The Crawfish Boxes

Timothy De Block - January 17, 2012 reply

Looking forward to the podcast which I haven't heard YET

But this is too big to pass up. A 1.876 million dollar raise was definately more than I was expecting and he’d better continue that stretch of good pitching that he had after he was brought back up after his demotion. If he doesn’t I’m going to wish we still had Ol’ Tal back…JK.

Its Gonna Happen - January 17, 2012 via mobile reply

I was expecting something in the $2 million range. The fact that he has been a starting pitcher for several years means that he will be due a good sum of money in arbitration, despite a less than stellar performance in 2011. Arb salaries for team controlled players are only partially based on performance, and performance beyond the most recent year is taken into account. Previously when we had discussions around here about what Norris or Wandy would bring in a trade, I wondered if we should be thinking about trading Happ, given that he would be entering arbitration eligibility.

clack - January 17, 2012 reply

I paused the podcast to comment on something said

The point was made that once Bagwell reaches 60%, he’s virtually in the hall of fame. I don’t think that’s necessarily true. In the past, someone who has reached 60% so early has usually gotten in, but the case is different this time (and will remain different) because of the PED question.

Writers that truly believe Bagwell used PED’s (and are therefore off my Christmas card list) will not suddenly change their minds. If 40% of the BBWAA writers believe that he used, and they refuse to vote for anybody they believe used, then Bagwell could conceivably stay at 60%. It’s a case where ego is involved, and what we are seeing with the hall of fame voters this year and in the past few years can justifiably be said to be completely unique in the history of the sport. The proliferation of mass communication, added to increases in technology and the widespread exposure of PEDs in sports, has created a new situation.

Unless writers change their minds for some reason, I think it is very possible (and sadly likely, if enough writers feel the same way) that Bagwell will never see the hall, even if he manages to reach as high as 70%.

CRPerry13 - January 17, 2012 reply

I agree that future circumstances could make the past precedent less important. Besides the PED issue, the future glut of HOF worthy players, and the way that the PED issue will become more controversial as a result, creates more uncertainty about Bagwell’s future in the HOF. That said, I think that Bagwell will get into the HOF, but it may not happen as soon as we would like.

clack - January 17, 2012 reply

I'm not too cool to join you guys on the Podcast.

I’m just really intimidated by your greatness. Honestly, if there were a Dundee Award for podcasting, you guys would at LEAST win Honorable Mention.

CRPerry13 - January 17, 2012 reply

see too cool

Same here CR.

I’m skeered.

conroestro - January 17, 2012 via mobile reply

In other news:

Tigers DH Victor Martinez will miss the 2012 season with a torn ACL.

Given that the tigers will definitely compete for the playoffs in 2012, might Carlos Lee be a very good solution for them?

In almost 600 PA last season, V-Mart hit 76-12-103 , 330/380/470
In 650 PA last season, Lee hit 66-18-94 , 275/342/446 (and that’s with nobody in front of him to hit in)

Given that Lee’s contract is over in 2013 (when V-Mart will be back) and Lee’s flexibility at 1B (can give Cabrera a rest if needed) and LF (Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch aren’t exactly sure-things)….I see a potential fit if the Astros eat a lot of contract.

Lunhow should be on the phone, asking about good prospects.

CRPerry13 - January 17, 2012 reply

I'd miss Carlos

Without him we’d have no water buffalo jokes and TCB would grow boring. That being said, fingers are crossed that we can get at least one prospect that has standout potential.

Its Gonna Happen - January 17, 2012 via mobile reply

We could make fun of me, if that makes you feel better. ;)

Ok

But it won’t be as fun if you’re not making an ungodly amount of money to suck at what you do.

Its Gonna Happen - January 17, 2012 via mobile reply

I don’t know that the Astros can get much of value in return, but I agree that the Tigers look like a decent match.

clack - January 17, 2012 reply

That does look like a good fit. I suppose Damon and Vlad are less expensive free agent options that the Tigers could also get for a year, but they also wouldn’t be as good as Carlos. Pena probably is holding out for a multi year deal and is also more expensive, but also is another option for them. They wouldn’t have to give anything up if they went that route, but Carlos definitely seems like a good fit for them.

Don’t know if the Tigers is a team that is blocked by Carlos though. If so maybe he would waive that for a chance at the playoffs with the tigers. We know he probably doesn’t want to DH full time though.

conroestro - January 17, 2012 via mobile reply

We signed Jack Cust.

I guess in J-Mike’s role?

