Last week, I had a little fun with Baseball Prospectus' 2012 PECOTA foreshadowing system. I'm calling it a foreshadowing system because the word forecasting implies something a little more definite. After all, meteorologists are forecasters, and since they are infallibly nostradomic, it would be improper to apply the word to a subject as nebulous and chaotic as professional baseball.
In all seriousness (or at least more seriousness), I would like to say that I am in awe of the amount of labor and thought that goes into the creation of PECOTA every season. It can't be easy to build. With thousands of players to account for, with each one's likelihood to do, well, whatever it is that they might do, there is a staggering amount of data to process, and to be snide without at least tipping one's hat would be unfair.
PECOTA does one thing extremely well: It gives people a broad picture about the abilities of a player to impact his team. It is a guide through the future season; a guide who knows vaguely what direction we are heading, but not the names of the roads to be taken.
But PECOTA needs numbers to present that overview, and the numbers are where the fun is. So after the jump, I will continue my good-spirited and well-meaning mockery by examining how PECOTA views the Astros' pitching staff and its overall win-loss record.
Note: I want to point out the totally awesome photo of Wesley Wright. I don't know who Julio Cortez is, but that's a really fine example of photographication, and he deserves kudos for taking this one.
Like any good engineer, I prefer to present my data in the form of a bullet list. So here is the Astros' pitching staff, according to PECOTA.
- The lowest ERA on the team will belong to Brandon Lyon (4.01) Even more shocking, PECOTA thinks Lyon will manage a staggering 38 innings pitched. That's like 39 more innings than last season.
- Wandy is the only pitcher (besides Lyon) with a FRA (Fair Runs Allowed) lower than 5.00. FRA is like FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Don't ask me to explain the difference, but it uses the same scale as ERA, so it suffices to say anything over 5.00 is bad.
- PECOTA projects 1,444 and 1/3 innings pitched by Astros pitchers this season. According to my handy calculator, that equals 160.5 games. That means the Astros will forfeit 1 game and have another rained out after 5 innings. And, there will be no extra innings games.
- Most likely to break out: Jordan Lyles (32%), Fernando Rodriguez (30%), Bud Norris (29%)
- Most likely to beat PECOTA projection: Bud Norris (67%, 4.77 ERA), Jordan Lyles (66%, 5.29 ERA), Zack Duke (61%, 5.53 ERA), Fernando Rodriguez (59%, 5.59 ERA).
- Most likely to collapse and fall below PECOTA projection: Brandon Lyon (41%, 4.01 ERA), Sergio Escalona (36%, 5.04 ERA), Juan Abreu (34%, 4.98 ERA)
Projected Pitcher Records (Starters):
Bud Norris: 7-17
Jordan Lyles: 4-10
PECOTA also finds comparable players (or comparable player-seasons) and lists the top three. Here are some fun players that are compared to the 2012 Astros:
Brett Myers: Don Drysdale
J.A. Happ:
Chris Narveson (I wouldn't complain), Steve Carlton (I REALLY wouldn't complain)
Jordan Lyles:
Zack Greinke (Awesome), Larry Dierker (Super-Awesome!)
Finally, I added up the projected runs scored and runs allowed by the Astros according to PECOTA, and applied them to Bill James' calculation for
Pythogorean Win Expectation.
Runs Scored: 601
Runs Allowed: 782
Pythag Record: 0.371
Pythag W/L: 60-102
I don't think it's outside of the realm of reason to say the Astros will lose 102 games, though I know a certain group of writers and readers that are much more hopeful than that.
With any luck, PECOTA will be no more accurate than Chuck the Weatherman, and the Astros will have sunshine and blue skies (metaphorically speaking) for all of 2012.
P.S. Forgive all the parentheses (there were far too many in this post for me to call myself a writer without snickering), but my internal commentary just spilled out onto the keyboard without notice. I'll turn the Extraneous Punctuation Filter (EPF) back on for my next article.
A 102 loss bottom line isn’t unrealistic. But some of those pitching projections strike me as seriously pessimistic. Sounds like PECOTA doesn’t like any of the Astros’ pitchers (other than Brandon Lyon!).
clack - February 23, 2012
I realized my Pythag wins calculations are using Earned Runs instead of Runs (which PECOTA doesn’t project). So theoretically, the Astros’ record is going to be worse than 60-102.
I dunno. It’s really difficult to lose 100 games.
CRPerry13 - February 23, 2012
Why is PECOTA so low on Wandy?
OremLK - February 23, 2012
i assume PECOTA applies a steep aging curve to Wandy.
clack - February 23, 2012
That was my guess, as well…but unless he has a sudden name and age change, I think we’re alright
linkxmalon - February 23, 2012
PECOTA is an outlier among projection systems for Wandy. Here are the other projections for ERA:
ZIPS 3.89
Bill James 3.93
Rotochamps 3.47
clack - February 23, 2012
3.47 seems as much of an outlier in the other direction, but it is within Wandy’s ability.
linkxmalon - February 23, 2012
PECOTA and Wandy
It looks like PECOTA is tough on pitchers in general this season. Something in the algorithm. Wandy’s ERA is projected 4.33 (Which I think he’ll beat), but he’s given a 46 “Improve” score, which is pretty high. PECOTA is saying Wandy has a 46% chance to improve on his PECOTA 50th-percentile projection. For a pitcher in his 30’s, a 46% chance is very, very high. For comparison, Tim Stauffer (4.16 projected ERA) only has an 11% chance.
