Bob Levey - Getty Images
8 months ago: HOUSTON - SEPTEMBER 27: Pitcher Henry Sosa #65 of the Houston Astros throws against the St. Louis Cardinals at Minute Maid Park on September 27, 2011 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
The starting rotation was less of a sure thing this offseason as trade rumors surrounded both Myers and Wandy in the early going. Since the winter meetings there has been less and less trade chatter involving both players, and it is starting to look more and more likely that both will be Astros to start next season. Assuming this is the case Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris, and J.A. Happ look to once again anchor the first four spots. That would leave rotation hopefuls Jordan Lyles, Aneury Rodriguez, Henry Sosa, Kyle Weiland, and Lucas Harrell to compete for one spot in spring training. Below is a brief look at the five candidates for the 5th spot in the rotation.
By now most of you TCB faithful know enough about the former Astros top prospect so I won’t spend too much time on him here. What Lyles doesn’t possess in pure stuff he makes up for with a solid mound presence, and decent control of his complete repertoire. While his overall 2011 stat line was disappointing he proved that he has what it takes to pitch in the majors though the amount of success he experiences is still too be determined. As David pointed out here, Lyles did display good command and limited walks, but his control was sometimes lacking as he would miss in the zone and was thus hittable last year.
The rule 5 pick didn’t log the innings that the rest of the group did due to the fact that he had to spend the entire year on the major league roster and split time between the rotation and the bullpen. As a starter Aneury threw 40.1 innings and posted a 5.11 FIP. Rodriguez fit the description of a two-pitch pitcher in 2011 throwing his fastball/slider combination 93.2% of the time. One particular area that Aneury struggled in this past season was retiring left-handed hitters.
When Facing Lefties = 6.19 FIP, .265 batting average against, 22 walks, 143 batters faced
When Facing Righties = 3.85 FIP, .238 batting average against, 10 walks, 226 batters faced
However, with a hat tip to Clack for finding minor league splits at drivelinebaseball.com, Aneury’s righty/lefty splits were not as drastic in the minors. Whether this is a sample size issue and will regress in time or remain an issue due to the fact that he was facing better hitters in the majors is hard to tell.
It’s also worth noting that Aneury had a successful showing in the Dominican Winter League this offseason throwing 32.2 innings, and posting a 2.48 ERA with 32 strikeouts and 5 walks.
Sosa was more drastic of a two-pitch pitcher in 2011 than Rodriguez was, throwing his fastball/slider combination 97.3% of the time. Sosa had plenty of life on his fastball that averaged 93.1 MPH, and generated plenty of movement on the pitch throwing it from the low ¾ arm slot. In his 53.1 innings with the Astros Sosa posted a 4.77 FIP. Also like Rodriguez, Sosa struggled with left-handed hitters, but unlike Rodriguez this trend was evident in the minors as well.
When Facing Lefties = 6.24 FIP, .293 batting average against, 12 walks, 89 batters faced
When Facing Righties = .396 FIP, .246 batting average against, 11 walks, 142 batters faced
Sosa also pitched in the Dominican Winter League but did not fare as well throwing 26 innings, and posting a 6.23 ERA with 18 strikeouts and 7 walks.
Acquired in the Melancon trade from the Red Sox Weiland also represents another rotation option for Brad Mills. Weiland pitched as a closer in college, but was moved to the rotation in the Red Sox system. Weiland has found success at every level as a starter, and with his four-pitch repertoire he has a chance to stick as a back-end rotation type innings eater in the majors. He struggled in his cup of coffee with the Red Sox last season posting a 7.66 ERA with a 4.74 K/9 and a 4.38 BB/9, in his 24.2 innings pitched with the club.
Lucas Harrell had a solid 2011 season though most of that season was spent at the AAA level for the White Sox and Astros. Harrell has not been much of a strikeout pitcher at any level in the minors, but he has been good at inducing grounders. According to FirstInning.com Harrell has never posted a groundball rate lower than 52% at any level. Harrell is also a four-pitch pitcher with a good low nineties fastball with movement. He didn’t see much time in the majors last season, making just nine appearances (2 starts), and pitched a total of 18 innings posting a 4.50 ERA.
