Bob Levey - Getty Images
Forget about this scene. It will not happen on Opening Day.
We have an early winner for the most obvious headline of 2012, right? After seeing that the Astros invited a unique mix of prospects to spring training on Monday, my thoughts turned to how likely it was that George Springer broke camp with Houston as a starting outfielder.
It was crazy. It was silly. It was ill-advised, but it was what popped into my head all the same. I decided to go home and trot out Baseball Reference to see how many games certain Astro first-round picks had in the minors before reaching the majors. I thought I remembered Craig Biggio getting up to the majors quickly, and Lance Berkman did too, but I wasn't sure how quick.
Turns out both had over 100 games, with Berkman topping 200 minor league games before making his MLB debut. Springer has 8 career games.
That alone is the biggest reason why he won't break camp with the team.
What surprised me is I did find some precedent for a first-round pick not playing very much in the minors. It just so happened to be one of the Astros two former No. 1 overall picks. Floyd Bannister, who was selected out of Arizona State, only needed 7 games in the minors after he was drafted in 1976 before breaking camp with the big league club in 1977.
Bannister went on to post a sub-4.00 ERA and win 16 games in a season, but he did not do either with the Astros. Oh, and he is not a position player. Both of those things bode poorly for Springer.
So, if we're just talking about position players, is there any precedent with other teams? Not really. Mark Teixeira was a pretty sure-fire prospect back in the day, but he spent 86 games in the minors the year after being drafted.
Rickie Weeks actually debuted in the majors the same year he was drafted in 2003, but only spent 7 games in the majors in September and was in the minors for the entire next season. Troy Tulwotzki spent 122 games in the minors before making his debut. Buster Posey spent 125 games in the minors.
Ryan Zimmerman is the closest we came, but even he spent 67 games in the minors the same year he was drafted No. 4 overall and spent 20 games in the majors that same September. He opened the next season as the starting third baseman, but he's got 59 more minor league games than Springer...
Gordon Beckham is another very close test case for Springer, since he signed late, spent 14 games in 2008 in the minors and played 45 more in 2009 before making his MLB debut.
If the Astros followed that timeline, that'd put them calling up mid-May to the big leagues, which could, I guess, be feasible (but not really).
Oh, and don't forget about poster child for this Pete Incaviglia. The college slugger who single-handedly made baseball outlaw draft pick trades never spent a day in the minors, moving straight to the major leagues. Unfortunately, he didn't exactly develop into a future star.
So, does the Astros invitation to Springer mean anything? No, it just gave me an excuse to dig through Baseball Reference for a couple hours. Winning!
0 recs | 28 comments
For some reason, I thought Evan Longoria got to the majors really fast, but he still had 213 minor league games. The Astros’ last first overall pick, Phil Nevin, was picked because he was considered close to ML ready. He went straight to AAA, and played in 241 games over two years. (That quick move to the majors didn’t work out well—-by his own admission, Nevin was not yet mature enough to handle the pressure of the majors, and GM Bob Watson later traded him after he tore up the clubhouse and cursed at the GM.) Phil Nevin is now a minor league manager, which is interesting.
My recollection is that Will “the thrill” Clark didn’t go to the majors for long, and looking it up—-he had only 74 minor league games.
I wonder if Gordon Beckham would have developed better if he had been given more time in the majors? After a great debut season in the majors, he has disappointed. Perhaps pitchers found his batting weakness and buried him.
I would think that Springer is one of the less likely draftees to go straight to the majors. He has great athletic ability, but reported he is somewhat raw around the edges, rather than polished. I think he will need to refine his batting approach against gradually better competition.
clack - February 7, 2012
Contracts
Having Springer in could also be part of a contract clause. IIRC, Jiovanni Mier was invited to Spring Training a couple of years ago because of a clause in his contract. I don’t think it’s all that uncommon for first round picks.
I think the real decision to be made is if the Astros start Springer at Lancaster or Lexington.
Travis Packer - February 7, 2012
the astros.com article said that “contract considerations” were taken into account for the spring invites. both Springer and DDS may have that in their contract. As I mentioned elsewhere, DDS was in spring training with the ML club for a very brief time (I recall that he got a hit), and that was probably in his contract. At this point, DDS may be returning to spring training because they thought it helped last year.
