Happy New Years everyone! Did you know that TCB turns 7 this season? On May 2, 2005, the site was launched. It's gone through changes over the seasons, but one thing we've always striven to do is provide a great place for Astros fans to discuss the team.
This upcoming season will be my third writing for the site, and I plan to do what I always do, which is get better and better while providing you readers with the best coverage possible. In the past year, we added some very talented writers who have been great additions to the site, covered the draft, prospects and trades with some depth. Oh, and launched a pretty awesome podcast that I hope is as fun to listen to as it is to record.
The last thing I want to do is get predictable, but I couldn't help myself when I saw this story about how the Tigers are thinking of moving uber-pitching prospect Jacob Turner in the right deal for a starter. They were in on Gio Gonzalez and are now making noise about Matt Garza.
My question almost immediately was: is Wandy worth enough to bring back Turner in a trade? How can we humble internet writers figure something like this out? Well, I broke out one of my favorite tools, the Trade Value Calculator to figure it out.
As with every time I've used this, let's break down the parameters of the calculations (in case you don't want to click the above link and read Sky Kalkman's original breakdown).
The Calculator looks at salary remaining less the player's value based on WAR to get a surplus value for trade purposes. There is an adjustment for free agent compensation as well as arbitration eligibility seasons.
It also assumes the value of one Win Above Replacement on the free agent market as $4.5 million. Since it was dreamt up back in 2009 and the value of a win fluctuates, we can then fluctuate with it. For instance, with Wandy's number, I adjusted it up for the two season's he's got left (before the option) to $5 million per win. That still may be low, but it's closer than the Calculator allows by itself.
The other thing I did to Wandy's value is assume he'll be a Type B. The thing we can't determine yet is how valuable player compensation will be due to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. I'm tempted to take it out entirely, since there's no way to know whether Wandy would even count in that Type B group by then.
So, we've got the values set, with his salary at $10 million in 2012 and $13 million in 2013 and we know the cost per win on the open market. The only thing left is projecting what his WAR values will be for the next two seasons.
That gets harder. Do we assume Wandy can bounce back to his 2010 levels of around 3.5 WAR? Or, will this decline in 2011 forebode more decline in coming seasons? My thinking was that he'd split the difference next season, giving him 2.5 WAR and then decreasing that to 2.0 for the final year of his deal.
Plugging those numbers into the system nets us a surplus value of $2.6 million.
Of course, we also have the question of his option year for 2014. If the team decides to decline that option, Wandy would get an extra $2.5 million, which means his value drops even further. If he doesn't get compensation at that point, his value would swing about $5 million and would be negative.
That explains the slow market for Wandy somewhat, as the lefty is coming off a so-so season and doesn't have a lot of extra value for a team. It also means his value is much less than Turner's, since a Top 10 pitching prospect has a surplus value around $15.2 million.
What does that mean for this trade (besides the fact it's not happening)? The Astros would have to kick in a whole lot of money, possibly covering his entire 2012 salary just to bring back Turner in the deal.
That's right. A one-for-one swap would have to be heavily loaded with money going to Detroit to make it balance.
Obviously, this is not the end-all, be-all of trades. GMs don't weigh things like this, so if Detroit got desperate enough and Jeff Luhnow proved to be a Jedi in training, this could still go down. But, it's not likely at all, especially because Houston would probably need more in return than just one player who may or may not get injured.
Now, running these numbers for Bud Norris proved a slightly better trade scenario. Bud's value, assuming Type B compensation and not projecting any growth in his WAR total, would end up around $22.6 million for the next four years of control. That would easily net Turner in return plus another prospect or two.
Of course, trading Norris does not save Houston any money and turns a proven young guy into an unproven (yet impeccably resume-d) even younger guy. Most of you are probably saying you'd do that deal in an instant, but I'm not sure Detroit will.
See, even if the Tigers liked Norris a lot, he doesn't have the same reputation as Gio or Garza and is much lower profile than those other two. Norris also has only one season with a big inning total that suggests he could be a top end starter on a playoff team. Would he make Detroit feel better as the No. 2 behind Verlander? I'm guessing not.