The charts below are a look at the stats of each pitcher’s 2011 season across all levels, their 2011 innings distribution, and their minor league career averages:
| Pitcher | Level | IP | SO/9 | BB/9 | H/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Lyles | AAA/Astros | 156.1 | 6.28 | 2.48 | 9.86 | 4.67 |
| Aneury Rodriguez | Astros | 85.1 | 6.75 | 3.38 | 8.8 | 5.27 |
| Henry Sosa | AA/AAA/Astros | 142.2 | 7.28 | 3.48 | 9.81 | 4.81 |
| Kyle Weiland | AAA/Red Sox | 153 | 8.18 | 3.94 | 8.06 | 4.23 |
| Lucas Harrell | AAA/White Sox/Astros | 144.2 | 6.8 | 3.62 | 8.18 | 2.81 |
Harrell and Weiland had the best season’s last year, but also spent the least amount of time in the majors. Below is a look at the innings distribution (major league level vs. minor league level) for each pitcher.
| Pitcher | IP | SO/9 | BB/9 | H/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Lyles | 421 | 8.9 | 2.5 | 9,2 | 3.55 |
| Aneury Rodriguez | 712 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 9.1 | 4.56 |
| Henry Sosa | 492.1 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 3.53 |
| Kyle Weiland | 449.1 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 7.5 | 3.51 |
| Lucas Harrell | 761.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 8.4 | 3.65 |
Each of these players has a solid minor league track record. Of the group Aneury Rodriguez is the only pitcher to post an ERA above 4.00, Lucas Harrell is the only pitcher who has a sub-par strikeout per nine innings rate, and Henry Sosa and Lucas Harrell have a significantly higher than average career walk rate per nine innings. Lyles has the best strikeout rate, but he also did a lot of his damage at the lower levels.
The Astros have no shortage of options to fill the 5th spot in their rotation assuming no additional players are acquired. While it’s a good possibility that all of these guys will see some time with the Astros at some point this season it will be interesting to see who breaks camp in the rotation. Lyles, Weiland, and Harrell seem like better fits as starters since they have more of a starter’s repertoire, but both Rodriguez and Sosa could make a case for themselves with a strong spring training.
0 recs | 90 comments
Good article.
Some thoughts:
Poor LHB splits are to be expected from a RHP with only 2 pitches. Sosa and Aneury Rod need to develop/use a third pitch which is tough on LHBs. A cutter that breaks in on LHBs is the best candidate, and hopefully would lead to broken bats and weak contact against LHBs.
Is Sosa poorly suited to be a reliever? Some guys just don’t pitch well in relief. That looked like the case for Sosa in the minors last year….or was that just a sample size artifact? With his velocity, FB/slider combo, and poor splits, Sosa otherwise would look like a relief pitcher.
I have a nagging feeling that Lyles’ development was poorly handled by the Astros last year. He probably shouldn’t have been called up to the majors. Then the stint as a reliever was a bad idea. I just hope that the Astros haven’t squandered the development of their best pitching prospect. I am concerned that sending Lyles back to AAA would hurt his confidence, and further add to the developmental mistakes. If we could go back in time and keep him in AAA for a full year last season, I think that the Astros would be in better shape. But at this point, the Astros may have no choice but to continue trying to develop Lyles at the major league level.
clack - January 13, 2012
I kind of agree about Lyles
I don’t think it was as egregious a mishandling as some I’ve seen (the Mets are notorious for doing much worse), but I do think he could have benefited from staying at AAA until September callups.
OremLK - January 13, 2012
That makes sense as far as the 2-pitch pitchers go. They need another weapon to assist in keeping lefties honest. Bud Norris seems to use his changeup a lot more against left-handed hitters. Also when I looked at the splits for all the pitchers I noticed that Weiland, Lyles, and Harrell didn’t have noticeable splits, and all have four pitches so that kind of validated the point.
That makes sense about developing the cutter as a weapon against lefties. Weiland started using his cutter last year, and did a good job of neutralizing lefties.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
Doug Brocail was trying to make Lyles pitch from a higher arm slot during his time as a reliever in September. I can’t help but think that messing with a pitcher’s delivery could sometimes be more bad than good if a pitcher can’t find his groove with the new delivery and somehow forgets how to go back to his old delivery. Not sure if this is true, but it’s something to investigate.