In otherwords, PECOTA is recognizing that its relatively high ERA for Wandy is affected by external things such as past injuries. It can’t mathematically take such abstract things into consideration, but it does seem to recognize that those things are there and provides a likelihood that an absence of those things will cause an improvement over his projected stats.
CRPerry13 - February 23, 2012
Looking deeper
The pitchers I’m seeing who have the highest IMPROVE scores are the studliest of studs who routinely beat their projections and guys who have missed a good chunk of time with injuries over the past two seasons.
The studs get a good IMPROVE score because PECOTA weights towards the average, which brings down projections for superstars. It’s recognizing that these guys have the talent to blow away a projection that is brought down mathematically.
The injury-past guys are getting a high IMPROVE score because PECOTA recognizes that their stats are calculated using essentially incomplete seasons’ worth of statistics.
For what it’s worth, Bud Norris’ projected ERA is 4.77, but his IMPROVE score is a whopping 68%, which is the 3rd-highest out of pitchers projected to pitch 150+ innings. That’s a good thing.
CRPerry13 - February 23, 2012
I think PECOTA’s greater emphasis on the distant past performance (compared to other systems) hurts Wandy. Wandy’s performance was pretty bad in his early seasons, but he settled into a good, stable pitcher after about 2007.
clack - February 23, 2012
How can it make all those comparisons, yet still project virtually every one of our pitchers to such high ERAs?
For the starters, I think Wandy and Norris will both be in the 3.50-4.10 range, with Myers and Happ in the 4.10-4.80 range. The 5th starter should be in the 4.50-5.30 range.
Escalona, Lopez, and Carpenter will all have ERAs under 4. Whoever makes up the rest of the bullpen will be wildcards but I doubt more than 2 or 3 will have ERAs over 5.
Snake Diggity - February 23, 2012
Wandy’s good years may be behind him so it’s possible he could become a 4 ERA pitcher.
Timothy De Block - February 23, 2012
I think you’re very optimistic, and PECOTA is slightly pessimistic.
CRPerry13 - February 23, 2012
What’s funny is that in real life I’m a horrible pessimist. Only my internet personality can see the sunshine.
Snake Diggity - February 23, 2012
What would spring training be without a Wandy injury report
http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2012/02/23/wandy-ends-bullpen-session-with-back-tightness-says-hell-be-fine/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
conroestro - February 23, 2012 via mobile
looks like roy is the new roger
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/roy-oswalt-may-sign-midseason.html
conroestro - February 23, 2012 via mobile
i thought the point of signing a one year deal
Was to prove he can stay healthy playing a full year.
lawson3 - February 23, 2012 via mobile
he’s gotten offers just none that he likes.
Timothy De Block - February 23, 2012
i guess he hasnt recieved any
Tractor or Bulldozer related incentives.
lawson3 - February 23, 2012 via mobile
Brewers get Braun back
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/ryan-braun-wins-appeal-will-not-be-suspended.html
conroestro - February 23, 2012 via mobile
Boy, that’s not fishy at all.
MadMartygan - February 23, 2012
at least Braun didn’t have to talk about the whole herpes treatment thing.
clack - February 23, 2012
Ha. I apparently did not dig into this story, enough. Well hearing that it was a decision made by independent arbitration, I guess I’ll trust that the fix wasn’t in. I had initially thought MLB made the decision.
MadMartygan - February 23, 2012
The rumor published in various tabloids was that the positive test was caused by a medication that was prescribed for a severe case of herpes. I don’t know if it was true, but it drew some jokes.
clack - February 24, 2012
Lyon
This article by Jerome Solomon on Brandon Lyon’s attempt to recover from arm surgery is interesting. Lyon talks about pitching through pain the last two years with the Astros. Remember when he had the shoulder cyst removed at the beginning of his first Astros’ spring training? Doctors told him he had a torn rotator cuff then. He found ways to pitch through the pain in 2010, and thought he could do the same last year. He kept changing his arm slot to reduce the pain, but he couldn’t get his pitches to work anymore. Now Lyon says he is completely pain free for the first time in many years. But he has to work on eliminating all of the bad habits (like different arm slots) that he developed with the injury.
I think Brocail may be a good pitching coach to help a rehabbing pitcher like Lyon. Brocail overcame more arm surgeries than most any pitcher I can recall. Brocail says the rehab time for shoulder surgery is a year-plus and for Lyons’ surgery it might be a year-plus-plus. He is trying to keep Lyon from doing too much too fast.
clack - February 25, 2012
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