Even though the Norris deal makes value sense, it wouldn't fly practically. The Wandy deal seems to pass the practicality test, but doesn't fly value-wise.
That's the problem Houston is facing on the trade market, compounded by the lateness of things. Teams probably are less willing to spend big in prospects so close to the season. I'm not saying it won't happen, just that it's less likely. My dreams of a Turner-Lyles-Cosart rotation can probably rest for now.
Do you agree with Wandy's value? Do you think it should be higher? Would you be happy with a trade of Wandy-for-Turner straight up?
0 recs | 64 comments
Put like that it does seem unrealistic to land Turner
We didn’t expect Cahill and Gonzalez to be traded, nor the Cubs to make Matt Garza available (even if their asking price is prohibitive).
But teams can get desperate. The Diamondbacks gave up Jarrod Parker and the Giants parted with Zach Wheeler for Beltran.
AstroB - January 2, 2012
The Diamondbacks were comfortable parting with Jarrod Parker because they also have excellent pitching prospects like Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, and Archie Bradley. Zach Wheeler for Beltran was an eyebrow raiser, though.
Stupendous Man - January 2, 2012 via mobile
I would remove the type B compensation...
The CBA eliminates Type A and B compensation. A team can offer a salary equal to the average top 125 MLB salaries and get compensation if the player refuses it and signs elsewhere. I’m not sure what that equates to, but I have read that it means you have to offer a salary in the $12 million range. If that’s true, then there won’t be much if any surplus value. So, I don’t believe that free agent compensation has much value for this calculation anymore.
clack - January 2, 2012
The market for Wandy seems pretty quiet as of yet.
The rumor mill regarding Wandy seems to have grounded to a halt. I still think Colorado or Florida (assuming both teams miss out on Garza) are the most likely destinations. I’m not expecting any elite prospects in return, though.
Stupendous Man - January 2, 2012 via mobile
The Marlins’ farm system is not exciting at all. It looks worse than the Astros’ farm system to me. So, I wouldn’t expect a lot from them.
The Rockies’ strategy seems schizophrenic. Sometimes they seem to be in more of a rebuilding mode, and sometimes they look like they want to compete. I’m not sure what to make of their thoughts right now.
clack - January 2, 2012
I’m with you on being unimpressed by the Marlins farm system. That being said, they’ve been one of the few teams linked to Wandy so far this offseason. Maybe we could get Matt Dominguez? There’s not much else of value.
In the case of the Rockies, hopefully they have interest in revisiting their Wandy trade talks from August. They were willing to take on his whole salary last time around, so maybe they will be more willing to part with talent if the Astros take on some salary.
Stupendous Man - January 2, 2012 via mobile
I’ve seen the Marlins rumored as suitors for Matt Garza also, but I don’t see how they would have enough to trade for him. The Cubs need a first baseman, so maybe they could offer Gaby Sanchez and what ever else they have, but I don’t see how they could pull that off. I doubt that they would want to trade Sanchez with no real replacements. Seeing there big splashes this offseason maybe they would then sign Prince Fielder.
conroestro - January 2, 2012 via mobile
Something I don’t really understand from all the trade rumors about the Marlins is why anybody considers Gaby Sanchez to be a great trade piece. Especially when trading for a legitimate #2 quality starter. Sanchez really isn’t a guy that screams “prospect” or “underperforming”. He’s a nice, Lyle-Overbay-ish player, but not projectable as anything else.
CRPerry13 - January 2, 2012
Marlins
If they could snag Matt Dominguez and/or Chad James I would be satisfied. I like the numbers Kyle Jensen put up as well could be a nice piece to get in the trade as well.
lawson3 - January 2, 2012
Dominguez is supposed to be a good fielding third baseman. But I wonder if he will ever hit like a third baseman. His minor league offensive stats are not impressive. I wouldn’t be all that enthusiastic about getting him for Wandy. Here’s Sickels’ list for the Marlins, by the way. Sickels thinks the best comp for Dominguez is Pedro Feliz. None of the pitchers jump out at you. But there are a couple of B prospect pitchers and several C+ or C level prospect pitchers.
clack - January 3, 2012
Kevin Goldstein isn't high on Dominguez
3-star prospect, pretty much a snoozer all around except for on defense. If I’m the Astros, I’m not interested.