BustaPozee - January 13, 2012
I wasn’t aware of that. Everyone has pretty much praised Lyles clean and effortless delivery, so I will have to assume that’s a bad thing.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
Not necessarily. Adjusting the arm slot to be higher could allow him to get more sink on his pitches as opposed to side to side movement which could allow him to limit some homeruns and induce more groundballs.
However, it could be damaging if he focuses too much on it and it messes him up as Busta pointed out. Although, adjusting the arm slot isn’t a huge change in delivery.
Subber10 - January 13, 2012
I guess it would be wise for him to listen to suggestions of his coaches and see what works for him also.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
The last appearance Lyles made I believe was the first or second time he tried out his new delivery, but he ended up walking 3 batters and only got one out. He only threw 3 strikes out of 17 pitches.
BustaPozee - January 13, 2012
Weiland
Based on the quotes from the front office, I get the impression that they like Weiland. I think he will be given his chances in spring training to be come the 5th starter. I plan on writing something more in depth on Weiland in the future.
clack - January 13, 2012
I would almost rather they put him in the bullpen
Almost everyone I’ve talked to seems to think his stuff would play better as a relief pitcher, and he may even have the ceiling of what Mark Melancon gave us last year. Generally speaking I’m a proponent of giving guys a chance in the rotation, as a SP is invariably more valuable than a RP.
However, we have too many back of the rotation guys right now and not enough slots to let them pitch—and I think we have guys with a bit higher ceilings than Weiland, as well. That could change if we trade Wandy and/or Myers and one or more spots open up in the rotation.
OremLK - January 13, 2012
There is definitely no lack of back-end starting depth in the system. Almost everything I’ve read to has said that Weiland will most likely end up back in the bullpen. However given the Astros position it doesn’t hurt to continue to try him as a starter. He has been better than expected at every level as a starter. It couldn’t hurt to give him a decent look to see what he can do in the role before he’s moved to the bullpen.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
Yeah, I mean I'll give Luhnow the benefit of the doubt
If that’s what he wants to do.
OremLK - January 13, 2012
Can’t wait to read your work on Weiland. I’m curious about him because I also noticed that the FO seems to be high on him. People talk about him like he is a Lucas Harrell type prospect, but I think he is a higher regarded prospect than that.
Brad E - January 13, 2012 via mobile
As for me
I voted for Lyles figuring he was almost a no-brainer to make it into the rotation since he held is own last year and was our top prospect (mediocrity in the majors from a 20-year old is holding your own in my opinion).
After Lyles, I would like to see Lucas Harrell get a shot at the rotation, perhaps even over Happ.
OremLK - January 13, 2012
I agree, Lyles definitely performed well given it wasto his first taste of the majors. I didn’t think a whole lot about what Clack said above, but Lyles confidence would definitely be a valid concern. If he came out in spring and had any type of success then it would seem like he would need to get the nod otherwise you would be sending the wrong message to the young kid. He doesn’t look to be the type with a fragile ego, but it would be a tough demotion for anyone to handle at his age given that he did pitch pretty well last year considering.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
I like Harrell also. I wished he would have been given more of a chance last year. He has been really good at inducing grounders throughout his career. His stuff looked pretty good in hos brief time with the Astros as well. Everything was moving.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
From what I can tell, Weiland and Harrell seem like similar pitchers. Both have a lot of movement on their pitches and are groundballers, with Harrell getting a higher GB rate and Weiland getting more Ks.
clack - January 13, 2012
Voted Weiland
Though I don’t have a strong opinion. I don’t see the Astros fortunes being affected much by this decision.
CRPerry13 - January 13, 2012
That would put Lyles in OKC though, assuming Wandy or Brett aren’t moved. He could benefit from working on his curve and other things in the minors, but since the Astros started him in the majors do you think they should stick with him.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
I’m ok with putting Lyles in OKC. I’m sure he’s smart enough to know that he’s only 21, he didn’t pitch well last year, and he has minor league options, so it’s all business. If he’s really smart, he’ll recognize that AAA will be a good place to work on the things that gave him trouble last season in the majors. Hopefully he’ll realize that he’s a big part of the Astros’ future, so they want to give him a chance to improve as much as he can in conditions where there’s not the huge emphasis on winning at all costs.
