The reason I said that is because it seems like the Astros had a tendency to pigeonhole fast, athletic young hitters into the CF position, perhaps to speed up their advance through the minors.

Newhouser would have been unhappy, though, if the Astros would have made him a CFer, though. Newhouser said that Jeter had the best hands he had seen in 50 years of scouting. Hmmm…how about Jeter as a 2d baseman. Biggio might have been converted to CF instead of 2d base (the Astros considered making his a CFer when they decided he should convert from catcher), and he would have been a plus-plus CFer when he still had speed. Oh, well…speculation….

Career triples has to be Cesar Cedeno. As for the 92 WS MVP Phil Nevin sounds right.
Hampton...

Thinking about the Neyer column on Hampton….

realistically we got as much as we could expect out of Mike Hampton. If you had asked how many innings we would get out of Mike when the season started (we may have had a poll, for all I can remember), I would have guessed 100-120. We got 112 innings. Neyer talks about how bad Hampton’s 5+ ERA was, but I think that is deceptive. I think most of us would have taken his 4.59 FIP before the season started. Unfortunately, Mike Hampton’s groundball ways made him take his lumps after the Astros infield defense declined dramatically last year.

Drayton might learn something from the Rockets

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/6622733.html

Turns out, if you put a good team out there, people want to see them play.

An in-law works part-time in Astros group sales

When Astros win,bBusiness is good; much tougher when they lose

Oh, and the 2010 schedule was apparently released

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb/6620554.html
Opening day is at home against the Giants. Interleague is against the AL East again.

Okay, after all this talk about signing pitching staff

We’re pretty well-set on pitching compared to infield prospects. Norris, Paulino, Lyles, and Seaton all have a good chance of being solid starting pitchers, and a few other names jump out as well. Wandy will likely be here and reliable for at least three or four more years.

I don’t know about Mier specifically, but I do know we hardly have ANY decent infield prospects. We need to be focusing heavily on all four positions with an eye toward both offense and defense.

One guy you might keep your eye on is 2B Jose Altuve. He’s 19 and just split his season between Greeneville and Tri-City. Eyewitness reports from folks up in Greeneville say that he’s really small, but very quick, giving him great range on defense. He’s had a good eye at the plate, too…only 26 strikeouts in 295 plate appearances this season. He managed 34 walks as well.

Seeing his transition from Greeneville to Tri-City makes me think he’ll have a slow climb up the organizational ladder, but his plate discipline is encouraging.

Could definitely use more speed.

Sounds like a guy who won’t be ready for a few more years though.

i hadn’t noticed his splits between Greenville and Tri-City, cause the last i looked he was doing fine up there. The sample size at Tri-City is small but still indicative of struggling some. The worrisome part is it could just be regressing back to his mean, he wasn’t impressive last year then all of a sudden burst on the scene then back after his promotion. I like his discipline at the plate and stolen bases totals. I dont’ really care that he’s small, that usually gives people like that a little something extra for motivation.

if he is only 19 years old, it’s hard to even use the term “regression to mean.” He, and all of his peers are evolving and developing, rather than moving toward an established level. We just have to be patient and see how they develop.

regression to mean is probably not the correct term, your right, i meant more along the lines of playing at his actual level and that his success was more of an abberition and not indicative of his development. I hope otherwise cause i like the fact that he’s small, i like guys that go against the protypical mold of a baseball player or any athlete, who can honestly say they hate doug flutie or mugsy bouges.

One thing that the baseball reference and fangraph stat pages don’t show is that after his 2008 season at Greeneville and before his 2009 “breakout” in Greeneville, he went and played in the Astros’ Venezuelan Winter League. That’s where he first showed signs of improving.

<a href="http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ligaparalela.com.ve%2F%3Fejecutar%3Dequipo_stats%26id_equipo%3D10&sl=es&tl=en&history_state0=" >In his time there, he batted .341/.441/.480 over 142 plate appearances. He K’ed only 15 times, and walked 19 times. He also stole 9 bases for a 75% stolen base percentage. He had 8 doubles and 3 triples.

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