With the rebuilding effort and 2013 move to the AL West, when are the Astros primed to compete? You do have some top prospects coming up in the next few years.
It’s kinda inconclusive about the competitiveness window though, as it doesn’t take into account the quality of the players. A ton of C-grade players may all hit their peaks in 2016, but they’ll still get crushed by other teams that have a handful of A or B-grade players.
Depends on whom is doing the ranking. He may be a Top 50 on some lists. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone rated him A-, but I think B+ probably is fair.
When we did the TCB prospect rankings, I ranked Cosart No. 1 and equivalent to A-. That’s partly because I’m not as high on Singleton as others. I may have rated Cosart too high, and in retrospect, a B+ may have been better. My recollection is that Cosart’s results were hurt pretty badly by his last start of the season (4 IP, 10 R, 8 ER). I wonder if the Astros pushed him for too many innings, considering his arm injury in the previous year.
He shouldn’t be graded as an A prospect. His stuff (or at least his fastball) could be graded that way, but if I learned anything from being so high on Paulino (pauses to fight back tears) its that good stuff doesn’t always translate to good results. I remember guys like Bourne and Pence being quoted as saying “Paulino had electric stuff” after hitting off of him in ST." Until his numbers start falling in line with his potential, I am learning not to get toooo ahead of myself.
He upgraded him to B after initially putting him all the way down at B-.
Cosart is somewhere at the borderline between B and B+ for me. I worry a lot about his mechanics and injury history more than anything else. On talent he would be a B+, maybe even a weak A- but there is reason for strong concern about his ability to remain healthy, which for me knocks him down to third among our top three prospects and keeps him out of the top 50 prospects in baseball.
Other people are also concerned that he hasn’t been dominant statistically as his stuff would indicate he should be. I’m not as worried about that—especially for pitchers, the minor leagues are very much about working on things more than achieving results, and it’s not like his results have been bad exactly. Last season he was looking to throw quality strikes and get groundballs so it’s natural his strikeout rate would drop.
I think it’s likely that he is working on pitches that are aimed at getting weak contact. I recall reading something about the Astros making him concentrate on his breaking pitches. His GB rate jumped up to 57% when he came to Corpus Christi. That’s one reason that Cosart’s lower K rate in AA didn’t bother me all that much—-there is a trade off to an extent between GB rate and K rate. A pitcher who throws high 90’s and gets that high a groundball rate has some serious potential.
FWIW, Sickels ranks the Astros’ farm system at No. 25. He ranks the Cardinals’ farm system at No. 5. Hopefully, Luhnow can move the Astros toward that position.
Sickels leaves room for a big jump after this season.
Payroll will have just as much impact on when Houston will be competitive again as player development. The two will probably go hand in hand, but having essentially no committments on the books after next season means that if payroll jumps drastically the team could be competitive sooner rather than later. Relying just on player development would mean a 2015-2016 time frame, but adding pieces via trade and free agency could move that up to 2013-2014.
We would need to hit on virtually all of the current round of young ML players, plus Cosart, Singleton, Clemens, Oberholtzer, Villar exceeding expectations in terms of pace of development. The reason it’s hard to aim for ‘13-14 is because rookies don’t usually perform well enough to be key components on a contender.
Ideally, the sweet spot is when most of your core young players are at their peak, which generally is age 27, give or take a couple of years on each side. That’s why a team like the Brewers required several years of their young players at the ML level before they became contenders. That’s one of the difficulties encountered by continual rebuilding teams like the Pirates—-it’s not easy to get all of your young players to reach their peak ages in the same time frame, both financially and physically. They end up trading players who are past their peak period or have become too expensive.
Well, and I think that’s why the Rays do what they do, striking early to get an extension for a young player which preferably lasts into his free agency years, at a cost which will be well below his actual value if he meets expectations. It’s trading a little bit of risk (that the player busts or winds up not being very good) for an extended window in which to add more pieces to go with that player.
If you have a bigger budget you may not need to do that as you can pay market value for two, three, even four impact level players. But even then I feel it is a strong tactic which helps so long as your front office is good at identifying talent.
Interesting stuff
It’s kinda inconclusive about the competitiveness window though, as it doesn’t take into account the quality of the players. A ton of C-grade players may all hit their peaks in 2016, but they’ll still get crushed by other teams that have a handful of A or B-grade players.
CRPerry13 - January 23, 2012
I think this case is difficult to gauge because of the high number of C prospects in the system
My 2015-2016 is based off of when the top 5 guys will all be up.
David Fung - January 23, 2012
Is Cosart A-?
I know Astros fans would love to think of him in those terms, but has he earned that ranking?