I may be making more of this then is there, but Luhnow’s quotes indicate that they will be in the ML camp for longer than just the 1 or 2 weeks that DDS got last year.
clack - February 7, 2012
Lexington please. I’d rather he didn’t start swinging for the fences right off the bat.
AstroB - February 7, 2012
He’d literally have to bat 1.000.
Best realistic scenario is he destroys Lancaster for 50 games, gets moved up to Corpus, destroys that league for 50 games, and gets a September callup.
But the most likely scenario is he does reasonably well in Lancaster, spends 2013 in AA, and gets called up sometime in 2014.
Snake Diggity - February 7, 2012
springer
good prospect, but we have lots of prospects and are still rebuilding..although we may do better this yr than some think we will. springer goes to minors this year. AA probably. get lots of playing time and see how he does. astro projected lineup.. c snyder or jason c 3b paredes or johnson ss new guy from red sox or the rule 5 guy, 2b downs 1b clee and/or wallace… of hernandez, schaefer, bogusevic…===astros have brought in lots of competition, this is positive, spring training should be an open situation…completely…except pitchers myers and rodriguez and norris…and clee…the rest is open season… at the start…mike h
Mike HJALM - February 7, 2012
If Springer starts in an Astros uniform in April, it would show me that all of this “planning for the long term” stuff that Crane and Lunow have been saying is pure BS.
I don’t expect to see Springer even sniff the majors as a part-timer until September 2013, and possibly not start full-time until June 2014 or April 2015.
CRPerry13 - February 7, 2012
Thats crazy talk brother
You do realize that George was a college junior right? The kid is already 22 years old. The only way I dont see him making a september call up this year is if he absolutely tanks it the minors. You dont let first rd picks at his age teeter in the minors. If they are going to fail it will almost certainly be at the major league level. When baseball teams select kids like him out of college, they are fast tracked to the majors. Watching him in the minors until 2015 would be counterproductive.
Houstonian28 - February 9, 2012
I think it is unlikely that he is a September call-up this year, though I suppose it’s possible if he is tearing up the minor leagues. He is likely to play at the A or A+ level this season, and it is very unusual to bring players from that level as Sept. call ups. If he just tears up his initial league, then it’s possible he could be promoted to AA during the season, and if things went really well, he might be a Sept. call up. I could see an outside possibility of Springer competing for a ML position in 2013, but it really depend on how he has progressed. It’s also possible he is in AAA in 2013 with the possibility of appearing in the majors later that year. That’s my take, anyway.
clack - February 9, 2012
Nothing crazy about it
AA and AAA competition is far and above the competition anybody experiences in college. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Springer in AA by the end of 2012, but I stand by my prediction – we won’t see him in the majors until late 2013 at the earliest.
CRPerry13 - February 9, 2012
The only thing here is that he is the same age as Altuve, Paredes and Martinez. Has there been another situation where the guys you mentioned would of been playing with guys for the most part the same age range across the field? (minus Lee)
Do you think Singleton has a chance to stay if he lights up the pitching? Move Martinez to right and Lee back to left?. He is also very young, but destroyed pitching last year and he was younger then the competition then too.
There have been Pitchers that have come up right away though right? Leake and Bailey (with A"s) Did they ever play a game in the minors? I know they are pitchers but that would be a lot of pressure too.
tony.mengden - February 7, 2012
Truthfully, I don’t think Singleton can make the major league roster out of training camp—-even if he lights up the pitching. Now, if his hitting is spectacular in spring training, then maybe he would be sent to AAA instead of AA. And that would put him closer to getting to the big leagues.
clack - February 7, 2012
Springer Singleton etc. they all have the chance to play themselves into the major league roster. It depends on their progression and age. The team is doing what it should be doing. Astros will recall all of its top prospects over the next few years and let them see if they can handle major league baseball. Its not like we have a situation where we have a top notch major leaguer blocking an up and coming prospect. We stink and will give every player the opportunity to come up and make a name for him self. Singleton is 20 and never played college ball. He will almost certainly have to play at every minor league level unless the organization thinks he can handle it.
