Darren McCollester - Getty Images
BOSTON, MA - SEPTEMBER 03: Jed Lowrie #12 of the Boston Red Sox runs to first base against the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park on September 3, 2011. . (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)
When the
Astros traded for Jed Lowrie, the team acquired a switch hitting shortstop. One of the knocks on Lowrie's offense is that he has been much better against lefthanders than righthand pitchers in the majors. Lowrie's major league career
platoon splits---lopsided in favor of hitting from the righthand side of the plate against LHPs---show the reason for this criticism.
Jed Lowrie
addressed this issue when he was interviewed after the trade. Lowrie said that he is a quality hitter from both sides of the plate, and that his offense batting lefthanded had been hurt by injuries. Lowrie said that he has a history in the minors and, particularly, in college of production from that side. In a comment on a TCB thread at the time, I mentioned the difficulty of evaluatng this statement without a data source for minor league splits.
I recently discovered that drivelinebaseball.com has minor league platoon split data. The web site is a repository for some of the minor league platoon data from the old minorleaguesplits.com web site. At this point, the data does not include 2011 splits. With access to
Jed Lowrie's minor league platoon splits, we can consider Lowrie's assertion that his minor league performance shows an ability to hit from both sides of the plate.
Looking at both Lowrie's minor league splits and his injury history, I see some support for Lowrie's position. The existing major league platoon split may not disappear in the future, but it's reasonable to conclude that the magnitude of the poor split batting from the lefthand side isn't representative.
I had some difficulties using the minor league split data because, without the ability to download or paste the data, summation of the data can be time consuming. To make my task more manageable, I focused on batting average, OPS, and calculated K/BB ratio for comparing splits.
Because Lowrie's AAA performance is closest to the big leagues, I examined his AAA splits for the period 2007-2009. I excluded 2010 and 2011 data for several reasons: (1) 2011 split data is unavailable; (2) the samples are very small (5 games or less in both years); and (3) these appear to be rehab appearances.
Lowrie's AAA platoon splits in 485 plate appearances are shown below.
International League 2007 - 2009
(BA/OPS/K:BB)
VS. LHP .260 / .787 / 1.48
VS. RHP .264 / .804/ 1.99
The interesting point here is that, in contrast to Lowrie's MLB platoon splits, he was a better offensive player from the left side of the plate (versus RHP) during his AAA career. His plate discipline was better against lefthanded pitchers, but otherwise he was a better hitter against RHP.
Lowrie's break out season was 2007, when he was named the MVP of the
Red Sox AA team (Portland). Lowrie's AA splits are shown below.
Portland 2007
(BA/OPS/K:BB)
VS. LHP .353 / .993 / 3.14
VS. RHP .273 / .896 / 0.64
Unlike AAA, Lowrie's AA performance showed substantial platoon splits in favor of batting against LHP. However, Lowrie's offense against RHP was pretty good too. At this level, Lowrie showed much better plate discipline batting from the left hand side, driven mostly by an excellent 19% walk rate against RHP. However, he exhibited more power against LHP, with more than one-third of his hits against lefties going for extra bases.
The remainder of Lowrie's minor league career consists of short season NY-Penn league and one season of A+ ball. For both of these levels, Lowrie showed a platoon advantage in favor of batting lefthanded against RHP for batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS.
Lowrie is generally correct when he says that he was productive from both sides of the plate in the minors.
I don't have Lowrie's platoon splits as Stanford, but
this article at Beyond the Boxscore in 2007, about a year and a half after he was drafted, said:" He [Lowrie] also has no perceivable platoon split, which is nice for a switch hitter."
How about the claim that injuries account for his poor platoon splits at the major league level? Lowrie had three injuries: broken left wrist, mononucleosis, and a strained left shoulder. Of those injuries, the wrist and shoulder injuries seem more likely to affect platoon splits. Lowrie broke his wrist on a collision at 2d base in 2008. The injury had not healed well in 2009, and he had surgery on his wrist in 2009. The shoulder injury occurred in a collision with an outfielder in 2011. Lowrie's worst platoon split at the ML level against RHPs occurred in 2009 (.391 OPS) and 2011 (.582).