CRPerry13 - January 13, 2012
I voted Weiland too, but I don’t have a strong feeling about it. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is an opening in the rotation beyond the No. 5 spot. Besides the possibility of trades, if either Happ or Lyles pitch poorly in the spring, I could see either starting out in AAA.
clack - January 13, 2012
Does Happ have options remaining, or is he out of options.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
That’s a good question, and it obviously makes a difference on what happens. I don’t know the answer, and it’s difficult to figure out because Happ has been injured so much in his career. Injury rehab stints int he minors do not count as using an option. Looking at his minor/major league lines by year, I am guessing that he has an option left. But I could easily be wrong. I am not even sure if he spent 20 days in the minors in 2011 (which is necessary to use an option). An article says he spent nearly 3 weeks in Oklahoma City. So he might or might not have used an option last season.
clack - January 13, 2012
I don’t know, but I suspect he’s out or nearly out. He was demoted in Philly a couple times and in Houston too. He’s kinda old for a young guy, too.
CRPerry13 - January 13, 2012
Good post.
The poll asked who I thought had the best chance to break camp in the rotation, meaning who the FO is likely to pick. I chose Lyles because I feel like they don’t want to hurt his confidence and he has the most fan draw, but now I’m having 2nd thoughts. Here’s the order of who I think has the best chance to make the rotation:
Weiland- he’s Luhnow’s acquisition so that makes me think he’ll get the edge.
Lyles- biggest fan draw and they probably dont’ want to hurt his confidence. Held his own last year.
Sosa- Has good stuff and probably has the best chance to have a stellar Spring.
Aneury- only member on the list to be in the bigs all of last year.
Harrell- least hyped.
That’s different than the order I’d put them in if I were in charge:
Harrell- I’m much higher on him than most. Good MLB track record and underrated stuff.
Weiland- Appears to have nothing left to prove in the minors.
Lyles- highest ceiling on the list but I think he was rushed. AAA may do more harm than good but there is a chance he could improve his game without having to get shelled in the bigs.
Aneury- I think a year in a AAA rotation will give a definitive answer on whether he is a starter or reliever. Low innings last year may limit ability to pitch full season in MLB rotation.
Sosa- Not a believer. Too old to develop, limited repertoire, struggled as reliever, poor MLB track record.
There are a couple of other candidates not on the list who have an outside shot (namely Paul Clemens and Xavier Cedeno). I also am still holding out hope (even though I know it’s not going to happen) for an upside free agent signing (like Chris Young, Jon Garland, Rich Harden, etc.).
Snake Diggity - January 13, 2012
lyles' confidence
I think starting him down at AAA will only do him well. It might be a blow to his ego but as long as he’s able to go down to OKC and handle business I think his confidence will be fine. I don’t think him getting shelled in the majors will be any better on his confidence. We saw a different and more confident Happ last year after his trip down. My vote is for Wieland to be our #5 to start the year.
lawson3 - January 13, 2012 via mobile
I agree with this. I don’t see why sending guys, that probably weren’t major league ready, down to AAA is such a bad idea.
MadMartygan - January 13, 2012
I don’t even think it’d be a blow to his ego. He’s likely a smart enough guy to know why the Astros are putting him there – it’s about minor league options and development, not a lack of confidence in his skills.
CRPerry13 - January 13, 2012
True, there are other options. Guys like Clemens, Keuchel, and Cedeno are also options, but are longshots and would have to have a 2011few Jordan Lyles type spring training, and even that wasn’t enough for him.