CRPerry13 - January 3, 2012
It would surprise me if Luhnow were able to trade Wandy for fair value before the season. I’ve said this over and over, but I feel a fair return for Wandy would be something similar to what was received in the Oswalt trade (1 MLB ready pitcher, 1 top 100 prospect, 1 org top 10 prospect).
There are too many rebuilding teams shopping pitchers with comparable skills to Wandy, so the market is flooded.
Snake Diggity - January 2, 2012
Yeah, the trade market never really materialized for Wandy. Alot of more attractive options opened up on the trade front.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Astros were done making deals this offseason, and just had to wait until the trade deadline.
However, with all the potential free agent starting pitchers next season, I’m sure some will be available for rent at the trade deadline. I doubt Wandy will be one of the more attractive options at the deadline as well.
conroestro - January 2, 2012 via mobile
Many of the pending free agents will be extended this year. Also, for contending teams looking to upgrade their rotation for the 2012 season at the deadline, trades are the only option.
I’d guess that if Houston hangs onto Wandy and shops him again at the deadline, he’ll easily fall into the top 5 of available arms, assuming he pitches how he has the last 3 years and stays healthy.
Snake Diggity - January 2, 2012
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/remaining-one-year-deal-starters.html
I was surprised to see the list of available pitchers. Still a pretty long list with some decent options for starters.
conroestro - January 2, 2012 via mobile
The Cameron article referenced there (demonstrating that cheap free agent veteran pitchers were the best value last season) got me to thinking about a strategy for the Astros. Trade Wandy for prospects, for as good as you can get, but realizing that they might not be elite or premium. Then pick up a lower cost free agent (without thinking a lot, say Colon, Francis, or Duke); at a cost of $2 – $6 million, the Astros would gain a pretty big chunk of payroll reduction (compared to Wandy’s salary). Then you hope that the free agent pitches well so that he can be traded at the deadline for more prospects. This is the “wash, rinse, repeat” strategy. However, this strategy is dependent on not having to fork over a lot of cash in the Wandy trade (if you have to pay more than $4 million or so, you don’t get a lot of payroll relief, which seems to be one of Crane’s goal.)
However, as I work through this strategy, it becomes clearer why the Wandy market is soft. A reliable LHP like Maholm may cost, say, 2 X 7 million. Sure, Maholm probably isn’t as good as Wandy, but if Wandy costs over $10 million more than Maholm, a team looking for a reliable veteran LHP for the rotation may think, “I would rather have Maholm and keep the $10 million.”
clack - January 2, 2012
Will Maholm sign for that little? That’s similar to the deal he signed 2 years ago. I think the year he had last year pushes him to the 9-10 mil range. If not, I think you are right, Malholm + the money looks more attractive to me.
Also to DC, the Tigers look like they have an awesome number 2. Wandy or Norris would be no. 3’s behind Verlander and Fister.
Brad E - January 2, 2012 via mobile
I’m sure that Maholm wants more, but will the market support it? My guess is that he may end up with $14 M, 2 year contract. I could be wrong, and maybe a team will buy into last season as his new normal, but he is basically a 4.22 career ERA starter who posted a 2.1 WAR last year. The surprising part of Cameron’s article is his finding that the 20 bargain free agent pitchers were paid only $2 million per win.
clack - January 2, 2012
Also, even if Maholm is paid $9 million/year on a 2 year contract, he stlll costs $7 million less than Wandy. Maholm is a reliable 2 WAR pitcher, which isn’t a lot less than David’s assumption for Wandy in his article.
clack - January 2, 2012
I wouldn’t mind seeing the wash rinse repeat theory here.
conroestro - January 2, 2012 via mobile
If the price is right Maholm would be a good value, whether it be for a contending team or a non contending team. There’s a chance that he performs better (I think he had a 3+ WAR season or two) and raise his value.
conroestro - January 2, 2012 via mobile
I’ve always liked Maholm, partly because the Astros saw him a lot, and he was tough on the Stros. If you look at Maholm’s peripherals, his GB % is impressive but his K rate is not. In terms of building up his value, it may depend on the defense behind him. I think his ERA was at his peak last year partly because the Pirates improved their defense considerably (that probably helped their whole pitching staff, but especially Maholm). So, I think he would make a of sense for a team with a good infield defense.
