According to Alyson Footer the Astros have signed Zack Duke to a minor league contract. The lefty spent 2011 with the Diamondbacks and posted a 4.93 ERA last season.
Gives us a candidate to pitch at the back of the rotation, with lots of big league experience (but still young enough to conceivably offer some upside). I do hope this doesn’t hurt Kyle Weiland’s chances at a rotation spot, but more competition should push everybody to do their best this spring.
It’s not a big deal either way. You’re always going to have some fringe guys pitching for you in spring training. They might want Lyles to refine some things in AAA or somebody gets hurt. It’s not inconceivable that Harrell, Sosa and Aneury all blow in the spring. If he can’t make our rotation, Duke would probably be likely to pitch in our AAA rotation. I’m just going to think of it as a camp body right now.
I’ve always liked Zach Duke, but he has battled arm injuries throughout his ML career. Duke has a nice groundball rate for a lefty, but, doesn’t strike out many batters (never has—-even when he was a highly regarded prospect). He can be sort of a poor man’s Maholm. A guy like Dallas Keuchel needs to pay attention to Duke to find out how he can become a major leaguer. I was expecting the Astros to get around to signing some rehab projects and other rebound veteran starters. Even if Wandy and Brett aren’t traded, the Astros will still need at least 7 or 8 starting pitchers over the course of the year. The Astros’ depth at starting pitching is fine in quantity but shallow in depth. It’s also possible that Duke can be used out of the bullpen if necessary.
If you want to look for some positives in this signng: Duke’s FIP last year was 3.99; Bill James and Rotochamps forecast a FIP of 4.37 and 4.45, respectively, for 2012. Since he doesn’t K many hitters, why the FIPs better than his ERA? He walks few batters and, like a lot of GB pitchers, he is stingy on the HR.
I see some similarity in that both are scrap heap lefty starting pitchers. But I like the fundamentals for Duke a lot better. I was skeptical of RRS from the start, because his FIP was bad, even in his good seasons, and the combination of flyball lefty and walk-prone is usually not the road to success.
1. Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron pointed out that scrap heap veteran starting pitchers were the biggest free agent bargains last year. The scrap heap pool averaged +1.8 WAR per roster spot taken, pitching at a cost/win rate of one half the average starting pitcher.
2. I’m starting the get a feeling that the front office puts a premium on pitcher groundball rate. That’s based on a small sample of decisions—-acquiring Weiland and Duke, making an offer to Ayala. But it would be consistent with the Cardinals’ philosophy.
And that really makes sense given our ballpark and the fact that we are going to the AL. Dont you want groundball pitchers pitching to these HR hitters. If they cant get it up they cant hit it out. Plus with the Landry boxes it makes sense to want ground ball pitchers.
and I would add that they are seemingly paying attention to keeping walks down….but the inability to strike anyone out is something that keeps Duke from being anything but a #5 starter at best IMO. I was hoping for more of a low risk/high reward type signing but the pitching market is weak for those types. Basically it is Brandon Webb, and maybe Brad Penny or Rich Harden.
Yeah, Duke averages roughly 2BB/9 and 4 K/9. So good control but not the stuff needed to fool batters. Also it is important to point out last year he had a .300 BA with 2 HRs with 20AB, they may want to pitch him 5th and hit him 5th as well.
Please God. If he signs for under $8M, it’s the steal of the year. Make him the ace, get him his milestones, then flip him at the deadline so he can get a shot at a ring ad bring I another top prospect or two.
PGP at DRaysBay took a funny sarcastic approach to the batting average stat if you wanted to read it follow the link below. Some of the comments were pretty good.
I agree with the link about Batting Average. I think I did a similar correlation analysis in a story at TCB early this year when people wanted Sanchez as a starter because he didn’t strike out much and had (then) a high batting average.
But I wouldn’t want to eliminate the statistic. Batting average has a lot of different uses. If you don’t have BB%, comparing OBP and BA tells you something about walk tendencies. Compare K rate with BA tells you something about contact ability. Batting average isn’t a useless statistic, it’s just overvalued by a lot of fans.
That’s a great point, clack, that AVG can give you additional information when viewed in combination with other numbers. I think that sometimes gets overlooked.
Seems like a decent move.