Aneury seems like a safe bet to start the year in OKC. Like you said above he could build his innings up some. Plus the Astros have quite a few relief options and he wasn’t all that effective as a bullpen guy last year anyways. If he starts in the minors then I would hope that he true to work on developing other pitchers. However, I think I read where he already has 700+ minor league innings spread across several years, so the fact that he hasn’t developed another pitch by now doesn’t make it seem likely that he can do it in the future.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
Typo
2011 Jordan Lyles type spring.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
It’s possible that he has a third pitch but is afraid to use it. I find it hard to believe that pitchers who have been in the minors as long as Sosa and Rodriguez have not developed other pitches. I think it comes down to their confidence in the pitches when they get to the ML level. One big difference is that An-Rod is still fairly young. It’s not all that unusual to see pitchers at his age in the majors who lack a quality third pitch.
clack - January 13, 2012
Could Aneury be a good option for the AAA rotation. Maybe see if he can get that 3rd pitch to become a consistent part of his arsenal. He was viewed as a starter but stashed in the bullpen, so last year was a bit of a wasted developmental year.
MadMartygan - January 13, 2012
Sure. At his age, I don’t see a problem if he is put in the AAA rotation. It may depend on how the bullpen shakes out too. If he has a good spring training and the bullpen looks weak, they might put him in the ML bullpen out of necessity.
clack - January 13, 2012
I'd like to see Weiland as the 5th starter, as well.
It might be in Lyles’s best interest to give him at least a couple of months at AAA this season. Give Happ the 4th spot, and if he struggles Lyles can take his place.
I like Weiland a lot, though, probably more than I should. He looks like he could fit well in the back of the rotation, with a bit of upside to maybe be more one day.
Stupendous Man - January 13, 2012 via mobile
astro pitching
good analysis… one or more of these 2 pitch guys needs to be in bullpen…sosa might be a good closer….happ and norris were doing good at end of 2011….wandy and myers are veteran pitchers….i think our best prospects are the to AA guys we got from atlanta…they were braves top guys…lyles was looking good last yr at the end of his tryout time… that guy we got from redsox has not shown well, but his last start for redsox was a good one….who knows… we will find out in spring….mike h
Mike HJALM - January 13, 2012
Sosa would get my vote to go to the bullpen, but he’s struggled there in the past. He seems to fit the stereotypical reliever type on paper.
Maybe he’s a good candidate to pitch an inning in relief or two when he doesn’t have to face left-handed hitters. He’s not lights out against righties, but he is better.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
I’d also like to comment about how nice it is to have prospects competing for the lone open rotation spot as opposed to have washed-up has-beens competing. It bodes really well for the AAA rotation.
Snake Diggity - January 13, 2012
I agree big time. It is nice to have options beside guys in the mold of Brian Moehler and Nelson Figueroa.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
the fact that we have so many back end rotation type guys
we need to test out at the major league level presents a pretty decent business case for clearing rotation space in the persons of Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers.
Add the names that Conroesto has picked out and you have Clemens, Keuchel, Oberholtzer and maybe even Cosart who may be ready in 2012.
Myers, there’s no way we’re exercising his 2013 option, so he’s probably gone after 2012, shouldn’t we be going all out to save some of that $14m and clear his spot to evaluate someone else?
AstroB - January 13, 2012
That is true. The added depth is nice. The guys you mentioned could be just around the corner. The Astros need to find out about Harrell and Weiland this year, or at least soon. Aneury still has some time.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
off-topic
I ran across this recounting of the season ticket holders’ meeting with Luhnow, Postolos, and Crane as described here. You might find it of interest. There is a mention that Luhnow wants to strengthen relations with the Mexican Pacific League (a AAA level league in Mexico). Given that this is a third hand recounting, I’m not exactly sure what this is about. However, I have noticed that Luhnow made some productive signings for the Cardinals out of the Mexican League in the past. Some other teams seem to pay more attention to that league than the Astros. I wonder if we will see some signings from Mexico?
clack - January 13, 2012
Do the Astros currently not scout that area.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
I don’t know. Of course, there’s a range of intensity in scouting various areas, depending on how much time scouts are willing to spend there. Maybe the Astros’ international scouts spend most of their time in DR and Venezuela. However, the would eventually see some Mexico league play, since Mexico participates in the Carribean playoffs.
As I think about this cryptic point, it comes to mind that perhaps Luhnow wants more Astros players to do their winter league work in Mexico. I notice that some teams like the A’s and Cubs have a number of prospects who play in Mexico winter league. Those teams probably also gain more information on the native Mexico league players if their team’s players play with them. If you want to think more “out of the box,” why couldn’t the Astros encourage or sponsor a Mexican League team for Astros’ prospects in Texas on the border? That would be a great way of increasing South Texas fans’ interest in the Astros during the winter. This thought came to mind when a google revealed that Tucson, which lost it’s winter league team, had approached the Mexican League about locating a team in Arizona.
clack - January 13, 2012
That would be a good idea.
