Jim Callis of Baseball America took some time to talk to the Farmstros Village today about the Astros' #1 pick possibilities and more. If you have 15 minutes, give it a listen.
Very interesting. I agree with most of what Callis said. I do find it curious how high so many analysts are on Marrero. Strong candidate to be a first round pick, sure. Strong candidate to be picked first overall? I’m not seeing it. He doesn’t walk enough and doesn’t have enough power potential. His college walk rate is actually atrocious. Since most of his offensive value will come from getting on base, that’s worrying to me. He needs to be a perennial .300 hitter not to be an offensive liability. Yeah, he has the defensive ability to be a gold glover at shortstop, and that coupled with his contact skills makes him a pretty safe bet to be an everyday regular, but I want a bit more than that from the first overall pick.
He looks like the shortstop version of Jason Castro to me, basically (Castro walked more but projected to hit for lower average, but the OBP projections were similar).
Thing I found odd was that he thinks we can get a first overall pick to sign for 5 million. I don’t think we could with the rumored slot being 7.3ish. An agent won’t know the exact amount but he’ll know the approximate price range and i doubt we’ll be able to save approximatley 2 million on the first overall pick
While that makes sense because of the talent level, but I doubt that works practically, at least with an agent that worth a darn. An agent knows approximately how much Bud Selig recommends for each slot and will begin his negotiations above that.
And Baseball America called Springer’s bonus “jaw dropping” at the time. That’s because Springer signed for over slot at his position ($1.7 million). Springer waited until the last 10 minutes before the deadline to sign, so that higher picks could sign and set the benchmarks below them. Saying that Springer could have been the first pick this year doesn’t mean that what he signed for in 2011 has much relevance on what the first pick will sign for in 2012.
I think the first round signing costs will be driven overwhelmingly by the slot dollars. I think the Astros would have great difficulty getting the first pick to sign below slot. An agent who can’t get his client the slot amount probably will be branded as doing a poor job, and an agent’s goal probably will be to get more than the slot dollars, so that he can use that as example for future prospective clients. If the Astros sign the first pick for $2 million below slot, I would worry that it would solely be due to making below-slot signability the primary criteria for the pick.
Also keep in mind that all of the slot amounts are substantially higher than last year. In other words, the expectation is that teams that stay within slot will spend substantially more on the draft than they did in past years. That’s why the player’s association was willing to accept the new cap system.
That makes more sense than what I thought he said.
I thought he was saying that Springer would have been in consideration for the top 5, and Springer actually was in consideration for the top 5 at this time last year. But never #1 overall.
Nice job on the interview. Those new draft rules make my head hurt. Unbelievable that it of course comes into play for our year to draft first.
MadMartygan - February 1, 2012
Thanks
Glad you liked the interview. It was really educational to be able to talk with Callis. Thanks to technology and his cooperation was able to share it.
farm_stros - February 1, 2012
Great interview
Very interesting. I agree with most of what Callis said. I do find it curious how high so many analysts are on Marrero. Strong candidate to be a first round pick, sure. Strong candidate to be picked first overall? I’m not seeing it. He doesn’t walk enough and doesn’t have enough power potential. His college walk rate is actually atrocious. Since most of his offensive value will come from getting on base, that’s worrying to me. He needs to be a perennial .300 hitter not to be an offensive liability. Yeah, he has the defensive ability to be a gold glover at shortstop, and that coupled with his contact skills makes him a pretty safe bet to be an everyday regular, but I want a bit more than that from the first overall pick.
He looks like the shortstop version of Jason Castro to me, basically (Castro walked more but projected to hit for lower average, but the OBP projections were similar).
OremLK - February 2, 2012
Thing I found odd was that he thinks we can get a first overall pick to sign for 5 million. I don’t think we could with the rumored slot being 7.3ish. An agent won’t know the exact amount but he’ll know the approximate price range and i doubt we’ll be able to save approximatley 2 million on the first overall pick
Subber10 - February 2, 2012
He thinks that because it's a weak draft class
He said George Springer would have been in the running for the best prospect in this class.
OremLK - February 2, 2012
Springer got about $2.5M by the way
OremLK - February 2, 2012
While that makes sense because of the talent level, but I doubt that works practically, at least with an agent that worth a darn. An agent knows approximately how much Bud Selig recommends for each slot and will begin his negotiations above that.
Subber10 - February 2, 2012
And Baseball America called Springer’s bonus “jaw dropping” at the time. That’s because Springer signed for over slot at his position ($1.7 million). Springer waited until the last 10 minutes before the deadline to sign, so that higher picks could sign and set the benchmarks below them. Saying that Springer could have been the first pick this year doesn’t mean that what he signed for in 2011 has much relevance on what the first pick will sign for in 2012.
I think the first round signing costs will be driven overwhelmingly by the slot dollars. I think the Astros would have great difficulty getting the first pick to sign below slot. An agent who can’t get his client the slot amount probably will be branded as doing a poor job, and an agent’s goal probably will be to get more than the slot dollars, so that he can use that as example for future prospective clients. If the Astros sign the first pick for $2 million below slot, I would worry that it would solely be due to making below-slot signability the primary criteria for the pick.
Also keep in mind that all of the slot amounts are substantially higher than last year. In other words, the expectation is that teams that stay within slot will spend substantially more on the draft than they did in past years. That’s why the player’s association was willing to accept the new cap system.
clack - February 3, 2012
That makes more sense than what I thought he said.
I thought he was saying that Springer would have been in consideration for the top 5, and Springer actually was in consideration for the top 5 at this time last year. But never #1 overall.
Matt McDougle - February 2, 2012
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