And, more generally, that’s another reason for the Astros to try to keep a good defensive team on the field if they intend on playing out the strategy I mentioned.
clack - January 2, 2012
I think we are thinking like losers. Wandy is a better pitcher than Maholm. Hopefully a competing team will agree. But, I think a Jacob Turner like prospect is out of the question. I think somewhere between the Melancon return and last year’s Bourn return is what we should expect. Right? Or do yall think Rodriguez should net more? I don’t know.
Brad E - January 2, 2012 via mobile
That sounds about right to me.
Stupendous Man - January 2, 2012 via mobile
If things fall right, maybe. I think the return probably would be closer to the Melancon trade side. The market is soft right now. It could firm up if a lot of trades/free agent signings occur and a team is left with the need for a starting pitcher.
clack - January 3, 2012
I'm thinking wait for the trade deadline
when playoff aspiring teams are desperate. There’s no real rush to deal him now other than some of us would like to see what the Astros would get in return.
CRPerry13 - January 3, 2012
…that true, except that Crane may have set a budget ceiling that requires the Astros to get rid of Wandy’s contract by opening day. We don’t know for sure, but that’s a possibility.
clack - January 3, 2012
Crane seems like a hands off type of guy. I’d hope he’s not setting restrictions in his first few months of ownership. I think Wade and Drayton did a pretty good job of reducing the payroll enough for Crane. If he was concerned about moving Wandy I imagine Rodriguez would of been moved at the trade deadline.
Timothy De Block - January 3, 2012
I hope he’s a hands off guy. That would be nice to gave after Drayton.
Payroll definitely seems like it is low enough at around the mid fifty range, but Cranes comments that it will go down before up makes me wonder if one of Luhnow’s job tasks is to find a new home for Wandy.
conroestro - January 3, 2012 via mobile
He never stated it would go down. He said it would follow revenue and that meant it likely would go down before it went back up.
Timothy De Block - January 3, 2012
If Crane really is forcing a drastic payroll reduction before opening day, I think that’s incredibly short-sighted. Not only can I not imagine a situation in which Wandy’s contract will make or break the organization, so selling low on your one valuable player would be a bad move.
Snake Diggity - January 3, 2012
Yeah
Wandy should be traded if the Astros can get good value for him, not because the Astros supposedly can’t afford to keep him on payroll.
I’m a little tired of the Astros’ ownership constantly treating the team like it sits in Kansas City or Milwaukee. They play in the sixth-largest media market in the country. They just signed an enormous media deal with Comcast. Gate receipts suck because the team sucks, but we all know how much money even the loser teams make through revenue sharing.
But this is what we should expect from an owner who bought the team on $300 million in loans.
I’m not saying the Astros need to be making huge free agent signings right now. I understand their plan. But just doing a salary dump doesn’t seem to help much.
Only_A_Lad - January 3, 2012
I'm in favor of whatever strategy brings the Astros back into relevance quicker
If that means tanking the payroll now to pay off debt faster, then so be it. I hope not, though.
CRPerry13 - January 3, 2012
I am rooting for one of these signings, with Chris Young being my favorite. Harden, Maholm, or Garland would work too.
Snake Diggity - January 2, 2012
Jacob Turner
I don’t know much about him but we need to build for the future. Question, if the deal did go down would it be one for one or would they need to include a throw in or two?
Its Gonna Happen - January 2, 2012 via mobile
I think Turner for Wandy + Cash straight up would be a huge win.
Uncle Chris - January 2, 2012
A Wandy trade is Beneficial
Wandy is not a part of our plan of the future. He should get traded if it will net us salary relief as well as a fair prospect value in return. I think a Wandy for Jacob Turner kind of deal would make sense for the Astros, even if the pitcher isn’t Jacob Turner and happens to be a different starting pitcher from another team. But I would still like the prospect value in return to be about the same as Jake Turner.