On a side note I am actually working in Harlingen right now, and all the people that I’ve talked to down this way seem to be Houston fans. Texans mania is going on down there too to some extent. The point being is that it is very possible that if they started a team this way in the winter that it could increase interest in the Astros like you said. We should be having quite a few prospects coming up to the majors in the next couple of years and casual fans may be more inclined to watch them if they’ve seen them play in person.
After all the Astros need to try to keep as much of Texas as they can away from the Rangers.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
also off-topic (sorry conroestro!)
I was watching MLB network at B-Dubs in Conroe today at lunch, and I saw that they had Brian Bogusevic ranked as one of the top-10 young players projected to break out in 2012.
That would be cool.
CRPerry13 - January 13, 2012
Ha. Oops. Well there’s the link for it underneath.
MadMartygan - January 13, 2012
Off topic also. Bogey gets a little love.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20054069&topic_id=7417714&tcid=fb_MLBNETWORK_20054069&c_id=mlb
MadMartygan - January 13, 2012
Putting Bogusevic in with Matt Moore and Paul Goldschmidt is impressive rookie company. Well, impressive until I see that Richard Justice is the guy who puts Bogey’s name there. I’m glad to see Bogusevic get attention, but Richard Justice is a bit of a homer here.
clack - January 13, 2012
Oh no! I didn’t notice that it was freaking Justice.
MadMartygan - January 13, 2012
I should have watched it with more focus. This lost all meaning for me. Having said that, I think Bogey is gonna have a really nice year.
MadMartygan - January 13, 2012
MLBn still had to agree to put him on the list! And actually, I agree with having him on there (if he gets full playing time). I was surprised b/c I expected he would be overlooked.
CRPerry13 - January 13, 2012
I don’t know. They’re probably just dicking around and filling program space. Stupid Justice.
MadMartygan - January 13, 2012
Justice left the Houston Chronicle to be a columnist for MLB.com and a commentator on MLB Network.
clack - January 13, 2012
That is good news for Bogey. Count me in on his cautiously optimistic bandwagon. Hopefully he picks up where he left off last season.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
Yeah, after his years of basically begging for it in a fake tongue in cheek tone.
MadMartygan - January 13, 2012
Either way. I’m still really looking forward to watching Bogey this year. He’s a good choice for the list, regardless.
MadMartygan - January 13, 2012
I’m hoping for Bousevic to have a break out season. It can happen. I think something in between is more likely. But I just don’t put credibility in attention provided by Richard Justice. He has been pushing Bogusevic for a couple of years, and berated Wade before the 2011 season started for not writing Bogusevic into the opening day lineup. Bogey seems like one of Justice’s “causes,” like Drew Stubbs.
clack - January 13, 2012
Absolutely agree.
MadMartygan - January 13, 2012
Generally agreed, but I’d like to point out that Stubbs is pretty good and Bogusevic was great in 2011.
CRPerry13 - January 13, 2012
I have nothing against Stubbs. Justice is beating the drum over an old issue (like 5 or 6 years ago)—-the Astros drafted Stubbs, offered a bonus, and then withdrew it when Selig called Drayton to complain. Stubbs then went to UT, later to be drafted by the Reds. The Selig influence is a legitimate issue, but Justice beats that dead horse over and over. Since Stubbs has been in the majors, Justice tends to exaggerate Stubbs’ greatness in order to reiterate his point about the mistake made by the Astros.
clack - January 13, 2012
Justice referred to Bogusevic as a “good defensive center fielder”. Not right fielder. I don’t know if that was just Justice being Justice or if it’s an indication of the Astros’ actual plans for Bogusevic this season.