Some other analyses agree that Lowrie's injuries caused his hitting problems against RHP:
All was going well, but then, on May 16 [2008], Jed Lowrie fractured his left wrist in a collision at second base while playing for Pawtucket. When he returned to the majors, his numbers against right-handed pitchers just weren't the same. By the time the playoffs came around, he just wasn't the same from the left side of the plate. ---Over the
Monster
For one, a nagging left shoulder injury might be to blame for Lowrie’s uncharacteristic platoon splits. For instance, Lowrie’s 2011 splits showed an .876/.582 split (versus RHP/LHP), which are well below his career marks of .919/.635. Given that Lowrie’s seen fewer than 1,000 plate appearances, spread over four big-league seasons, I think it’s somewhat reasonable to file the huge splits under the statistical-noise header. After all, despite these drastic splits in the major leagues, Lowrie’s
minor-league splits aren’t nearly as discrepant. Perhaps with regular playing time, Lowrie’s numbers might have an opportunity to even out. ---
Fangraphs
Assuming that Lowrie is no longer affected by his wrist and shoulder ailments, I am reasonably optimistic that Jed Lowrie can improve his major league platoon splits with the Astros. That's not to say that his major league splits will be the same as his minor league splits: ML pitchers may be able to exploit platoon weaknesses better than minor league pitchers. But it's not hard to believe that Lowrie's injuries contributed to his gaping platoon split so far in the majors.
I guess I never payed attention or researched it enough, but seeing that both of those injuries happened to his left wrist and his left shoulder, I could see how it could affect his hitting from the left side of the plate.
Nice find on the minor league splits, that is useful info. I agree with you that since those injuries are behind him I am also optimistic that he can still be productive from the left side.
I noticed in his interviews that he is very confident in his ability to hit from the left side. He sounded like he was hungry to show that he can hit from the left side.
conroestro - January 10, 2012 via mobile
Don't know why you had problems copy/pasting...I just selected it, put it in notepad and pasted it into excel
Entire Minor League Splits:
vs LHP: 473 PA, .280/.359/.451
vs RHP: 1136 PA, .285/.394/.445
That’s reassuring, for sure. My only lingering concern is that his injuries have affected his swing from the left side of the plate, and whether healed or not, he either subconsciously favors those previously injured areas to protect them, or he developed bad habits while recovering.
His AA Portland stats are a little damning too, as that was his first exposure to more advanced pitching, and he didn’t handle righties very well at all. 273/414/482. Other than that great OBP, those average and power numbers are nothing to be happy about, considering that it’s only AA.
I think we’ll just have to wait and see.
CRPerry13 - January 10, 2012
That’s also double the at bats and then some from the left side, so that is reassuring.
Wrist injuries seem like something that takes longer than would be expected to recover from. This is also why I’m hopeful Schafer will be better this year.
conroestro - January 10, 2012 via mobile
Yes me too.
CRPerry13 - January 10, 2012
When I tried to paste it to excel, I just got a big black mark and an indication that I was pasting a picture. I just assumed that the numbers were not accessible as values. I just used /C to try paste. Maybe I should consider other ways of doing it.
As for the Portland splits, I’m not that bothered by it. He was 23 years old, which is age appropriate for AA. His RHP hitting stats in AA look pretty good to me for a shortstop. If he hit the same way from the other side, he would look like a pretty good prospect. (Jonathon Villar in AA: .231, .301, .386—-hopefully due to his young age.) But the great numbers vs. LHP in AA are what raised his status to one of the best prospects in the majors at the time.
clack - January 10, 2012
Right, I agree. I’m just saying it’s possible his showing at AA were a precursor of his true ability, though hopefully not.