What this trade would do:
- Reduces the amount of money that will be on the major league payroll.
- Introduces a quality young pitcher to pitch alongside Jarred Cosart to improve the starting pitching depth in the upper minors.
- Introduces another player whose names starts with a J.
- Gives the other team a player who can contribute NOW.
Potential Benefits:
- Strengthens our future starting rotation in the years to come.
- Gives the other team a #2 or #3 pitcher who can reliably get the job done.
- Avoids a potential scenario in having to pay Wandy’s contract for naught if he somehow fails to live up to his contract in the next two years.
Potential Downsides:
There are virtually no downsides to a trade scenario like this one other than it might be potentially unrealistic. Wandy, even if he does well the next two years, will probably not significantly boost the team’s rating enough to draw people to the gates if the team is overall doing poorly compared to if Wandy was traded. Any chance we can grab a future top of the rotation pitcher by trading away unnecessary cargo is a chance we should take. If the other team wants more in return, we could perhaps trade away some of our excessive depth in the system, such as our depth of #5 starters, in lieu of sending the other team money.
Wandy + Money
for
Jacob Turner*
-—————————————-Wandy + Henry Sosa*
for
Jacob Turner*
-—————————————-*Other pitcher could be substituted in these roughly made examples.
In this potential scenario directly above, the Astros would avoid spending any money at all on Wandy for the next season. A difference of $1 or $2 million could be important to the Astros. But the Tigers would be close to their salary cap if Wandy was traded without money being sent along as well.
In any case, it is definitely interesting to see what will happen to Wandy this offseason.
BustaPozee - January 2, 2012
Another "J" name
I like that reason the best.
conroestro - January 2, 2012 via mobile
A possible downside
We suck worse than we already would. Yes, Wandy is probably gone at some point within the next year and we’ll probably suck regardless of whether he’s here or not, but we will be worse without him.
Now I know Tim De Block aka/and easier to type Timmy just did an article basically saying its not necessarily better to lose consistantly and pick higher in the draft, but I respectfully disagree. I think coupled with the change in organizational philosophy (even if I don’t know exactly what the new philosophy is besides “build through the draft”), a couple of consecutive years having our turn at the top of the draft will really jump start this franchise back to respectability. And with all of the talent we SHOULD acquire in the next two drafts, once we get good we should stay good.
Losing Wandy will hurt us now but I think it only helps us in the future. My question is, are we really content with swaping Wandy for one prospect? I know Wade isn’t here anymore and we don’t HAVE to go with quantity over quality (Bourn trade), but one prospect? If that’s all the attention we can get for Wandy, I’d like to wait for the trade deadline. Teams get really desperate when they think that one piece will get them to the playoffs.
Its Gonna Happen - January 3, 2012 via mobile
an old fight renewed
Turner was a name i do remember calling for last season before the cosart/philly deal….i still stand with a c. lee for turner deal…not straight up but in some form.
now for wandy… Florida wants him because hes a vet and hes from south america…it is hard for anyone to say that the Florida system is bad; they always restock and sign international kids and if you take a look at the 40 man roster and the AA and both A ball rosters you can find a 2 for 6 player deal that makes Astros fans happy…mainly because they will b young and most will not have a ‘looks like a bull pin arm’ tag attached to them.
tqp7 - January 3, 2012
Correction, by the way: Wandy is from the Dominican Republic.
clack - January 3, 2012
funny you tube video....
This little girl got the wrong baseball team merchandise for christmas.
This reminds me of the contests that Jimmy Kimmel had for videos of parents playing tricks on kids.
clack - January 3, 2012
I would cry too if I got a cubs pillow for X-mas!!!
Poor kid!
man07 - January 3, 2012 via mobile
Top prospect for Wandy
I think it’s very possible that the Astros could get a top pitching prospect in return for Wandy but it will all hinge on how much of Wandy’s contract they’re willing to take back. No one is going to give up a “Cosart” type prospect knowing that if Wandy doesn’t return to 2010 from they owe an average at best pitcher $13mil.