Gives us a candidate to pitch at the back of the rotation, with lots of big league experience (but still young enough to conceivably offer some upside). I do hope this doesn’t hurt Kyle Weiland’s chances at a rotation spot, but more competition should push everybody to do their best this spring.
Stupendous Man - January 27, 2012 via mobile
I don’t think it’s gonna hurt any of the younger guys chances.
MadMartygan - January 27, 2012
Too much competition can only lead to good things
Its Gonna Happen - January 27, 2012 via mobile
haha what?
Don’t we have enough fringe rotation starters?
AstroB - January 27, 2012
That’s what my first reaction was too. It sure would be nice if a trade market existed for Wandy or Brett.
conroestro - January 27, 2012 via mobile
It’s not a big deal either way. You’re always going to have some fringe guys pitching for you in spring training. They might want Lyles to refine some things in AAA or somebody gets hurt. It’s not inconceivable that Harrell, Sosa and Aneury all blow in the spring. If he can’t make our rotation, Duke would probably be likely to pitch in our AAA rotation. I’m just going to think of it as a camp body right now.
MadMartygan - January 27, 2012
True. Minor league deal, so not a significant move.
conroestro - January 27, 2012 via mobile
I might have to drop by the Chronicle website to read the reactions on this one.
MadMartygan - January 27, 2012
My god man!!
please, for your own sanity, don’t do it!!! Those people are all kinds of ignorant.
chilam balam - January 28, 2012
I’ve always liked Zach Duke, but he has battled arm injuries throughout his ML career. Duke has a nice groundball rate for a lefty, but, doesn’t strike out many batters (never has—-even when he was a highly regarded prospect). He can be sort of a poor man’s Maholm. A guy like Dallas Keuchel needs to pay attention to Duke to find out how he can become a major leaguer. I was expecting the Astros to get around to signing some rehab projects and other rebound veteran starters. Even if Wandy and Brett aren’t traded, the Astros will still need at least 7 or 8 starting pitchers over the course of the year. The Astros’ depth at starting pitching is fine in quantity but shallow in depth. It’s also possible that Duke can be used out of the bullpen if necessary.
clack - January 27, 2012
that should read “shallow in quality.”
clack - January 27, 2012
If you want to look for some positives in this signng: Duke’s FIP last year was 3.99; Bill James and Rotochamps forecast a FIP of 4.37 and 4.45, respectively, for 2012. Since he doesn’t K many hitters, why the FIPs better than his ERA? He walks few batters and, like a lot of GB pitchers, he is stingy on the HR.
clack - January 27, 2012
I don’t really see a downside to it.
MadMartygan - January 27, 2012
Yeah, worst case scenario he’s AAA depth. Wonder what his LOOGY potential is?
jmike - January 28, 2012
Duke’s splits last year:
vs LHB 3.45 FIP
vs.RHB 4.17 FIP
Duke’s BABIP was .339. That is normally a good sign for potential regression toward a .300 BABIP….which could mean that was unlucky on hits allowed.
Duke also had a lower ERA when he pitched outside of the D-Backs’ home field, which is above average for offense.
clack - January 29, 2012
At least Bud Norris can rest easy this year.
Wasn’t it Duke who hit that homer off him last year?
hunterpencefan - January 27, 2012
It is a shame..
that Ed Wade is not around he could have gotten 7.5M for 2 years!! I agree young, experienced, and potential upside.
jano4 - January 27, 2012
I like this move because he isn’t Ryan Rowland-Smith and because this is a minor league deal.
BustaPozee - January 27, 2012
I was going to say that Duke is this year’s version of Ryan Rowland-Smith.
OremLK - January 27, 2012
Hopefully, Duke has better results. Like making the major league roster at some point for one thing.
Hal J - January 27, 2012
But Duke is probably cheaper. RR-S was guaranteed $1 million and he never even cracked the roster.
BustaPozee - January 27, 2012
I see some similarity in that both are scrap heap lefty starting pitchers. But I like the fundamentals for Duke a lot better. I was skeptical of RRS from the start, because his FIP was bad, even in his good seasons, and the combination of flyball lefty and walk-prone is usually not the road to success.
clack - January 27, 2012
At one point Duke was a very good pitcher, RRS was never even an above average pitcher.