To copy/paste: start with the first cell value (not outside the table), and highlight down to the last cell value. Copy and paste the data into notepad. (if you paste it directly into excel, it will try to put all data in one cell). Then copy/paste the data from notepad to excel and it will import correctly. Voila!
CRPerry13 - January 10, 2012
Thanks for the tip.
clack - January 10, 2012
Are you being sarcastic? A .273 average and a .482 slugging percentage are both pretty great for a AA ss. And the great OBP shouldn’t be glossed over.
Brad E - January 10, 2012 via mobile
I agree. He should be pretty fun to watch this season provided that he can stay on the field.
conroestro - January 10, 2012 via mobile
No, those aren’t particularly impressive for Double-A. Translate those statsitics to the majors, and you’re looking at like a .240 average with a .380 slugging percentage.
CRPerry13 - January 10, 2012
Shortstop though.
Plus that’s only from the left side. His right side would raise that where it would still be respectable numbers overall.
conroestro - January 10, 2012 via mobile
Yes, those numbers are pretty impressive. You are using MLE on a guys first taste of AA. I think MLE is pretty useless, but even using those numbers, 240 & 380 would be pretty impressive for a hit going from A+ to MLB. But, that’s irrelevant. If you look at the top short stop prospects in AA any year, their slash lines from their dominant side (vs RHP or vs LHP) is usually much less than Lowrie’s weak side in his first year in Portland. I’m not arguing that Jed is or isn’t weak against RHP, I’m just saying a 270/400/480 slash line for a SS isn’t a bad sign in AA. It’s actually a good sign.
Brad E - January 10, 2012 via mobile
I love the OBP, but the BA doesn’t impress me for AA. On the other hand, if he can take that many walks he doesn’t need to take many hacks. I’m not impressed, but that doesn’t mean I think he’ll be bad from that side of the plate.
CRPerry13 - January 10, 2012
j. lowrie
shortstop was in question 3 or 4 wks ago…looks like we got two possibles recently…the rule 5 from cubs…and lowrie… catcher is a question. Can jason c produce? quintero is good but is a backup. after that it is slim pickings…unless we have good prospect in the minors? otherwise, i think we are better that some think we are….need to be cautious in trading… make sure we get value for value…i think we could develop a starting team in spring and come out smoking… look, nl central..is questionable..cubs are in disarray…milwaukee is without fielder and braun…cards lost big gun and are old…pirates are not competitive…that leaves the reds… and they do look good…but their closer is gone…astros are looking good…as good as the competition…mike h
Mike HJALM - January 10, 2012
Good write up
I’m optimistic about him (duh…tell us something we don’t know)
Its Gonna Happen - January 10, 2012 via mobile
I would like the scoop on Weiland as well. Do you guys think he can crack the rotation? Can he be good? I guess he will be up against Harrell and Sosa if the Astros are able to trade someone.
Brad E - January 10, 2012 via mobile
Seconded
I’m curious on what everybody thinks of him after an in depth sort of look
Its Gonna Happen - January 11, 2012 via mobile
If I get some time, I may do that.
clack - January 11, 2012
I thought about it, but gathering useful data on guys who really haven’t played much in the majors and trying to project how they’ll do is a crapshoot sometimes. I’d be more interested in immediate info on Weiland if it looked like he’d def be in the rotation next season.
CRPerry13 - January 11, 2012
If not, at least OKC should get a good boost of talent
Its Gonna Happen - January 11, 2012 via mobile
In Regards to Kyle Weiland
I was searching the internet today, and found this link from Alex Speier that does a good job of detailing Weiland’s path to the majors. It also gives a decent scouting report on him, and how his performance managed to force Red Sox personnel to view him as a starter.
Good Stuff.
conroestro - January 12, 2012
that is a good article. I had started collecting a few articles and scouting reports on Weiland, but I hadn’t run across that column. the comparison to Justin Masterson is intriguing. Weiland’s success may depend on how good the infield is at catching the grounders.
clack - January 12, 2012
It seems like he’s exceeded expectations at every level.
conroestro - January 12, 2012 via mobile
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