Hal J - January 15, 2012
I should hope not
Bogusevic is a borderline CF in a regular park, in MMP he is out of his element and I feel his arm would be wasted there anyway. Of course if F. Martinez has not lost too much range he could be a really good RF range wise and between Bogusevic in CF, F.Martinez in RF, and JD. Martinez in LF they should be able to cover the ground collectively…
Of course we are getting well ahead of ourselves since there is going to be a lot of competition at pretty much ever position in the field…
And honestly none of these guys are guaranteed to become consistent major league regulars, nearly all of our youngsters have holes in their game that need addressing and could very easily end up washing out in a season or two.
Fingers Crossed.
Crzycjunx76 - January 15, 2012
I think it’s Justice being Jutice.
clack - January 16, 2012
It’s about time the Astros had a homer in the major media.
Timothy De Block - January 17, 2012
Ha. I guess that’s true.
MadMartygan - January 17, 2012
It would be great to find trading partners for Wandy and Myers
Then there would be 3 spots open in the rotation.
I just look at the staff and I see a bunch of AAAA pitchers.
I also am beginning to think that Lyles was rushed. Him, Seaton, and Cosart would form one hell of a rotation at AA this year. All 22 and younger.
Neil Leininger - January 13, 2012
Lyles spent most of 2010 in AA and pitched very well. He earned his spot in AAA last year. No chance that he would be back in Corpus Christi this year, even if he didn’t reach the majors last season.
Stupendous Man - January 13, 2012 via mobile
But I do agree that he was perhaps rushed. A full season in AAA last year might have been good for him.
Stupendous Man - January 13, 2012 via mobile
Yankees acquire Pineda for Montero
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/mariners-yankees-swap-pineda-for-montero.html
Wow. Pretty big trade. One less suitor for Wandy I suppose.
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
Whoa that'a a huge trade
Sucks to be Montero. That park isn’t going to showcase his power like Yankee Stadium would have. Awesome for Pineda though.
CRPerry13 - January 13, 2012
So, the Yanks finally trade Montero. They kept acting like they wouldn’t trade him. There are some significant secondary pieces in this trade from both directions.
clack - January 13, 2012
Looks like a win for both teams.
Stupendous Man - January 13, 2012 via mobile
yanks also add Kuroda
Yanks are done lying in the weeds.
http://mobile.pinstripealley.com/2012/1/13/2706137/new-york-yankees-sign-hiroki-kuroda-to-one-year-deal#comments
conroestro - January 13, 2012 via mobile
Dang
Looks like they’re going for one last hurrah over the next couple years before Jeter, A-Rod, and Teixeira all move into an old folks home together
CRPerry13 - January 13, 2012
Anyone from the Tampa Bay minors that could make that list
Supposedly they sniffed around on Carlos Lee… they still want to contend but have very little payroll to burn. It would probably take eating all but about $ 4-5 million to get something of value out of them but I think it is more than worth it. I mean what are our options, keep him pay his whole salary and get nothing, or save 4-5 million and potentially get something useful.
I was not quite sure where to put this…
Crzycjunx76 - January 15, 2012
I keep hearing of the Rays having interest in Carlos Pena. The Rays also signed Luke Scott recently. I’m not sure if that changes their interest in Pena or other 1b/DH option.
clack - January 15, 2012
A trade for Lee
I will reserve judgement. Part of me thinks there’s no way, with that contract, the Astros can get much of anything for him. But I now have unreasonably high expectations of our new GM, so I am hopeful. With Lee, if the choice is a couple of bullpen prospects or nothing, I’ll take nothing and hope he’s worth enough under the new CBA that we get a draft pick compensation when he walks next year. Of course, he may retire. I’ve got mixed feelings. I don’t want to see the Astros’ best hitter leave if we don’t get anything useful in return.
CRPerry13 - January 16, 2012
No Type A or B compensation under the CBA.
The Astros would have to offer him a contract in the $11 million range next year in order to get free agent compensation. Of course, he might take that contract.
clack - January 16, 2012
I seriously doubt that Lee could find that much anywhere else on the market unless he has a stellar year. If not I’m sure he would accept that contract offer.
Unless he didn’t want to play for the Astros anymore and wanted a shot at the playoffs before his career is over.
conroestro - January 16, 2012 via mobile
I know, but isn’t there still compensation if the new contract is in the top percent of players at his position? There’s still compensation, just not Type A or B. I think
CRPerry13 - January 16, 2012
Clack definitely knows the answer to this. I think it might be offer a contract that is equal to the top 2 or 3% of players in the majors, regardless of position. I think the 11 Million figure Clack was using is an estimate of what that 2 or 3% projects to be.
