While David was preparing you for our draft coverage, I was putting together these worthy links.
Former MLB playrs join Israel's bid for World Baseball Classic - MLB News | FOX Sports on MSN
By Jon Paul Morosi
Lance Berkman: Hall of Famer? | FanGraphs Baseball
By Dave Cameron
Ultimate Astros " Two years after Astros tired of waiting, Paulino excelling in KC
By Zachary Levine
Mike Zunino stands out as top college bat in Draft | astros.com: News
By Adam Berry
MLB Draft: Potential Draft Eligible Sophomores for 2014 - Minor League Ball
By Matt Garrioch
2012 MLB Draft: Players With Signability Questions - Minor League Ball
By Matt Garrioch
A PITCHf/x Look at Eight Rookie Relievers - Beyond the Box Score
By Nathaniel Stoltz - Rhiner Cruz makes an appearance in the article.
Shin-Soo Choo’s Batting Average on Balls in Play | FanGraphs Baseball
By Eno Sarris
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Houston Astros Friday, May 25, 2012, 9:10 PM CDT Lucas Harrell vs Clayton Kershaw Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 65.
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| Sat 05/26 | 9:10 PM CDT | |
| Sun 05/27 | 3:10 PM CDT | |
Though there were bigger names in the Rice rotation this season, it was the grandson of T.K. Reckling (aka the guy Rice's stadium is named after), who stole the show and became the staff ace.
Reckling flashed stuff all season, with his fastball velocity going anywhere from 86-93 MPH. He threw both a four-seam and a two-seam fastball with a good curveball and a new changeup he's using more and more. Four pitches make a pretty solid starter and Reckling showed that this season.
In 79 innings over 13 starts, Reckling has struck out 92 batters and given up 32 walks. He's got a .178 batting average against with just eight extra-base hits and just one home run. He has two shutouts on the season and has an 8-2 record.
That's quite a drop in walks for Reckling, who had 48 in 78 innings last season with a comparable number of strikeouts. The drop in his senior season is a big reason why he's going to go much higher than the 22nd round he got tabbed in last season.
Consistency has been a problem for Reckling, as he's struggled with both fastball velocity and control of the pitch at times this season. There are some reports of him flashing great stuff with that knockout curve complemented by his emerging changeup. With those pitches and a good two-seamer, he's got pretty good upside.
The good news with Reckling is his floor as a reliever is pretty good. He's got both a great breaking ball and a good change to support a move to the bullpen if needed. Plus, pitching out of the 'pen may let his fastball velocity rise a tick. Still, his age means he's going to have to move quickly if he wants his floor to be higher.
Look for him to be a decent back of the rotation starter in the majors. His strikeout rate is legitimate, but his lack of control could lead to high pitch counts and low inning totals. He might have a good career as a lockdown closer if things break right, too, but I'd think his biggest upside is as a starter.
Neither Keith Law nor Baseball America has Reckling in their respective Top 100 lists. He is listed at No. 179 for BA, which means they expect him to be drafted around Round 6. That's about where I have Reckling pegged, going somewhere in the Top 10 rounds and maybe sneaking into the Top 5. With a developing change and good velocity, he's a big school version of a guy like Nick Tropeano.
The fourth-year senior is guaranteed to sign if he intends to play professionally.
Hey, why are we profiling a Division II guy? He doesn't exactly whow up on any prospect lists, right? Well, like we did last year, we're taking one player off the Central Missouri Mules and profiling them. In case you don't remember, that's the college team new owner Jim Crane played for and still has a presence through.
That doesn't necessarily mean one of these guy will get drafted, but the one that I'm most intrigued in is left-handed starter Lee Stoppelman. The senior enjoyed a breakout performance for the Mules this season, earning Pitcher of the Year honors from the Mid America Intercollegiate Athletic Association. He did that by going 8-0 with a 1.25 ERA, a .215 batting average against and 75 strikeouts in 65 innings.
What's more impressive is that Stoppelman only had nine walks over that stretch. The lanky lefty works to both sides of the plate effectively and really shut down the power production of his opposing hitters. Stoppelman only gave up nine doubles all season and those were the only extra-base hits he allowed.
I've got no scouting reports on how hard he throws or what he throws, but judging from the video, there's a lot to like. I'd bet he's not a hard thrower, but even if he can manage an mid to upper 80s fastball, he'd be tough. That's because of his arm slot, which you can see from the video below the jump comes in almost sidearm. That makes his slider break in quite a bit (from what I could barely tell on the video) and probably helps contribute to his effectiveness.
It's an easy delivery that's not particularly violent or possessing many moving parts, which suggests he's at a slightly lower injury risk. All in all, he's an intriguing small-school guy who could provide some value down the road.
I don't know that a low floor is necessarily because of his injury risk (like many pitchers), but is more because of his velocity. You've seen how hard it has been for Dallas Keuchel to break through to the majors, despite posting good numbers in the minors. Keuchel's velocity will keep him down and may even be preventing him from transitioning into a LOOGY role. That's what I think Stoppelman's floor looks like, a career minor leaguer.
However, because of his funky delivery, there's a chance Stoppelman could have a nice career. Considering his relative lack of innings pitched over the past few seasons, his arm should be good to go for a while. I'd suggest his ceiling right now is that of a Chad Bradford-esque reliever. If he shows he can be durable and throw innings in the minors, we might up that to (dare I say) late-life Jamie Moyer territory, though every soft-tossing lefty gets compared to Moyer. I like the reliever comp better.
I'm guessing if he gets drafted at all, Stoppelman will go in the final 10 rounds of the draft. Think what Houston did with Lamar starter Blake Ford last season, tabbing him in 44th round last year and having him as an arm in short-season ball. Since the draft ends at Round 40 this season, Stoppelman's draft chances should be downgraded accordingly.