AstrosBill - January 3, 2012
Tigers link on Garza
Bless you Boys has this on Matt Garza, and frankly if they won’t trade Turner for Garza, they probably won’t toss him in for Rodriguez.
Frankly I think an innings eater like Myers is a better fit for the Tigers, with his 2012 salary and 2013 buyout, Myers has $14m guaranteed. Eat half of that and a team will pick him up.
AstroB - January 3, 2012
I think so to. I think with the fact that the Astros already stating that they would eat half of his contract then Myers at $7 million is a good option for a team that needs an innings eater. They could hold Wandy for the trade deadline and see if his value rises.
conroestro - January 3, 2012 via mobile
I saw Jakob Turner play in high school
His team defeated my nephew’s tea.
Not a big deal but my “very temporary” avatar is a picture I took of Jakob Turner
Joe in Birmingham - January 3, 2012
Just thought I'd say that ESPN is trying there hardest to promote Baggy's HOF status.
ccislanders - January 3, 2012
my grammar woes continue....*********THEIR!
ccislanders - January 3, 2012
wandy for turner
wandy is one of best lefthanders in nl….turner is an unknown…we dont have to give $$ and wandy… just straight across trade… a bargain for the tigers.. wandy was plagued by being on a rebuild team past two yrs…writer is full of it…. turner is what we would like to have…although we do not need him…we have a bunch of pitching prospects…hope mgt is ready to bargain hard…. in 2010 myers had 32 starts in a row where he went 6 innings or more….he would fit on and help any starting staff…mike h
Mike HJALM - January 4, 2012
jacob turner
whoa whoa….this guy is a bozo….8.58 e.r.a. got hammered in major league debuts…our prospects are better by a lot than he is…..dont trade wandy for some chump like this…mike h
Mike HJALM - January 4, 2012
You can’t really draw conclusions based on the kid’s first three starts in the majors. Greg Maddux had a 5.52 ERA is his first five starts in the majors (which was really high in 1986), and he seemed to work out alright.
clack - January 4, 2012
I think a one for one if we get a top pitching prospect back is exactly what we need for the future.
With Norris who would prob become the ace of the staff by the time they were all togeather with Lyles cosart and (insert top prospect comming back for wandy here) would be a good to maybe even great rotation for years to come.
astrosfan1989 - January 4, 2012
I thought Wandy's 2014 becomes vested if traded.
If I’m not mistaken, that would mean a club would be on the hook for 13 mil. I don’t see him being moved before the trade deadline 2013.
mam - January 4, 2012
That’s correct. I just re-read the article and notced that David used the option buy out. But the 2014 salary should be added if he is traded, due to vesting. So, a lot more cash would have to be sent in the trade.
clack - January 5, 2012
It’ll depend on the market at this year’s deadline. IF Wandy has a good 1st half and the races are all tight (meaning less sellers), he could be the best pitcher available. Obviously in that scenario he could fetch a very good return, even without sending a ton of cash with him.
Snake Diggity - January 5, 2012
The extra wild card will probably benefit the Astros this season considering the possibility that there will be more buyers at the deadline.
Timothy De Block - January 5, 2012
Very good point.
Snake Diggity - January 5, 2012
So is the extra playoff team in effect for ’12? I had heard that they wanted to.
MadMartygan - January 5, 2012
yes, as far as I know they will be playing a one game playoff between the two wild card teams starting this season. Hence the push for the Astros to move to the AL, because it wasn’t getting done without the move.
Timothy De Block - January 5, 2012
I was going to ask the same question. I was under the impression that MLB had not made a final decision on whether to have the extra wild card this year. The last I read, MLB was still considering it. But I could have missed something.
clack - January 5, 2012
Man, I hate Selig.
mike_o - January 5, 2012
Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski on Turner
here (gah Lynn Henning):
And:
AstroB - January 7, 2012
Would I trade Wandy for Turner straight up?
Absolutely. But are we going to get Turner for Wandy? Probably not, unless Luhnow and Crane change their minds and decide to eat half, if not more, of Wandy’s salary. Then we could get a top prospect for Wandy.
bone31crusher - January 9, 2012
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