It is possible that Carlos may look for one more multi year deal, or want to play for a contending team, but as it stands I would be surprised if the Astros offer him a contract of that size.
conroestro - January 16, 2012 via mobile
The only compensation occurs if the team offers a contract equal to the average of top 125 ML salaries AND he chooses to forego the contract and sign with another team. (I have read that this equates to around $11 – 11.5 million salary.)
The mlb.com summary of the new CBA states:
clack - January 16, 2012
An ESPN article states that the average salary of the top 125 players is currently $12.5 million, which would be the contract size that the departure team would have to offer.
clack - January 16, 2012
I can’t see the Astros offering Carlos Lee that salary and him not taking it.
conroestro - January 16, 2012 via mobile
I have continually lowered my estimate on Lee’s value. I began the offseason thinking that if Houston would eat $10M, they could get a decent prospect in return. Now, I’m thinking they’d have to eat somewhere near $14M in order to get a decent return (like 1 organizational top 10 prospect, not top 5). It probably won’t happen but I’m sure Crane could use the $4.5M in savings and Luhnow could always use the prospect.
Now that the Yankees have rotation depth, any chance of a Lee for Burnett swap? They need a DH. If the Yanks were willing to eat all of Burnett’s 2013 salary, it’d be a deal.
Snake Diggity - January 16, 2012
I have thought about that possibility. But Burnett is owed $16.5 million in 2013. So, Burnett is considrably more expensive than Carlos Lee. I don’t see any way that the Yankees would eat Burnett’s 2013 salary without expecting considrably more than Lee in return (like one of the Astros’ top prospects). I don’t think the Yankees are really desperate for a DH. Andruw Jones is the RHB side of a DH platoon—-the same side as Lee. In any event, guys like Pena, Branyan, and Derek Lee are available at a considerably lower price than the second year of Burnett’s salary.
clack - January 16, 2012
Agree. It looks like Lee, like the other above-minimum-salary players Houston has on its roster, is best kept until the deadline.
Snake Diggity - January 16, 2012
Yes the contract is a problem...
which is why I think the only way we get anything of use for him is by eating somewhere between 13-15 million of his final year. We might be able to dump him for nothing if we eat about 9 or so, but given the tight budgets some teams are under and that his partial no trade clause limits the teams he can go to, I think that greatly reduces his likelihood of moving to another team.
So basically the options are IMO.
Keep him, pay all his salary, and get nothing in return.
Keep him, hope he plays well and someone is desperate at the deadline.
Trade him, eat about 9 mil, get nothing in return but free up about 9 mil for other pursuits.
Trade him, eat about 13-15 mil, get something useful in return, and free up about 3-5 mil for other pursuits.
I liked the Rays rumor because of their situation, a small market club very much on the ledge between contention and mediocrity, and with little to no payroll to try to get over the hump. A team like that would be more willing IMO to part with something meaningful in exchange for Carlos on the cheap… of course the 4-6 mil more we would save by just dumping him might be worth more to the franchise than any prospect we would get in return.
For once I am confident that we have the front office and the decision tools in place to make a well informed rational decision. Even in the face of our franchises lack of organizational talent I find myself heartened by that thought.
Crzycjunx76 - January 16, 2012
Looking at this list
it occurs to me that we have both in the high minors and in the low minors a collection of young pitchers that have middle to lower end of the rotation potential. Granted some will end up bullpen arms and others will wash out all together, but it brings me to the question of J.A. Happ.
Happ has out performed his peripheral statistics throughout his career with the lone exception being the first half of this last season where he actually under performed. I feel he is at best the 4th man in most rotations and the 5th in a contenders rotation which means there are a great deal of options to replace him over the next few seasons. Since he is only under arb control for this season and then two more seasons it would seem to make sense to trade him should he have a good first half this season or next… I know the return might not be great but signing him to an extension would seem foolish given the options coming up behind him, and with the new FA compensation system letting him go for nothing would seem to be a waste.
Crzycjunx76 - January 17, 2012
true.
clack - January 17, 2012
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