There are some times when playing for a bad team provides fantasy gold. Players get a chance to put up good numbers for a bad team and still fly under the radar, which is the stuff with which fantasy championships are paved.
The Houston Astros are in a tough situation for just that reason. While they are definitely going to be in the bottom half of the league (and probably the bottom third), there aren't a ton of players we can count on to have solid seasons. That's why, if you're looking for the Astro to provide the best value for your fantasy team, look to the rotation.
Bud Norris will not win many games. That's half the battle in fantasy leagues, no matter whether they are rotisserie or head-to-head. Norris only won 6 games last season and the team leader (Wandy) only won 11. However, just a season before that, Brett Myers led the team with 14 victories.
If Norris starts 31 games again this season and the Astros lose the same number of games they did a year ago, he's got an average chance to win 10 games. If the Astros improve even slightly, that'd increase his chances to win 12-14 games with a good strikeout rate and a lowering walk rate.
All that works together to make Norris a fairly intriguing guy in the mid to late rounds. If you wait on starting pitching, he can add value to a staff while stocking up on position players in the early rounds. In the Hardball Times mock draft a while back, Norris went in the 20th round, but anywhere after the 15th or 16th round probably makes sense for his value.
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0 recs | 4 comments
Yes, Wandy and Bud would be my two top picks on the Astros, and I like Bud the best because I think he is in the sweet spot in terms of age as it related to improvement. Now, Wandy may be the best pick if you think he will be traded to a contender and pick up more wins with a better team. If I were participating in a fantasy draft (particularly with non-Astros fans), I think Wandy may be overvalued and Bud undervalued.
clack - February 15, 2012
Lowrie might be an interesting sleeper, especially in NL only.
MadMartygan - February 15, 2012
yes. particularly since the shortstop position isn’t the deepest area for fantasy draft.
clack - February 15, 2012
I think this is the year
That Norris becomes the ace of this staff. If he can lower his era a bit and get into the 200 inning mark I think it will show that he is ready to be the leader of the rotation for years to come.
astrosfan1989 - February 18, 2012 via iPhone app
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