Just mulling over my thoughts before Spring Training her and wanted to test the water of the Astros faithful and post this poll. Just wanted to see where you guys think we are at before Spring Training since spring is every cellar dwellar's most hopeful time of the year. Anybody here think that the Astros can compete before 2020? This is my first fan post so tell me how I did thanks. Go Stros!!!!!!!!!!!
0 recs | 45 comments
here we go
could be a long year.
Astro Freak - February 13, 2012
60
Matt McDougle - February 13, 2012
Honestly? Better than last year.
That may sound surprising with the loss of Pence and Bourn, but I don’t see it as impossible. I would peg us for 63 wins, no 100 losses for us this year! lol I think we have a lot of low risk, decent reward guys to pick from in spring training, and I hope the right ones get picked.
vicious-peanut - February 13, 2012
I think there are some forces pushing in the direction of a better record. There is a normal regression for high loss teams, plus the Astros may have regression in their Pythag, given that their runs scored and runs allowed were 6 – 7 games better than their actual record. I think the bullpen could be a big difference maker for the ultimate record, and predicting bullpen performance can be a fool’s errand.
clack - February 14, 2012
I'm bugged that Clint Barmes won't be at short
I worry his absence will cost Astros 1 or 2 extra runs A GAME- That’ll lead to a lot of extra losses.
Joe in Birmingham - February 15, 2012
‘Clubhouse Confidential," the sabermetric oriented show on the MLB Network made the Pirates’ signing of Clint Barmes one of the six best off season moves of the year. At least the Astros get a supplemental round draft pick, as a result.
clack - February 16, 2012
62
Give or take 4
Silentjay - February 14, 2012
I was looking for 30-40, but it wasn't a choice.
CRPerry13 - February 14, 2012
65 wins, +/- 15. There’s a lot of sway in the record projection when you factor in this team’s youth, injury history, and luck. I wouldn’t be surprised by 50 wins, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they get close to 80. The goal should just be an improvement over last year, and avoid 100 losses.
Snake Diggity - February 14, 2012
You really wouldn't be surprised if they were nearly a .500 team?
SandalsNoPants - February 18, 2012
65 wins
Almost certainly another top 3 pick in the draft, though maybe not the number one pick.
OremLK - February 14, 2012
I think that’s probably a pretty good guess. In the grand scheme of things another top 3 pick in the draft would be good to have. Hopefully after this upcoming season the Astros wont see to many more top picks in the draft.
conroestro - February 14, 2012 via mobile
I think that’s a reasonable number. Not a 100 loss season at least.
jmike - February 15, 2012
I am going to say 64
We have a lot of question marks, and on the surface it would seem that our record could vary wildly. Of course having options at a bunch of positions means we are less likely to see an awful player get a ton of play on this roster, either a vet or a rookie will be waiting in AAA to take the place of anyone who is abysmally bad. Of course that works both ways, since we have vets on minor league deals and AAAA players to take their place, if any one of our vets over-performs significantly we stand a good chance of moving them for more rebuilding pieces.
We could touch on 100 losses this season, but if we do it means we have likely moved quite a few players at the deadline and have improved our future standing.
Crzycjunx76 - February 14, 2012
68
Uncle Chris - February 14, 2012
my bet is 60 on the dot
were i forced to take the over under on that, id say under though. i think they’ll be picking first again in 2013, which is probably for the best.
kyuss94 - February 14, 2012
A pretty fair season preview from Jonah Keri
I think we are slowly getting these guys on our side. There was a minimum of jokes and they were reserved for the previous regime. http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/17320/2012-mlb-season-preview-houston-astros
MadMartygan - February 15, 2012
If those Bill James projections end up being accurate, I will be pleased. Basically Schafer is the only player projected to put up a terrible offensive performance, and the rotation would feature 3 guys putting up #2-#3 type ERAs, with the 2 other guys not being completely abysmal.
A 740 OPS for Altuve is great. Martinez putting up 800+ OPS would also rock. And getting a 780+ OPS out of your SS is really good for a team as bad as Houston.
Snake Diggity - February 15, 2012
I was thinking the same thing. James is known to be on the optimistic side, but anything approaching that is going to be a good thing for Houston.
MadMartygan - February 15, 2012
Although James appears to be VERY optimistic after looking at his projections for STL and PIT.