Houstonian28 - February 9, 2012
One reason I don’t see Singleton getting ML experience this season is his age. Letting him try out at the ML level has more implications than just letting him get experience at that level; there are service time implications. You don’t want him to become arbitration eligible at age 23, and a free agent before he has even reached his peak age. Bringing him up at too early an age defeats the purpose of relying on young cheap players.
clack - February 9, 2012
I’ll add that Singleton does have some talent ahead of him in Brett Wallace and Kody Hinze, but only in experience and not talent. The Astros will probably find out what they have with Wallace, not so much Hinze, but who knows what develops.
Timothy De Block - February 9, 2012
Why no love for Dierker?
Didn’t LD only have a couple of minor league games? He couldn’t have had too many to make his debut on his 18th birthday. Yeah, I know it’s apples and elephants to compare pitchers to position guys but other pitchers were listed and if LD was mentioned I missed him.
Dirtshirt - February 7, 2012
yeah, I didn’t go back to that era in my comment above, because it’s totally different. Dierker only had 39 minor league innings, but no team would do that with an 18 year old pitcher in today’s game. Al Kaline, a Hall of Fame outfielder, famously never went to the minors—-he went straight from high school to the Tigers at age 18 in 1953. But those were a different era, with different relationships to the minor leagues, with different roster rules, and no “service time rules.” I don’t think it’s comparable.
clack - February 7, 2012
Springer
It’ll be nice for the fans to get a chance to see what he can do at least. Probably heading to A ball though.
jmike - February 7, 2012
The astros.com article stated that the 5 big prospects going to camp wont make the major league roster. The contract considerations taken for him is arbitration. The later he starts the later arbitration starts. They are attending big league camp to get the big league experince, it is great for them.
Astro#1fan - February 7, 2012
I think this is a ploy to get them hungry. Just give them a little taste of what they’re working towards to hopefully encourage them to work harder to get there faster, in turn enspiring their teammates at the lower levels.
Its Gonna Happen - February 7, 2012 via mobile
Talking about straight to the majors position players
Makes me think of Bob Horner. He went directly from Arizona St. to the Braves in 1978. He had a pretty solid run in the big leagues. He even got to play a year for the Yakult Swallows.
farm_stros - February 8, 2012
Pete Incaviglia: no minors
Pete Incaviglia is the only player I ever heard of going from college to the majors without a minor league game. Made the Rangers out of Spring Training after his rights were traded from the Expos.
cracker jack - February 8, 2012
As I mentioned above, Al Kaline went straight from high school to the majors. He was a Hall of Fame outfielder. Here is his wikipedia page. When you consider that even guys like Jackie Robinson, who played both in college, in the Army, and in the Negro League, had to go through the minors, you can see how rare Kaline was.
clack - February 8, 2012
The most recent guy to go straight to the majors was Mike Leake, was it not?
OremLK - February 8, 2012
…as a pitcher. the conversation has gone different directions, but I think we were talking about position players, where it’s pretty rare.
clack - February 8, 2012
Ah, fair enough.
OremLK - February 9, 2012
Dave Winfield and Jim Abbott
and also John Olerud supposedly went from college to the minors as well.
I might be wrong on Abbott, but I remember an in game trivia question that had Winfield and Olerud as never having gone to the minors
strider98 - February 10, 2012
You are correct on Winfield—-and that’s one I knew but had forgotten. That is a fact about Winfield that announcers frequently brought up. My recollection is that Winfield was a great multi-sport college player, and the Padres may have had to promise the ML debut in order to sign him. Jim Abbott was a pitcher, and I recall when he went straight to the majors out of college (though I don’t know if “attendance” considerations may have played a role, since he was publicly renowned as a one arm player). Abbott played in the minors later in his career. You are also correct about Olerud.
Olerud is a very underrated player, but I am surprised that he went directly to the majors. One reason it is a surprise: he was a third round pick. Also, the fact that he was a two way player (pitcher/outfielder) at Washington State would seem to make the “direct to majors” route less likely. In addition, Olerud suffered a brain aneurysm in his last year of college. The Blue Jays moved him from college to the majors in order to use him exclusively as a platoon player. So, it’s almost like the Jays used a platoon arrangement to develop him in lieu of the minor leagues.
clack - February 10, 2012
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