Astro#1fan - January 27, 2012
Two observations....
1. Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron pointed out that scrap heap veteran starting pitchers were the biggest free agent bargains last year. The scrap heap pool averaged +1.8 WAR per roster spot taken, pitching at a cost/win rate of one half the average starting pitcher.
2. I’m starting the get a feeling that the front office puts a premium on pitcher groundball rate. That’s based on a small sample of decisions—-acquiring Weiland and Duke, making an offer to Ayala. But it would be consistent with the Cardinals’ philosophy.
clack - January 27, 2012
And that really makes sense given our ballpark and the fact that we are going to the AL. Dont you want groundball pitchers pitching to these HR hitters. If they cant get it up they cant hit it out. Plus with the Landry boxes it makes sense to want ground ball pitchers.
Astro#1fan - January 27, 2012
aheem..
I believe you mean Landry’s Crawfish boxes, no?
chilam balam - January 28, 2012
I do like the emphasis on groundball pitchers
and I would add that they are seemingly paying attention to keeping walks down….but the inability to strike anyone out is something that keeps Duke from being anything but a #5 starter at best IMO. I was hoping for more of a low risk/high reward type signing but the pitching market is weak for those types. Basically it is Brandon Webb, and maybe Brad Penny or Rich Harden.
Crzycjunx76 - January 28, 2012
Yeah, Duke averages roughly 2BB/9 and 4 K/9. So good control but not the stuff needed to fool batters. Also it is important to point out last year he had a .300 BA with 2 HRs with 20AB, they may want to pitch him 5th and hit him 5th as well.
Astro#1fan - January 28, 2012
Yay?
CRPerry13 - January 27, 2012
Hopefully this means that Wandy and Myers
are close to being dealt.
Well i can only hope.
Neil Leininger - January 27, 2012
I've always like Mr. Duke. Seems like a great person.
That’s all I got, though.
ccislanders - January 27, 2012 via mobile
astros in the mix for oswalt according to mlbtraderumors
lawson3 - January 27, 2012 via mobile
Please God. If he signs for under $8M, it’s the steal of the year. Make him the ace, get him his milestones, then flip him at the deadline so he can get a shot at a ring ad bring I another top prospect or two.
Snake Diggity - January 27, 2012 via mobile
Saw that on twitter. Hopefully we sign him. If we do, we better include a nice option and then flip him at his best.
I’d likey that.
I feel like his back won’t hold up, it’s been abused so much, I can see him straining right off the bat to begin the season.
eh, mixed emotions.
ccislanders - January 27, 2012 via mobile
i say sign roy for 10mil, edwin for 8
And just be like ‘hey yall didn’t want to trade for our pitchers, well now we have them all, who wants em!’
lawson3 - January 27, 2012 via mobile
Thar
ccislanders - January 28, 2012 via mobile
Thart
ccislanders - January 28, 2012 via mobile
That would be great!!
Shoot, Jackson for Hudson? I doubt we’d get that like the D’Backs did, but still.
ccislanders - January 28, 2012 via mobile
Batting average
PGP at DRaysBay took a funny sarcastic approach to the batting average stat if you wanted to read it follow the link below. Some of the comments were pretty good.
http://mobile.draysbay.com/2012/1/27/2731110/why-do-we-care#comments
conroestro - January 28, 2012 via mobile
do you think we could get BA dropped as a statistic completely?
AstroB - January 29, 2012
I agree with the link about Batting Average. I think I did a similar correlation analysis in a story at TCB early this year when people wanted Sanchez as a starter because he didn’t strike out much and had (then) a high batting average.
But I wouldn’t want to eliminate the statistic. Batting average has a lot of different uses. If you don’t have BB%, comparing OBP and BA tells you something about walk tendencies. Compare K rate with BA tells you something about contact ability. Batting average isn’t a useless statistic, it’s just overvalued by a lot of fans.
clack - January 29, 2012
Sanchez had a great fortnight in April
but it was all batting average through singles.
AstroB - January 29, 2012
That’s a great point, clack, that AVG can give you additional information when viewed in combination with other numbers. I think that sometimes gets overlooked.
AstroAndy - January 29, 2012
I remember years ago thinking that this guy was going to be pretty good.
Whoops.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
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