Snake Diggity - February 15, 2012
The general take seems to be that James is optimistic on hitters, but not pitchers. He may have better numbers for some pitchers compared to ZIPS or Roto but it’s due to differing players evaluations rather than general optimism. We don’t know why James is optimistic on hitters, because we don’t know exactly how the projections are done. But I have seen people surmise that James maintains too high a scoring environment. As you probably know, league scoring has been on the decline. James’ projections may be biased due to relying on too long a period to establish league scoring environment or perhaps no updating the scoring environment frequently enough.
clack - February 15, 2012
Maybe his projection system for hitters is still in the steroid era?
jmike - February 15, 2012
If James’ projections overstate hitters because the projections have too high a run scoring environment, that implies that the pitching projections are pessimistic. Keri’s article mentions that the James’ projections are optimistic, but doesn’t mention that the pitching projections are pessimistic.
clack - February 16, 2012
As I recall, ZIPS views Lowrie as the second best hitter (after Carlos Lee) on the team. James projects Lowrie as the 3d best hitter on the team (behind Lee and Martinez). Those are great expectations for a shortstop.
clack - February 15, 2012
And another Grantland piece.
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7579203/the-blueprint-how-fix-houston-astros
MadMartygan - February 15, 2012
75 wins
“Anybody here think the Astros can compete before 2020?” Before 2020? Serouisly?? The job that Luhnow is doing and if everything goes right, we could be WS Champs by 2015! If everything goes right THIS year and Magoo Mills doesn’t screw up like last year, we could be a 73-78 win team.
jaltuve27 - February 16, 2012
We have smart people running things. I say we get good by 2014.
MadMartygan - February 17, 2012
The smarter people might actually delay it a bit
if they decide that the first “salvo” of talent is not going to get it done and there is not enough talent density in the minors we might see some selling of young players who have younger more talented guys behind them in order to bolster our overall talent level… it might delay our return to competitiveness… say to 2016 or so… but it also might make our peak higher and more sustainable.
Of course we currently have no contracts that extend to 2015 so we will have plenty of space if we need it.
Crzycjunx76 - February 17, 2012
Very good points. I think that is in the model of KC or Oakland and other small market clubs. As much as it gets said, Houston does not have to operate like a small market club.
MadMartygan - February 18, 2012
As a middle market club
we could hold on to some of the best guys while cycling out the good to average every day players and role players around them.
Crzycjunx76 - February 18, 2012
I’d say we can sustain a top 1/3 payroll. Upper middle market and it can rise as the team gets better. That’s what we were, and Drayton wasn’t really a big spender.
MadMartygan - February 18, 2012
For what it’s worth, MLB classifies the Astros as a large market team. I’m not sure what the metrics are for that classification, but i assume that it is based on population, media market, etc. For that reason, the Astros will never be eligible to be a net recipient of revenue sharing or a beneficiary of the competitive balance lottery.
clack - February 18, 2012
I’d very much consider us large market over small market. I believe that Crane thinks that Houston will sustain a fairly large payroll once the corner is turned.
MadMartygan - February 18, 2012
I don’t believe it’s a stretch to say Houston can sustain payrolls in the upper second tier behind. Chicago(NL), the NY’s, Boston and the LA’s.
MadMartygan - February 18, 2012
I feel we're right at the borderline
I’d probably lean toward “middle market”, but it’s all semantics anyway.
I feel like we ought to be able to support a payroll in the low $100M range. $110M at the highest (not adjusted for inflation whenever we become competitive again).
OremLK - February 19, 2012
I feel about the same...
Crzycjunx76 - February 19, 2012
I think we can get similar to Philly, but without Ruben Amaro being our GM. I think our cash will go further even if they do spend a bit more.
MadMartygan - February 19, 2012
I realize you play for the team, Mr. Altuve, but where are all these new wins coming from?
SandalsNoPants - February 18, 2012
62 wins
SandalsNoPants - February 18, 2012
Kevin Gausman's first start...
I will undoubtedly see a lot of him since im and LSU fan. Of course I would rather Lucas Giolito be the pick, but if we are intent on a college arm then I think Gausman deserves to be in the conversation.
Crzycjunx76 - February 18, 2012
Forgot the link
Crzycjunx76 - February 18, 2012
http://www.lsusports.net//ViewContent.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=5200&CONTENT_ID=185814
Crzycjunx76 - February 18, 2012
Clicking on your link just opens this thread. Copy and paste worked though.
http://www.lsusports.net//ViewContent.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=5200&CONTENT_ID=185814
Hal J - February 18, 2012
Fixed.
Hal J - February 18, 2012
70-75 wins would be a GREAT year for us....
AstrosBill - February 23, 2012
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