Doesn’t make much sense.

Yeah. Can’t say I’m a fan of this.

Judging from video, it looks like he has pretty good bat speed.

I think the Astros may be hoping Cust will be able to come back from his sub-par season last year. He would probably take J-Mike’s role as pinch hitter / 5th OF’er since neither Bourgeois nor Shuck can bring power off the bench as OF’ers and Cust’s defense is questionable. With his bad defense, there would be a need for an infielder who can play OF (Downs).

Risky Signing, but there is potential, and he wouldn’t be totally useless unless he pulls a Joe Inglett and Brad Mills plays him like Joe Inglett half of the season.

Yeah. That’s what I figure they’re doing.

Completely out of left field, yeah. Weird signing.

I guess he can DH in 2013.

But what do the Astros do with him until then? Maybe Lee is on his way out soon?

You don’t sign someone to DH in two years!!!! Settle that next year! The guy didn’t even play in the field last year.

Maybe out of the young guys competing for the starting spots, the ones that don’t make get sent back down for more seasoning. I guess they don’t want to waste the pinch hitter spot on someone they want getting everyday playing time. I don’t know. This is irritating.

The guy who loses the competition gets to DH and gets to spend a few days in the field. The main seasoning is going to be at the plate, not defensively.

No I mean this year. I’ve gotta see if this is a two year but with the 2nd year being a club option.

I agree.

I have no idea how this move can be explained rationally. Let’s wait on the press release, I guess…

I think this probably assumes, or is based on the liklihood, that Brett Wallace starts the season in AAA. Cust is a platoon player who hits from the same side as Wallace. (And for that matter, maybe Wallace is better off getting more at bats at AAA then being used in a platoon at the ML level.) Cust probably is a roll of the dice who gets discarded if he is terrible or if Wallace tears up AAA and needs to be called up. That’s my thinking. If Cust’s power returns (a big IF, of course), then he could be a really nice addition, since he would add OBP and the ability to walk to the lineup. I’m not saying that is likely to happen (I think that the liklihood is that his power days are gone), but it is possible.

clack - January 18, 2012 reply

WTF!!! How did Ed Wade get back in the office!

Right. I mean that’s about as Ed Wade of a move as you can make.

Timothy De Block - January 18, 2012 reply

Dude has a 17.2% BB%.

This is the anti-wade signing.

That was posted before it was a 1 +1 deal and it was reported as a 2 year deal. Signing an aging veteran that offers no upside a multi year deal is the prototypical ed wade deal.

Subber10 - January 18, 2012 reply

I already have nicname for Jack Cust….the Ghost of Ed Wade….

Ha. It’s like they’re trolling us here. “You want walks? Fine we’ll give you walks.”

Maybe Wade signed him in November.

And just forgot to tell Luhnow until now. “Oh, yeah, I signed Jack Cust, by the way. Completely forgot about it, so yeah….”

Only a 1-year deal

With option for 2nd year.

brianmctaggart Brian McTaggart
Astros sign Jack Cust to one-year deal plus club option
45 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply

Makes more sense. No way he earned a two year deal after last season.

Unless Ed Wade was still our GM – he loves him some veterans.

Yep. There it is.

So basically.

Bogey, Schafer(maybe) J.D, Cust and I’m guessing Bourgeois? Fernando Martinez either beats out one of the others or gets himself together in AAA and Shuck gets one more year in AAA. I can’t say I’m against Fernando trying to get some of his confidence back, and I’m whatevs on Shuck.

I’m also going to be expecting Carlos Lee to be dealt.

Last I read, the Rays were interested. Maybe the Tigers now, as well.

Even then, Cust isn’t a 1st baseman. Bogey could play 1st, but his defense is best in right. Cust really doesn’t fit with where the club is at right now if they expect him to be anything more than a pinch hitter.

Everybody is a first baseman.

I’d imagine it’d be the easiest position to learn. Reminds me of the movie Moneyball. Plus Cust has had a good OBP near .400 in years past.

He’s got some power and a decent eye, but he strikes out like crazy. Maybe Safeco killed him last year.

He has always been the 3 Outcome player. If he can produce two of those outcomes (walks, HRs), I really don’t care about the K outcome. But I don’t look forward to fans complaining about Cust’s strike outs. If people thought Bill Hall whiffs too much, they haven’t seen Cust yet.