I don’t doubt he’s got that sort of potential, but…
AstroB - January 23, 2012
Depends on whom is doing the ranking. He may be a Top 50 on some lists. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone rated him A-, but I think B+ probably is fair.
clack - January 23, 2012
I wouldn’t put him as one at this point
Subber10 - January 23, 2012
When we did the TCB prospect rankings, I ranked Cosart No. 1 and equivalent to A-. That’s partly because I’m not as high on Singleton as others. I may have rated Cosart too high, and in retrospect, a B+ may have been better. My recollection is that Cosart’s results were hurt pretty badly by his last start of the season (4 IP, 10 R, 8 ER). I wonder if the Astros pushed him for too many innings, considering his arm injury in the previous year.
clack - January 23, 2012
As of right now
He shouldn’t be graded as an A prospect. His stuff (or at least his fastball) could be graded that way, but if I learned anything from being so high on Paulino (pauses to fight back tears) its that good stuff doesn’t always translate to good results. I remember guys like Bourne and Pence being quoted as saying “Paulino had electric stuff” after hitting off of him in ST." Until his numbers start falling in line with his potential, I am learning not to get toooo ahead of myself.
Its Gonna Happen - January 23, 2012 via mobile
Hey, Paulino was one of the MLB all stars who played against Japan this off-season. :)
clack - January 23, 2012
Rubbing salt in my wounds…
Its Gonna Happen - January 23, 2012 via mobile
I don't give anybody an A unless they look like they're an easily projectable all-star.
CRPerry13 - January 23, 2012
Sickels has him as a straight B
He upgraded him to B after initially putting him all the way down at B-.
Cosart is somewhere at the borderline between B and B+ for me. I worry a lot about his mechanics and injury history more than anything else. On talent he would be a B+, maybe even a weak A- but there is reason for strong concern about his ability to remain healthy, which for me knocks him down to third among our top three prospects and keeps him out of the top 50 prospects in baseball.
Other people are also concerned that he hasn’t been dominant statistically as his stuff would indicate he should be. I’m not as worried about that—especially for pitchers, the minor leagues are very much about working on things more than achieving results, and it’s not like his results have been bad exactly. Last season he was looking to throw quality strikes and get groundballs so it’s natural his strikeout rate would drop.
OremLK - January 23, 2012
I wouldn't argue a straight B
Plus velocity with descent control but has injury concerns and unimpressive stats. He deserves a B but has serious upside if he can get it to click.
Its Gonna Happen - January 23, 2012 via mobile
I'm wondering whether Cosart's K/9 numbers aren't in part (in part)
down to some pitching coaches tinkering constantly with what his pitch repertoire should and shouldn’t be.
I’ve heard that from quite a few people, just throwing it in there.
AstroB - January 23, 2012
I think it’s likely that he is working on pitches that are aimed at getting weak contact. I recall reading something about the Astros making him concentrate on his breaking pitches. His GB rate jumped up to 57% when he came to Corpus Christi. That’s one reason that Cosart’s lower K rate in AA didn’t bother me all that much—-there is a trade off to an extent between GB rate and K rate. A pitcher who throws high 90’s and gets that high a groundball rate has some serious potential.
clack - January 23, 2012
On a happy note:
JD Martinez dwarfs Manny Ramirez. Astros County posted a pic after the two apparently had BP together.
Its Gonna Happen - January 23, 2012 via mobile
Astros Farm Ranking
FWIW, Sickels ranks the Astros’ farm system at No. 25. He ranks the Cardinals’ farm system at No. 5. Hopefully, Luhnow can move the Astros toward that position.
clack - January 23, 2012
Link
clack - January 23, 2012
I would add that Sickels seems a bit more pessimistic than most about the Astros' prospects
He does note that the guys he gives C+ have big upside, though.
OremLK - January 23, 2012
yes, he seems more pessimistic than most about the Astros type of prospect.
clack - January 24, 2012
Sickels leaves room for a big jump after this season.
Payroll will have just as much impact on when Houston will be competitive again as player development. The two will probably go hand in hand, but having essentially no committments on the books after next season means that if payroll jumps drastically the team could be competitive sooner rather than later. Relying just on player development would mean a 2015-2016 time frame, but adding pieces via trade and free agency could move that up to 2013-2014.
Snake Diggity - January 25, 2012 via mobile
Unlikely, but possible
We would need to hit on virtually all of the current round of young ML players, plus Cosart, Singleton, Clemens, Oberholtzer, Villar exceeding expectations in terms of pace of development. The reason it’s hard to aim for ‘13-14 is because rookies don’t usually perform well enough to be key components on a contender.
OremLK - January 25, 2012
Ideally, the sweet spot is when most of your core young players are at their peak, which generally is age 27, give or take a couple of years on each side. That’s why a team like the Brewers required several years of their young players at the ML level before they became contenders. That’s one of the difficulties encountered by continual rebuilding teams like the Pirates—-it’s not easy to get all of your young players to reach their peak ages in the same time frame, both financially and physically. They end up trading players who are past their peak period or have become too expensive.
clack - January 25, 2012
Well, and I think that’s why the Rays do what they do, striking early to get an extension for a young player which preferably lasts into his free agency years, at a cost which will be well below his actual value if he meets expectations. It’s trading a little bit of risk (that the player busts or winds up not being very good) for an extended window in which to add more pieces to go with that player.
If you have a bigger budget you may not need to do that as you can pay market value for two, three, even four impact level players. But even then I feel it is a strong tactic which helps so long as your front office is good at identifying talent.
OremLK - January 25, 2012
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