As a fourth-year senior, the only way he doesn't sign is if he doesn't really want to play pro baseball.
We're continuing a theme with guys I've actually seen in person. This time, it's University of Houston catcher John Cannon, who played for the Brazos Valley Bombers, a collegiate wooden bat team in the Texas Collegiate League based in Bryan.
I saw Cannon in about two or three games over the course of two summers and came away reasonably impressed. None of the players looked good in this particular wooden bat league, so I can't speak to that part of his game, but he did look pretty good defensively.
That's where I think he'll gain most of his draft value. Guys like Cannon, who have started for years at the college level and have some experience hitting in wood leagues can come in and be an organizational depth guy in the minors for a few seasons.
If Cannon's bat develops, he can move more quickly than that. Houston has seen that with another UH catcher, Chris Wallace. I'm not sure Cannon will have the same power potential as The Good Wallace, but he does have value.
Well, organizational depth is important, right? There's a chance a college guy like never makes it to even Double-A, but there's still value in that.
As I said, this will all depend on his bat. If he can hit passably, Cannon has a shot to be a big-league backup at worst. Think of Humberto Quintero, but maybe not as good a hitter.
I'd bet he gets drafted somewhere after the 20th round.
As a senior, it figures that Cannon will sign if he intends to play professionally.
I shouldn't even be writing this one. It's probably not worth your time. There are few people who have even heard of Brett Brown outside Southeast Texas. But, this is one area where my day job and this job will cross.
Brett Brown is a strikeout machine. The first time I saw him, it was in a playoff game, in his first-ever varsity start in the first round of the playoffs. Brown struck out 17, mixing a decent fastball in with an absolutely brutal slider he was able to throw consistently down and away.
It absolutely ate hitters up. Coming into this season, though, Brown didn't even know if he'd be a starter for the Bulldogs. He thought he might be sent back to his closer role, which he inhabited for much of the previous season.
Brown stuck in the rotation, and preceded to strike out 164 batters in 13 starts this season. I don't have the exact inning count for him, but I think it was around 85 IP for the season. That's pretty good.
The secret for Brown is that slider, which he picked up halfway through his junior season and refined last year. With it, he was able to pick and choose where to throw his 12-6 curve that is also a good pitch. He's got good control of his fastball and understands how to pitch, working hitters and not giving them anything decent to swing at.
In short, he's got that pitcher's thing instead of being just a thrower. I like all those things about him, and I love his potential down the road.
The problem is Brown isn't tall. If I had to guess, I'd say he's about 5-foot-11, but that might be generous. If you know anything at all about baseball scouting, you can guess why's not on anyone's lists. Add in his late start to his career and there's a good chance he'll go to college before popping on anyone's radar.
I could see him pitching at Lamar, doing well there and then getting picked in a middle round in three years. But, man, with a guy can consistently miss bats, why wait? Why not take a chance on him now?
High school arms, especially ones who throw sliders, will not last. You're looking at a pretty significant injury risk. Plus, Brown's sort of a max-effort thrower on his motion, so you've got another injury strike against him. Given all that, I bet he's got a pretty low floor and there's a chance he never makes it past Low A ball. Colton Pitkin only barely did.
Here's the other problem. With his skillset, I see his best value down the road to be in the bullpen. He could definitely be a late-inning arm with that slider-curve-fastball combo. He doesn't throw in the mid-90's, but I don't think you limit him to that. Let him grow some and gain some strength. He's certainly got the mentality to do it.
I will be surprised if he gets tabbed at all, but it wouldn't shock me for a team to take a flier somewhere around Round 30-40.
That's the one thing I haven't talked to Brown about. If I had to guess, I bet he stays in school, which lowers his chances of being drafted even lower. If he can finagle a decent bonus, though? One that makes up for that baseball scholarship he'd be losing? Why not sign?
One of the reasons I added this kid is that I actually saw him pitch in 2011. It was right after I started working for the Port Arthur News and Long was a junior for Barbers Hill pitching against Nederland in a bidistrict playoff series. If I remember correctly, he was outdueled in the game by one of my favorite HS pitchers right now, Mr. Strikeout Brett Brown.
From my recollection, Long is a long, angular guy who has some deception to his delivery, but is a guy scouts can really dream on. You can see from the videos below that his delivery is pretty clean and repeatable. He doesn't have great velocity right now, but you can see his lower half filling out some and really turning up the speed down the road.
Oh, and for those wondering, he's a tall and fall guy on the hill, using every bit of his 6-foot-6 frame. Texas high school pitchers have acquitted themselves well in recent seasons and I have no doubt that Long will be a guy who gets better as he ages. A smart team could tab him early in this draft, lure him away from college and maybe find a gem.
As with most high school arms, the floor here is pretty low. If he never gains velocity, he wont' be more than a possible bullpen arm. The threat of injury also looms, though his mechanics appear clean enough that it isn't a huge red flag there. Patience will also be required with him, which also lowers his floor a bit more than a guy who could be ready quickly.
How high can you dream? If he's got a mid-90's fastball in a few years, Long could be an absolute middle-rotation starter with a good chance to eat some innings. That frame should allow him to pitch quite a bit. Maybe his ceiling is a Scott Elarton-type?
It's hard to tell. He's one of the better high school arms in this draft, but may not be elite enough to get a high slot. I'd expect him to go somewhere around Crosby's Jeremy Gabryszwski and Lufkin's Gandy Stubblefield last season, which puts him around the second to 14th rounds.
These new draft rules throw that up into the air. I, of course, wouldn't object to him joining a budding baseball powerhouse like the Aggies (j/k), but I do think the possibility of him going to college is higher and higher depending on how far he falls in the draft. I figure he'd have to be tabbed in the first five rounds to have a shot at going pro.