As an aside, I’m reminded of something Bagwell said about Chris Johnson’s offense in 2010. He said he had never seen a player who benefitted so much by swinging through pitches that were supposed to get him out with weak contact. Bagwell said he didn’t know if CJ could keep it up (he didn’t), but CJ would whiff on pitches that cause most players to make weak contact and then later in the count hit a double or HR. I wonder if Cust’s power is helped because he can’t make contact with pitches intended to induce weak groundballs?

clack - January 18, 2012 reply

Sounds like it's time for another "Who Art Thou" article with use of Pitch F/X.

I’ll add it to the list.

Timothy De Block - January 19, 2012 reply

yeah, I’m assuming that a player who can run around the outfield can learn to play 1st base. it’s the whole defensive spectrum thing.

Cust perhaps could fake playing LF in MMP, but it would be dicey putting him in other outfield positions or on the road.

clack - January 18, 2012 reply

Finally finished the podcast

I was really intrigued by 2 different points. The first was Villar possibly playing CF. We had discussed maybe him being in the running for RF, where his strong arm and speed would be ideal, but his bat wasn’t far enough along to play a corner spot. The idea of him playing CF kind of seems perfect. I do think he has the speed to cover enough ground and his bat would play up for the position.

The second point was Jeff Luhnows perspective on Brad Mills coming into the organization. Now, I’ve been on record saying I’m a fan of Brad Mills and think with a better group of players, he could produce a winning team. But, how would a true outsider view the manager of the worst team in baseball? With that 25 page report he brought in, I’m sure Mills had his own section highlighted. Now would the FO accept Mills’ change in philosophy if he were to support the youngsters, or has Luhnow already replaced him and is just waiting for the first slip up?

Ps. Great Podcast…More draft talk, I don’t care how early it is! ;)

Its Gonna Happen - January 19, 2012 via mobile reply

Shortstop is a more valuable position than center field

His bat would play up more at SS than CF, and Villar has gold glove potential at shortstop, it’s not like he projects to be defensively lacking at the position.

I don’t see it.

OremLK - January 19, 2012 reply

I think by Villar he meant Paredes.

I feel like an ass

I did mean Paredes, Villar is our “future at SS” (knocks on wood)

Its Gonna Happen - January 19, 2012 via mobile reply

Ah

That makes a bit more sense. Although isn’t third base more of an organizational need than CF?

OremLK - January 19, 2012 reply

Here's something to chew on for now.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6468

7.12 K/9 with a 100 mph fastball in college? That doesn’t really excite me. This is not a Strasburg-like prospect.

Which one is the Strasburg-like prospect?

None of them is. I’m just not excited. A 7.71 K/9 in college could be 6 or worse in the pros. 100 mph and low K rate could indicate a flat fastball. Major leaguers will crush that.

I’d rather have a toolsy upside guy at this point. I don’t know much about Appel, but he’s not a guy I dream about as the ace of a rotation.

7.12 oops.

Right. I am not the biggest Appel fan, either. I will say that his Cape Cod and Team USA stints looked good with the 36 Ks and 5 BBs in 29 innings. He’s definitely a possibility for the top pick though and I figure we should get to know him a bit this year.

Yeah, scouting-wise everything looks good about Appel, but there is something disquieting about the results…that he doesn’t have the dominance you would expect. The best thing that could happen is for Appel to destroy the college hitters this year and become a consensus first pick. But right now, I’m not completely sold on him.

clack - January 19, 2012 reply

The scouting reports are just amazing. Everything you could ask for, with electric stuff, 2 good secondary pitches, a clean and easy delivery, and a body that’s made for pitching 200 innings. When you look at the numbers, they just don’t pop out like you’d like. I hope he does have a dominating junior year.

February 17th is probably his first start, so stay tuned.

I agree that he is everything you want in a pitcher

But his numbers just haven’t been all that, so far. I however, will take a different stance, and hope that he struggles a bit this year and drops like Matt Purke did last year. I’m already excited about the possibility of getting a Mark Appel and maybe a Nick or Trey Williams to boot, but getting a Victor Roache or Giolito and Appel, that’s just awesome.

Its Gonna Happen - January 19, 2012 via mobile reply

This is exactly why I was so low on Cole

And have been vocally critical of the Pirates for taking him first overall over @ Minor League Ball. And Cole’s results were better than Appel’s have been up to this point.

That said, if Appel comes into this college season and starts to put up gaudy numbers to match his scouting reports, that would easily solidify his spot as first overall.

OremLK - January 19, 2012 reply

It really is some bad luck to get stuck with this draft. Hopefully somebody kills it this spring.